In the first half of April, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 50%, and it seems that it will be on an equal footing with oil vehicles. However, the momentum did not catch up, so that the final figure fell to 43.7%.
Judging from the current situation, more people still choose oil trucks.
After all, after a hundred years of development, oil trucks have reliable technology and mature quality, which makes people more trusted. In contrast, new energy vehicles always have a somewhat semi-finished feeling.
Many people did not hesitate, they unswervingly chose the oil truck, and then went south and north, and the experience was quite wonderful.
However, some practitioners said that don't look at the present is wonderful, in the next 3 years, people who buy oil cars may be very anxious.
Why? If you want to control the future, you must start with the present of oil trucks.
What is the current state of oil trucks?
Nowadays, if there is still hope for the future of gasoline vehicles, it may be laughed at.
Stop talking about the slowdown of electrification in the West, the fact is that not only is it not slowing down, it is accelerating.
It is important to understand that [market slowdown] and [R&D slowdown] are far from fallacious.
For example, from the perspective of the market, oil trucks have half of the share, and 0 investment can cut leeks, so naturally slow down the entry of trams and eat more of the old capital.
But R&D is different, it requires a high time cost. After all, a feature I don't know if you need it or not.
Therefore, not only can we not slow down, but we must also increase investment and carry out advanced research on the next generation of technology.
Taking Mercedes-Benz as an example, it has long been done with L3 intelligent driving, MB. OS self-developed car machine. Volkswagen has just invested an additional 19 billion yuan in the electric transformation.
He doesn't work hard, but he actually works harder than anyone else.
It is not difficult to see that the rotten position of many car companies is planned and organized, but not casual.
For example, in April this year, SAIC Volkswagen's share fell to 6th, which is a record low, why is it still calm?
The answer is that it was all expected, and the strategy had already been decided, one word - "boil".
What does that mean? It's until 2027! At this node, the electricity is in and out, and it can't be eaten.
So, go all out to transform.
Prior to this, in order to make the oil car stand out, the tram was deliberately made very weak. After that, the attitude turned around, the oil car loved it, and the tram immediately piled up parameters.
However, when it comes to technology and parameters, let's not forget how big the Volkswagen is.
For example, Porsche, Bentley, Audi, Lamborghini and other subsidiaries are enough to shake off a little technology.
It is not difficult to understand that the current situation of oil trucks is that there will be no more technical iterations in the last wave of leeks.
But even so, why is it said that this year is going well, but after 2-3 years, I will be anxious?
If you look at it from a dynamic perspective, you will understand it in an instant.
Why will oil trucks be very anxious in the next 3 years?
It's easy to understand. In fact, many people regret it when they just buy a petrol car, and they want to change cars
After all, although the oil truck is stable, it actually has no experience. However, although the tram and hybrid are not perfect, the highlights are remarkable, the quietness and acceleration of the tram, and the economy and intelligence of the hybrid, the experience can be called invincible.
But for ordinary car owners, they have bought all the oil cars, what else can they do?
Therefore, instinctively resisting the tram is nothing more than looking for psychological comfort, and does not actually discriminate against the tram.
And, by the time it comes to 2026-2027, the first solid-state batteries will come out, with a 3-4 times increase in power.
In addition, solid-state batteries are non-flammable, and power and safety anxiety are swept away.
In addition, the rapid iteration of technology, the rapid reduction of prices, and the rapid decentralization of intelligent driving and intelligent cockpits
In addition, new energy vehicles are gradually popularized, which is the saying "bad street".
In this situation, the significant difference in the experience of oil and electricity is the feeling of being outdated, every time you step on the accelerator, it will swell in the blood, and it is impossible to ignore it.
On the other hand, the electric oil intake and oil retreat have become a reality, which will inevitably make the experience of oil trucks worse.
This is easy to understand, in the era of oil cars, niche cars are the hardest hit area of car maintenance.
Based on the node of Volkswagen 2027, at this time, no matter what brand the oil car is, it is a niche car.
The troubles are obvious, such as the reduction of the value retention rate, the increase in the cost of parts, and the increase in maintenance costs.
The bigger trouble is, you know, the follow-up maintenance of oil trucks is quite dependent on 4S shops.
However, from the perspective of industry trends, car companies are decoupling from 4S stores.
After all, there are too many cats in the 4S store, and it is not easy to control. Direct sales are the future.
For example, how can follow-up OTA functions such as car machine and intelligent driving be strongly linked to security, so how can they be handed over to a third party to maintain?
This is also why, like Tesla, Xiaomi, and Huawei are all directly operated. Traditional car companies are also exploring direct sales, such as the Great Wall has just opened 33 direct stores.
The direct consequence of this is that in a few years, the density and service quality of 4S stores will be greatly reduced, and it is difficult to guarantee that the price will not rise on the ground, adding more cats.
It's really uncomfortable to think that for the rest of your life, you will inevitably have to deal with this situation.
In this case, anyone with some foresight will not want to touch the oil truck.
So what to do?
But what should you do if you have to buy a petrol car? There are only 2 considerations to be made.
First of all, don't plan to use the car for a long time
To put it mildly, look at the iteration speed of today's technology, and think about the way to travel in the next 10 years.
Therefore, when pure electric/hybrid is not yet mature, it is extremely smart to make a transition with a fuel car.
Once the development of pure electric/hybrid can meet its own needs, or can dispel its own doubts, at this time, the fuel car will be launched. On the one hand, it avoids the depreciation loss of a lot of value. On the other hand, the optimal solution of the actual travel experience is obtained.
And, remember, it's not too late to speak.
The reason why I say this is that taking into account the macro development of the industry, that is, "oil and electricity have the same rights".
At that time, "privileges" such as purchase tax and green cards on trams will no longer exist.
For example, some cities are really difficult, a little earlier oil to electricity, a green card, can be less worried about breaking a few hairs.
After all, in this world, there really is nothing more precious than hair.
The second is that only the cost-effective car is considered
To put it bluntly, in 2024, oil cars and luxury cars have been completely decoupled.
If you still expect to enjoy a luxurious experience through a "BBA", a second-tier luxury car, it would be ridiculous to be respected.
This is by no means a lie, the data proves it, in the first quarter of this year, the second-tier luxury cars have been completely eliminated, and in April, the BMW X5 began to fall behind.
To put it bluntly, don't blow the emptiness into magic, and honestly be the most simple means of transportation.
Based on reality, if there are more than 200,000 oil trucks, don't touch them.
In general, no matter now or in the future, there is no experience of oil trucks.
After all, the oil truck technology has long been "locked" by the three-body people.
At most, car companies will "change shells" and refresh the engine model.
And the technology that really has weight must be reserved for the tram.
This will inevitably lead to the fact that in another 2-3 years, from all aspects such as economy, comfort and intelligence, oil vehicles will be hit by tram dimensionality reduction, and will suffer from higher maintenance costs, it is difficult not to be anxious.
In this reality, don't really be hard-mouthed. For example, if you can't stick to a functional machine for a year now, don't make the mistake of thinking that you can still tolerate a petrol car in a few years.