To summarize last week's votes,
To be honest, it was quite unexpected~
In the context of the "partial stock mixed fund index" has turned red,
There are 41% of people who still lose 10%+...
01
Voting started on the evening of May 8, so let's take a look at the market as of May 7.
broad-based index,
As of May 7, Wind All A fell 0.02%, and the partial stock hybrid fund index rose 0.63%, representing the market average index has recovered its capital.
Among them, the broad market index performed better, with the CSI 300 up 6.64% and the Shanghai Composite Index up 5.81%.
The small and medium-cap index fell sharply, with the Beijing Stock Exchange 50, the Micro Cap Index, the Science and Technology Innovation 100, and the CSI 2000 all falling by more than 10%.
industry index,
The value industry rose by more than 10%, including home appliances, banks, coal, nonferrous metals, and petroleum and petrochemicals.
Computers and real estate fell sharply, down 10%+.
In the track industry, food and beverage rose 3.08%, new energy fell 2.83%, medicine fell 6.8%, and electronics fell 9.75%.
02
In terms of funds,
(1) Active funds
In the latest issue of active funds with more than 50% equity positions,
54.63% have achieved positive returns this year,
35.54% lost no more than 10%,
Only 9.83% of funds lost more than 10%.
Among them, the list of funds with a loss of more than 10% and a scale of more than 1 billion is here:
Many are pharmaceutical, semiconductor-related funds, and some new energy, military, and quantitative funds.
(2) Index funds
Index funds are similar,
56.48% of the funds have positive returns this year.
Funds with a loss of more than 10% accounted for only 10.52%.
A list of index funds that have lost more than 10% of their funds is here:
It is mainly related to medicine, semiconductors, computers, science and technology innovation boards, real estate, and small caps.
03
generally
There are only about 10% of the funds that lose more than 10%.
These funds are mainly concentrated in semiconductor, computer, pharmaceutical and other industries.
As for quantitative and micro-cap strategy funds, they are relatively differentiated, some have turned red, but some still lose 10%+.
And here comes the question,
Only about 10% of the funds lose more than 10%, how can nearly half of the people lose more than 10%?
The lazy cat thought about it, it may be due to several reasons:
1) I read the wrong option
What we count is "whether there is a return to the book in 2024", but some people understand it as "the book since the buy".
Is there a friend who does this, you can say it in the comment area~\
2) Some people have a large risk appetite and are heavily invested in semiconductor, pharmaceutical, and micro-cap strategy funds
The article had 12,000 views and a voter count of 1,044, with a turnout of 9%.
In general, active people tend to interact with the population more and have a greater risk appetite. Among the people who voted, the proportion of these funds that are heavily held may be higher.
3) The meat is cut at a low level
As I said in the first quarterly report,
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4vaHeWA0V8SzsfTVmkb0qQ
In the first quarter, fund redemptions were accelerated, and the hardest hit areas of redemption were quantitative and micro-cap strategy funds.
It cannot be ruled out that some people redeemed at the beginning of the decline or rebound and missed the subsequent rebound.
04
Finally, let's summarize a few lessons,
1) Respect the market and balance the allocation
Standing at the end of 2023, the situation looks like this:
The Hang Seng Index fell four times in a row, the CSI 300 Index fell three times in a row, and the Partial Equity Mixed Fund Index fell twice in a row, which has never happened before.
At that time, the Shanghai Composite Index was also below 3,000 points, and everyone was a little optimistic about the approaching dawn, or more or less expected for 2024.
Unexpectedly, the beginning of 2024 will be a critical hit, and the Shanghai Composite Index will fall to a minimum of 2,635 points, which is lower than the lowest point during the epidemic in 2020.
The small probability event really happened, breaking through the psychological defense line of countless people, especially those who chased high-tech strategies and quantitative funds at the end of 2023.
What to do?
This kind of small probability event cannot be avoided, what can be done is to be with the large army, balanced allocation, and do not deviate too much from the broad-based index. At least when the storm comes, there are many people who huddle together to keep warm, and they can support each other to go on and persist until the arrival of dawn~
2) Don't chase hot spots
There is a saying, "The market is always born in despair, grows in half-belief, matures in longing, and destroys in hope."
When a market becomes a hot spot, there is a high probability that it has also reached the stage of "longing", such as AI, such as microdisk strategy, and finally "destroyed" in a hot spot, and the speed of destruction is much faster than the speed of accumulation.
As an ordinary small scatter, how can we have any information advantages, for the hot market, in line with the attitude of "shoot and leave, small positions to play", there is nothing to blame, but I feel that I have found a big opportunity, the advantage is in me, and I want to make a lot of money with this, that can only say "seriously, you will lose"...
3) Be sure to pay attention to valuation
Maybe there are all kinds of problems with valuation, such as invalidation, such as value traps, such as rearview mirrors, history does not represent the future...
But at the very least, it solves a problem: tell us, how high is the water level compared to history?
Historically, market trends and valuations have basically moved in the same direction, while valuations have basically fluctuated back and forth within a range, occasionally breaking through the upper or lower edges of the range.
Starting from the premise that "vague correctness is far more important than precise error", "valuation" and "valuation percentile" are the indicators that are easiest for us to obtain and the most able to judge the high and low of the market, or even none.
4) Do not cut the meat at the bottom
This has to do with mentality.
How to cultivate the mentality? Refer to the first three points.
Don't chase hot spots, pay attention to valuation, there is a high probability that you will not buy in a very high position, and the rest is to overcome the boredom and boredom in the waiting process, as well as the torture of riding a roller coaster back and forth, after all, the market will not rise because it falls a lot, nor will it rise because of low valuation.
How to overcome it? For ordinary people, there may be only one way to "balance allocation".
Most of the time, the market is structural. Balanced configuration, there is a high probability that there will be a surprise of "the east is not bright and the west is bright".
If the deviation from the index is not high, there is a high probability that there will be a calmness to walk on the "right path", the mentality will be much better, and it will be easier to persevere.
Of course, there is a downside to this – you may only get the average market return.
But as this friend commented, "Some people just like to turn around when others are underestimated, which is a common problem for most people."
After all these years, are you really sure that you have the ability to create sustained and stable excess returns?
If not, then you might as well settle for the second, weak mentality, defensive operation.
In line with the mentality of "earning the average return of the market", balanced allocation, only make a move when you grasp the larger, and then firmly take it down, waiting for the income to be cashed, it may be easier to turn what you see into gains, and put the real income of the public fund into your own pocket...
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice