(Image is AI-generated)
The performance stock price suffered a "double kill" of the "first brother of the diaphragm" Enjie shares (002812. SZ), the performance briefing will never lack attention. On the afternoon of May 13, at the 2023 online collective reception day for investors of listed companies in Yunnan jurisdiction, it has become the focus of investors' attention, from overcapacity to overseas expansion, from solid-state batteries to stock price trends, the company has once again been "asked" by investors.
However, the titanium media APP noticed that there were many questions that had not been replied to, and there was a suspicion of selective reply.
There is no excess capacity for high-end diaphragms in the world
After the rapid expansion of production in the past few years, the production capacity and advantages of China's lithium battery industry chain have expanded dramatically. However, from the second half of 2023, there will be overcapacity, and separators, one of the four main materials for lithium batteries, are no exception. Even, a few days ago, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a solicitation of opinions to guide the backward production capacity of lithium batteries to accelerate the clearance.
According to data jointly released by EVTank and Ivey Economic Research Institute, global lithium battery separator shipments will exceed 21 billion square meters in 2023, with China accounting for more than 83% of 17.69 billion square meters. However, according to the latest data from SMM, at present, China's annual production capacity of lithium battery separators is 28.2 billion square meters, and the capacity utilization rate is about 50%. From August 2023, with the release of new capacity and weaker demand, the operating rate fell all the way to 42% in February 2024.
The expansion of the leading Enjie shares shows the madness of the industry's capacity expansion, and its diaphragm production capacity has soared from 3.3 billion square meters in 2020 to 9.384 billion square meters by the end of 2023. Fortunately, its capacity utilization rate in 2023 will be 83.22%, which is higher than the industry level.
"From the perspective of global scope and future demand, there is no excess capacity of high-end lithium battery separators, the company's capacity utilization rate is high, and the market share is leading in the industry." For the problem of overcapacity in the industry, Yu Xue, secretary of the board of directors of the company, replied that there is currently excess domestic low-end production capacity, so the company will actively respond to maintain the company's high capacity utilization, continue to develop the market, especially the overseas market customer development and overseas capacity construction, increase the promotion of new products, further optimize the product structure and customer structure, strengthen internal management, reduce costs and increase efficiency.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has issued a draft for comments to guide battery companies to reduce the simple expansion of production capacity manufacturing projects, whether the company's technical reserves can meet the manufacturing requirements of the new generation of separators? Yu Xue said that the company's product and technical reserves, capacity utilization and R&D investment intensity can meet the relevant requirements.
It is expected that supply and demand will be balanced and stable in the second half of this year
The direct consequence of overcapacity is the downward trend in the price of diaphragm products, and even the leading Enjie shares need to reduce prices to grab the market.
The annual report shows that in 2023, the company will achieve revenue of 12.042 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.36%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.527 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.84%. Especially in Q4 last year, the net profit attributable to the parent company was only 373 million yuan, down 50.20% month-on-month and 51.81% year-on-year. The company's gross profit margin also decreased from 47.94% in 2022 to 36.29% in 2023.
(Quarterly performance of Agile shares, source: 2023 annual report)
In the first quarter of this year, the company achieved revenue of 2.328 billion yuan and net profit attributable to the parent company of 158 million yuan, down 9.38% and 75.64% year-on-year. Obviously, the profitability in Q1 has further declined compared to Q4 last year. The company explained that the main reason is the decrease in selling prices.
At the performance briefing on April 24, the company said frankly that the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 are the two most difficult quarters, and on the supply side, the new effective production capacity of the entire market since the end of 2023 is less, and most of the production capacity is still in the process of verification, introduction and climbing.
However, the company is obviously optimistic about the market outlook, "the most difficult time has passed, the current price is at a historical low, and it is expected that supply and demand will be balanced and stable in the second half of 2024, and there will be no large-scale concentrated release of production capacity." The company will also continue to increase capacity utilization, improve technology, and expect profit margins to gradually recover. The company's overseas production capacity is planned to be gradually mass-produced and supplied in the third quarter, which will effectively improve the overall capacity utilization. It is expected that overseas demand will maintain growth momentum in the next few years, and the market is expected to improve in the future. ”
At the collective reception day, the company also replied to investors: "With the continuous introduction and penetration of new models and new technologies, the overall promotion of the development of new quality productivity in the industry, and the continuous enhancement of overseas exports, which in turn drives the increasing demand for high-end lithium battery separators, and the company has firm confidence in the long-term development of the global lithium battery industry." ”
Speed up going to sea
As said, there is overcapacity in China, and the company will look overseas. In 2023, the company's overseas revenue will be 2.017 billion yuan, accounting for 16.75% of revenue. Compared with the overseas revenue of 1.332 billion yuan in 2022, accounting for 10.58%, the overseas business expanded, but the gross profit margin of the overseas business also decreased by 11.56% year-on-year.
The company is speeding up the construction of overseas production capacity. According to the annual report, the company's Hungarian lithium battery separator production base has been completed, the first coated film production line has been started in 2023, and the first base film production line has been completed. Yu Xue replied to investors: "The Hungarian base is fully engaged in the verification of a number of overseas customers, and it is expected that the production line will start mass production in the second half of the year according to the completion of customer verification." ”
At the same time, the company also plans to build new production capacity in the United States, but at the beginning of this year, the company announced that it intends to adjust the lithium battery separator project in the United States: the investment amount will be adjusted from about 916 million US dollars to about 276 million US dollars, and the construction of an annual production capacity of 10-1.2 billion square meters of base film production line and supporting coating equipment will be adjusted to the construction of 14 lithium battery coating separator production lines with an annual production capacity of 700 million square meters.
As for the reasons for reducing the investment and production capacity of the U.S. project, Yu Xue replied to the titanium media APP that the main reason is that the company is to speed up the process of the lithium battery separator film project in the United States, so as to quickly respond to the needs of customers in North America and increase the global market share of the company's separator products.
However, on the question of whether the pace of capacity expansion will be slowed down in the future, it only said, "The company will speed up the progress of overseas construction and market development, and the current US project is progressing smoothly as planned." ”
It is worth mentioning that since the beginning of this year, solid-state/semi-solid-state batteries have continued to have good news, especially in the recent past, car companies, battery factories, scientific research institutes, etc. have officially announced new semi-solid-state battery products and R&D breakthroughs, and there is a trend of industrialization acceleration. Since there is no separator between the positive and negative electrodes in solid-state batteries, the market generally believes that solid-state batteries may affect the demand of the separator industry.
In this regard, Yu Xue replied to the titanium media APP that it had already carried out relevant research and development and layout. In December 2021, the company jointly established Jiangsu Sanhe Battery Material Technology Co., Ltd. with Beijing Weilan New Energy and Liyang Tianmu Pioneer, two domestic companies that have earlier deployed semi-solid-state batteries and related materials, and the company is the controlling shareholder and actively promotes the industrialization of semi-solid-state battery projects. At present, some of the equipment of Jiangsu Sanhe has been installed, and Jiangsu Sanhe has the production capacity of semi-solid-state battery separators, and the products and technical reserves are sufficient, which can provide customers with customized products and services. ”
"The company laid out an all-solid-state project three years ago, mainly engaged in the research and development of all-solid-state sulfides, solid-state electrolytes and other related materials, and achieved a breakthrough in technology and mass production in 2023." Yu Xue said that the company will continue to pay attention to the technological development of all-solid-state batteries, increase technology investment and market development.
(This article was first published in Titanium Media APP, author|Su Qitao)