Introduction: The industry as a whole is improving, but there are also companies that are left behind.
"Investor's Network" Zhang Wei
Scarcity is expensive. At present, there are only 20 liquor companies listed on the A-share market in the country, and the number of listed liquor companies is relatively small compared with the more than 5,300 A-share stocks. In addition, Kweichow Moutai, the "king of liquor", has long occupied the first place in the market value of A-share listed companies, and the financial data of liquor listed companies have attracted much attention every annual report release season.
As of the end of April, the 2023 annual reports and the first quarter of 2024 of 20 listed liquor companies have been released. In 2023, the total revenue of listed liquor companies will increase by 16% year-on-year, and the total net profit will increase by 19% year-on-year. Ouyang Qianli, a researcher in the liquor industry, believes that on the whole, the growth rate of listed companies in the liquor industry will be strong in 2023.
Although the large army is "up every day", there are also companies that have fallen behind. According to data from Dongcai Choice, there will be 3 liquor companies losing money in 2023, namely Huangtai Liquor, Golden Seed Liquor and Shunxin Agriculture. Among them, Shunxin Agriculture has become the "loss king" of the liquor sector with -296 million yuan.
In the first quarter of this year, the revenue growth rate of these three companies is still not optimistic. Huatai Securities believes that the liquor industry is characterized by intensified competition and continued differentiation between high, medium and low-end. Looking forward to 2024, Huatai Securities expects the industry to maintain a steady recovery trend, and the characteristics of off-peak season differentiation may be more significant.
The gap in revenue scale has widened
According to data from Dongcai Choice, the 20 A-share liquor companies will achieve a total operating income of 409.2 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 16% from 337.8 billion yuan in 2022; The total net profit attributable to the parent company was 155.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19% from 131.2 billion yuan in 2022.
Xiao Zhuqing, an analyst of China's liquor industry, believes that the steady growth of the liquor industry in the past year reflects the strong ability to resist risks, and also verifies the sustainable growth ability of the A-share liquor sector, and the overall fundamentals of the industry continue to improve.
Specific to each company, Kweichow Moutai still dominates, with a total revenue of 150.6 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 18%. Under Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye firmly occupies the second position in the industry with a revenue of 83.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%.
The third to fifth places in terms of revenue are Yanghe, Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao. However, the revenue of these three companies in 2023 is only more than 30 billion, which is far behind the top two. At the same time, there are also Gujing Gongjiu (20.3 billion yuan), Shunxin Agriculture (10.6 billion yuan) and Jinshiyuan (10.1 billion yuan) that have entered the 10 billion yuan club.
In addition to the above 8, the revenue of the remaining 12 companies in 2023 will be less than 10 billion yuan, and the bottom of Huangtai Liquor will only be 154 million yuan. Huangtai Liquor has been working for a year, and it is not as good as Wuliangye's income in one day (228 million yuan).
A-share liquor companies will be among the top 10 in terms of revenue in 2023
From the perspective of year-on-year revenue growth, Rock Co., Ltd. (Shanghai Guijiu) and Elite ranked the top two with a growth rate of 49% and 37%. However, the sales revenue of Rock Co., Ltd. and Elite in 2023 is relatively small, only 1.6 billion yuan and 2.2 billion yuan respectively, so the reference significance of this growth rate is not very large.
Huatai Securities believes that the Matthew effect of the liquor industry will intensify in 2023, and the gap between the revenue scale of the head liquor companies and the waist and bottom liquor companies will further widen.
3 companies are losing money in 2023
Revenue is only the basic market, and profitability is another important indicator to judge a company's ability to continue operations.
In terms of profitability, Kweichow Moutai is also a "giant" in the liquor industry. In 2023, Kweichow Moutai's net profit attributable to its parent company will reach 74.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%. On the net profit list, Wuliangye also ranked second. In 2023, Wuliangye recorded a net profit of 30.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%.
In addition, liquor companies with a net profit of more than 10 billion yuan in 2023 include Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu and Yanghe Co., Ltd., with 13.2 billion yuan, 10.4 billion yuan and 10 billion yuan respectively. 10 billion yuan is also the threshold of the top 5 profits in the liquor industry.
After TOP5, there was a fault in profitability. Gujing Gongjiu ranked sixth with 4.6 billion yuan, Jinshiyuan ranked seventh with 3.1 billion yuan, and Yingjia Gongjiu ranked eighth with 2.3 billion yuan. In the same period, the net profit of Shede Liquor, Kouzijiao and Shuijingfang in 2023 will all exceed 1 billion yuan.
Top 10 A-share liquor companies in net profit in 2023
It is worth noting that three companies, including Huangtai Liquor, Golden Seed Liquor and Shunxin Agriculture, will lose money in 2023, with net profits of -15 million yuan, -22 million yuan and -296 million yuan respectively. In particular, Shunxin Agriculture will lose 673 million yuan in 2022 and 296 million yuan in 2023, with a total loss of nearly 1 billion yuan in two years.
