On the Internet, the prosperity of new energy vehicles is everywhere, and even many media claim that the penetration rate of trams has exceeded 50%, and those who buy oil cars have become a minority!
However, when we walk down the streets and look around, those green license plates – the hallmarks of new energy vehicles – don't seem to be as common as the numbers suggest.
This phenomenon makes people wonder: is the actual popularity of trams more or less? Is it possible that this is a hoax at all?
What exactly is the answer? To understand the problem, we must first understand what the so-called penetration rate is all about.
01 What is the concept of permeability?
Many people may have some misunderstandings about permeability.
You might think that this refers to how many green cars there are on the street, but that's not the case.
The penetration rate tells us what percentage of sales of green cars will be over a given period of time.
To put it simply, if 1 million cars were sold last year, of which 500,000 were green cars, then the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 50%.
Therefore, when I hear reports that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 50%, this may mean that at a certain time, such as April this year, for every two cars sold, one is a new energy vehicle.
However, if we look at the data for the whole of 2023, the picture is not so rosy.
According to the annual data, new energy vehicles accounted for 31.6% of total vehicle sales, totaling 9.495 million units - compared with the sales of the entire fuel vehicle, it is still less than one-third.
Therefore, the development of electric vehicles has only just begun, and it can be said that there is a long way to go.
So in reality, are there so many or not many trains at present?
02 Are there many trains?
Regarding this, according to the data released by the Ministry of Public Security, by the end of 2023, the number of green cars in the country will reach 20.41 million, which accounts for 6.07% of the total car ownership, an increase of 38.76% compared with last year.
These figures reveal the fact that although new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, have grown steadily in the mainland, they are still at a low level compared to fuel vehicles in terms of total volume.
Although it cannot be denied that the figure of 50.39% in April is very gratifying, which is 11 years ahead of the national target set in 2035.
But considering that nothing can change overnight, there is still a long way to go in the development of electric cars.
Especially in terms of the construction of charging piles, although the distribution density of major cities has been very high, the coverage of remote areas is still at a low level.
In some sparsely populated northern areas, there are even charging piles that have long been abandoned and no one maintains them - how to balance the interests of these areas and do a good job in the coverage and maintenance of special areas is also a problem that needs to be considered.
In addition, the efficiency of charging piles should also be improved as soon as possible.
After all, 800V technology has now blossomed, allowing many electric cars to be able to charge for 12 minutes and range up to 500 kilometers.
In such a situation, if the power of the charging pile is maintained at about 120kW, the development of electric vehicles will definitely be affected, and the popularization rate will gradually slow down.
Having said all this, is new energy vehicles a pseudo demand, or a future trend?
03 Is it a scam or not?
In fact, this problem is easy to understand, you don't need to look at the performance and economy of the tram, just look at the reaction of mainstream car companies.
On the one hand, from a global perspective, almost all car companies are still developing in the direction of electrification.
Toyota, Volkswagen, or Ford have not given up on electrification, they are just slowing down – and this must be clarified.
Because unlike China, their infrastructure construction is slow, their supply chains are underdeveloped, and labor costs are still high.
Therefore, the price of trams is still very expensive, and there are very few charging piles, so it is definitely not realistic to come directly to the Great Leap Forward.
Therefore, from the perspective of the mainstream trend, they are now focusing on hybrids and aiming for pure electric development.
For example, Ford issued an announcement on April 3, 2024, indicating that the company is refocusing its attention on hybrid vehicles rather than electric vehicles.
At the same time, Toyota has been focusing on the development of hybrid technology.
On the other hand, looking at their attitude towards Chinese cars can also indicate the future trend.
For example, this Beijing Auto Show is very typical, the air tickets from Europe to Beijing are speculated to 10,000 euros, and at this price, many foreigners can't buy it.
You must know that in the past, we went to foreign countries to participate in auto shows, took a tape measure, knelt on the ground, and studied other people's advanced cars.
And now, it has become a foreigner who uses a tape measure to measure domestic cars, and the platform of a number of new forces is crowded - this directly explains the problem.
To put it bluntly, if this thing is a pseudo demand, why did Toyota start cooperating with Huawei? Why did Volkswagen invest money in Xpeng and decide to use Xpeng's electrical architecture for future electric cars?
It's certainly not that there's something wrong with them!
It can only be said that this time we have finally come to the forefront, and Chinese cars have finally had a chance to stand up, right?