Preface
When we take a closer look at the April 2024 Financial Statistics Report, we can see an intriguing phenomenon: the mainland's RMB deposits fell by 3.92 trillion yuan in April. There is no doubt that the economic arena is undergoing subtle changes, and before this huge turning point, each of us has the responsibility and obligation to deeply interpret the economic signals behind this phenomenon.
China's economic inflection point is coming, how to seize the opportunity in the next three years
In the past two years, RMB deposits have continued to hit record highs like a magnificent golden bull, and the per capita deposits of residents even exceeded 100,000 yuan at the beginning of this year. But now the golden bull seems to be out of breath and is starting to show weakness. Deposits began to decline in April, which was like a sharp alarm bell, piercing the tranquility of the past and heralding the beginning of a new drama on the economic stage.
The overwhelming number of financial freaks is speculating wildly: What kind of signal is this? In fact, the answer is self-evident and obvious to all. The reason why deposits have been increasing before is because people are not willing to invest and do not want to spend. But you see, now that deposits are decreasing, this undoubtedly indicates that these idle funds are starting to flow to the investment and consumer markets. If you're as smart as you are, you should be able to guess that this is definitely a subversive positive for stimulating the economy.
So, what kind of undisguised challenges will our wallets face? Everything is just a prologue.
Property Market and Policy Trend Analysis: Is It a Good Time to Buy a House?
Sometimes the stage of the economy is like an undirected drama, and the endless plots are dazzling. Recently, on the two major stages of Hangzhou and Xi'an, the tight spell of purchase restriction was suddenly removed, so the market value of 2 cities, 600 million people, and trillions of dollars was expected to be placed in the spotlight.
Hangzhou and Xi'an have broken the old rules of purchase restrictions, and people's originally tense heartstrings have slowly relaxed. As we all know, buying a house is an important thing, and the lifting of the purchase restriction policy will naturally drive the enthusiasm of home buyers, and at the same time, this news has also attracted widespread attention across the country, because it may mean that a nationwide wave of purchase restriction cancellations is quietly brewing.
Will house prices drop because of the lifting of purchase restrictions? Don't be stupid, it's not that simple! Although the lifting of purchase restrictions can bring about the release of some demand, the foundation of the high operation of housing prices has not changed. We need to be more cautious about whether or not it's a good time to buy a home.
At the same time, Zhaoqing, Guangdong, was like a cannonball, stirring up a storm of canceling the public stall. The abolition of the pooled area will allow more area to be put into use, which is undoubtedly good news for savvy consumers. But who can guarantee that a house with no public pooling will be worth buying? As for this question, like the ending of all good detective novels, the answer is revealed only at the end.
See clearly, your money shouldn't be in the bank anymore
Look at your wallet again, and now you can only helplessly watch the money bag deflated day by day. And what about your bank account? It looks lifeless, like an empty alley, for people to come and go. Where does your money go? It hides in the deepest depths, stands there, and freely looks down on the world. Your money is no longer willing to lie on the bank counter, but is looking forward to soaring freely in the investment and consumer market.
What's going on? The real careerist, the country, is so good at playing. We are vigorously persuaded to take out the money, break the old rules, inject the vitality we deserve, and keep the economic wheel moving forward. It's like a magician's baton so that a grey monster like the bank can no longer put its claws into our purse. Minsheng Bank, like a time bomb, canceled large certificates of deposit, which is a blessing for us, but for the bank that has become dependent, it may be a disaster.
The huge loss of U.S. bonds is not just a butterfly effect. When the black hand behind the scenes is waving fan-shaped bamboo chips, when the former warriors are stumbling like stumbling, we should not be stupidly waiting for the golden apple to smash on our heads, but should seize this opportunity and sail away. Seeing your hard-earned money condensed in the bank start to move, do you still want to deposit in the bank again?
[How the global environment affects China's economy: European interest rate cuts and possible U.S. rate cuts]
Looking up, there is a raging global financial sea, the latest of which is the interest rate cuts in Europe and the United States. But what new challenges and opportunities will they bring to China's economy?
Europe's interest rate cut, China's foreign trade, is like a timely spring rain, this kind of warm rain makes China's eyes full of hope when looking forward to the future. The volatility brought about by interest rate cuts is a good thing for China's foreign trade industry. According to the logic of black coffee, the European interest rate cut will lead to the inflow of funds into China, because China's return on investment is high, and this huge capital flow is about to pry the door of China's economy.
Look at the United States again, it's completely annoying. With high interest rates, its existence is like a seemingly benign monster to the economy, but it is destroying countless fragile little lives behind it. Especially for other countries around the world, such as China, the relationship has become more complicated. As early as when the Federal Reserve announced a rate hike, the global market had already set off a bloody storm, and the impact gradually spread, even putting some pressure on China's economy.
The impact of the global environment on us is complex and subtle. Of course, we must not be deterred, and only by better understanding and adapting to these changes can we continue to move forward on the global economic stage. How will we deal with this journey?
Embracing the big rally: how to deploy assets to obtain future returns
The bell for the big rebound is about to ring, are you ready? Let's start with the valuation of Hong Kong stocks and A-shares. After experiencing a volatile market, the valuation of Hong Kong stocks has been finalized, like a huge pendulum of reality. As for A-shares, they seem to be unstable, but they are full of hope. Money on a global scale seems to be waiting for a small signal at the top of this pyramid, and once this signal appears, the world's money could flood into this market.
How to grasp this opportunity and how to arrange their own assets? It's like a game of adventurers, and we have to learn to use time and space to complete the layout. The key that investors need to grasp is how to effectively use existing resources, conform to market rules, and strategize in order to ultimately make profits.
epilogue
You may encounter a variety of variables in the coming days, but remember that we still have a long way to go. I hope this content has some inspiration for your asset layout, and I hope we can walk through the future days together. Of course, the future is left to the future, and what we do today is to do better in the present. Let's welcome the arrival of the big rebound together!