Shunxin Agriculture said in the annual report that the company's liquor business is profitable, and other businesses are affected by changes in the market environment and industry cyclicality, and the sales price of products continues to be sluggish, resulting in a large loss during the reporting period. The revenue composition shows that liquor accounts for about 64% of Shunxin Agriculture's main revenue in 2023, and other income comes from pork.
In terms of year-on-year growth rate of net profit, the overall performance of the "Huijiu Army" was outstanding. Among the four listed liquor companies in Anhui, Gujing Gongjiu ranked first with 46%, Yingjia Gongjiu ranked second with 34%, and Kouzijiao ranked third with 11%, and Golden Seed Liquor will continue to lose money in 2023, which has been significantly narrowed from the losses of 166 million yuan and 187 million yuan in the previous two years.
In addition, the net profit of Rock Co., Ltd. and Elite in 2023 will be 87 million yuan and 340 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 133% and 106% respectively, ranking among the top 10 in net profit growth. Elite said in its annual report that overseas marketing has made progress, and its main products are sold to Australia, Singapore, Kazakhstan and other countries; At the same time, live broadcast teams were established in Beijing and Tianjin to improve the experience and drive performance growth.
Destocking is still the main task
At the same time as the 2023 annual report of the liquor listed company was released, the first quarter report of 2024 was also released at the same time. According to data from Dongcai Choice, in the first quarter of this year, 20 listed liquor companies achieved a total operating income of 150.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%; The total net profit attributable to the parent company was 62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%.
However, under the general trend of overall growth, there are also some companies that are "weak". As many as five companies saw year-on-year revenue declines in the first quarter. Among them, the most obvious is the drunkard's wine.
According to the first quarterly report, the operating income of alcoholic liquor in the first three months of this year was 494 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 49%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 73.38 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 76%. In 2023, the revenue and net profit of alcoholic liquor will decline by 30% and 48% year-on-year, respectively. As for the reasons for the continuous decline in performance, Jiuguijiu said that the liquor industry as a whole is still in a period of adjustment, the price of liquor products is under pressure, and the consumer demand for sub-high-end products and above has yet to recover.
In addition, Huangtai Liquor, Golden Seed Liquor, and Shunxin Agriculture, which will lose money in 2023, are not optimistic about their revenue growth in the first quarter of this year, with a year-on-year decrease of 6%, 3%, and 1% respectively. However, Golden Seed Liquor and Shunxin Agriculture have begun to rebound, making profits of 17.64 million yuan and 451 million yuan respectively in the first quarter of this year, a year-on-year increase of 143% and 37%.
There is a view that the common characteristics of Huangtai Liquor, Golden Seed Liquor and Shunxin Agriculture are: low-end products, limited brand added value, and Huangtai Liquor and Golden Seed Liquor are still regional liquor.
In addition, contract liabilities are known as the performance reservoir of wine companies, so many investors pay attention to this indicator. The top two leading companies are still Kweichow Moutai and Yanghe, with contract liabilities of 14.1 billion yuan and 11.1 billion yuan respectively in 2023, which are outstanding. During the same period, the contract liabilities of Tianyoude Liquor, Elite and Huangtai Liquor were less than 100 million yuan, which was better than nothing.
However, the contract liabilities of listed liquor companies in 2023 are on a downward trend as a whole. Except for a few companies such as Gujing Gongjiu (69%) and Tianyoude Liquor (49%), the year-on-year growth rate of contract liabilities of most companies was negative. This also shows that in 2024, wine companies will still face greater pressure to destock.
According to data from Dongcai Choice, as of the end of 2023, the total inventory of 20 listed liquor companies reached 149.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%. Among them, the inventory of Kouzijiao, Golden Seed Liquor and Tianyoude Liquor accounted for more than 40% of its total assets; The inventory of Yanghe shares and Shanxi Fenjiu is also close to 20%.
On the other hand, the decline in contract liabilities is also transmitted to 2024. In the first quarter of this year, the contract liabilities of more than half of the listed liquor companies fell year-on-year, and the decline ratio of Shunxin Agriculture, Jiugui Liquor and Golden Seed Liquor exceeded 30%. Western Securities said that the liquor industry will still be in a destocking cycle in 2024. Cai Xuefei, an observer of the liquor industry, believes that liquor companies need to strengthen channel management and reduce warehouse costs to cope with the current market challenges.
During the 2024 Chengdu Sugar and Wine Fair, Xiao Zhuqing, a marketing professional, once put forward a point of view: at present, the national brand pattern of the liquor industry has been solidified, and regional famous liquor listed companies rely on capital financing advantages and regional cultural symbols to seek breakthroughs, and regional famous brands will be a new trend in the development of the liquor industry. Under the general trend of the overall improvement of the industry, it remains to be seen which regional liquor brands will be able to run out in the future. (Produced by Thinking Finance)