In tweets, the author often reviews the history of A-shares, and often cites trading data. History doesn't simply repeat itself, and data doesn't reveal patterns, but they allow me to reduce my blindness and prepare for the next phase. After the Spring Festival, in addition to the sharp drop on the first day, the market has risen for three consecutive weeks, can it rise again? During this period, it has been the technology sector leading, and the small and mid-cap growth style has risen, or buy them? To answer these questions, we need to clarify a few questions. First of all, who is rising and who is falling, and secondly, who is leading this wave of market. [Who's up, who's down]
From the top 200 lists, individual stocks rose by 258.78% at most, rose by 44.76% at least, and rose by 71.11% on average, with an average market value of 23.2 billion, an average stock price of 52 yuan, an average price-earnings ratio (i.e., PB) of 160 times, an average price-to-book ratio (i.e., PB) of 7.7, and the industry is concentrated in electronics and computers.
From the top 200 lists, the largest drop of 32.22%, the smallest drop of 11.48%, the average drop of 14.71%, its average market value of 12.2 billion, the average stock price of 10 yuan, the average PE is 50 times, the average PB1.8, the industry is mostly in real estate, transportation.
Overall, the most obvious difference between rising and falling tickets is the industry, and stock price, PE (price-earnings ratio), and PB (price-to-book ratio) are all secondary factors. The PE and PB of technology stocks are both high, and they are rising and rising. Real estate, mining PE and PB are low, but individual stocks are still falling.
[Who is leading this wave of market]
Generally, retail investors and floating capital relatively prefer to buy low-priced stocks (low PB, low PB), and do not like high-priced stocks, and most of the people who buy high-priced stocks are institutions. Institutions should also be divided into domestic and foreign capital, and the investment philosophy and behavior habits of the two are not the same. Let's take a look at the movement of northbound capital (that is, foreign investment), which has been attracting attention. At the beginning of 2020, northbound funds basically had a net inflow every day, but since the day the epidemic was officially confirmed, the attitude of northbound funds has not been so firm - except for the days when they plummeted and bought big, there were net outflows for many days.
The red pillar that was particularly high after the 21st was the first day of the market opening after the Spring Festival, and northbound funds bought the bottom in a big way, and as A-shares rose higher and higher, their buying enthusiasm weakened significantly. Interestingly, the change in the balance of the two financing funds in the same period is basically the opposite of the northbound funds - the two financing funds first fled, and were at a low level when they plummeted after the holiday, and then gradually rebounded, especially in the past week, the inflow of the two financing funds accelerated, and the balance hit a new high in the stage, as shown in the figure below
Foreign capital likes to pick up cheap, and if it rises, it will reduce its position; In addition to some hesitation in the early stage, domestic investors followed the trend all the way to long, and this wave of market was obviously dominated by domestic capital.
[Looking back on history is to guide the future].
This wave of market is driven by institutions, and retail investors are not yet fully active. If the market continues to be active and retail investors enter the market in large numbers, there is a high probability that there will be a wave of market for penny stocks. Institutions have been buying tech stocks before, but now everyone knows that the bubble in tech stocks is big, and high-priced tech stocks need new stimulus, such as good performance. Undervalued stocks are not popular at the moment, but if the market can continue, such stocks are likely to make up for the gains.
In any case, the current situation is that domestic institutions are piling up on technology stocks, at least forming a gathering of funds in the core stock circle, just like the white horses in the past. Financing funds are the courage to chase up, the pursuit of high-risk funds, as long as the trend is in, they are not afraid of high, you say that the valuation of technology stocks is high, people talk about growth, you say that growth can not grow so fast, people say that as long as it rises, there is hope. Let's not go against the trend and feel that if you can't buy it, you can't increase your position, but I don't think you should easily reduce your existing position. This wave of rise has not been decently adjusted so far, and it has not given the short riders a chance to get on the bus, and when there are people waiting to buy it on the sidelines, the trend often does not end so easily.
There are also questions about choice, my idea is: dare to chase up, willing to take big risks, buy GEM or technology; If you are more timid and want to take a small and medium-sized car, buy CSI 500; If you want to buy slowly, you can buy optional consumption, automobiles, real estate, and infrastructure
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