Deposits fell by nearly 4 trillion in April, and deposits are really not fragrant?

Time Finance

2024-05-13 16:24Published on the official account of Financial News under Beijing Beijing Time

On May 11, the financial data released by the central bank for April showed that RMB deposits increased by 7.32 trillion yuan in the first four months. Among them, household deposits increased by 6.71 trillion yuan, deposits of non-financial enterprises decreased by 1.65 trillion yuan, financial deposits decreased by 187.4 billion yuan, and deposits of non-banking financial institutions increased by 1.23 trillion yuan.

It is worth noting that from the perspective of a single month, RMB deposits decreased by 3.92 trillion yuan in April, of which resident deposits decreased by 650 billion yuan year-on-year, and corporate deposits decreased by 1.73 trillion yuan year-on-year.

In the view of many industry insiders interviewed, the decline in the scale of new bank deposits is not unexpected. Since last year, the financial regulatory authorities have been guiding banks to standardize deposit products, reduce the scale of high-interest deposits, and reduce deposit interest rates several times to reduce the cost of bank liabilities, thereby reducing the pressure on bank interest margins, which will help keep the real financing costs of the real economy at a low level.

Recently, more and more banks have suspended long-term large-value certificates of deposit products and removed smart notice deposits, and some banks have further controlled the quota of long-term ordinary time deposit products. Many small and medium-sized banks continue to cut deposit rates.

At the same time, the financial regulators are also guiding banks to "squeeze out" the "water" of irregular high-interest deposits.

Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst of Huachuang Securities, said that recently, many departments have increased the standardization of the phenomenon of "low loan and high deposit" idling arbitrage of funds, and manual interest replenishment by banks.

"However, the demand of financial institutions for an effective real economy is still fully satisfied, and the financial aggregate supports the economy more effectively and efficiently." Zhang Yu said that this is not only a manifestation of high-quality financial development, but also can promote the main business entity to base itself on the main business and avoid the precipitation of funds and idling.

So, is the deposit really not fragrant? Some investors told reporters that the interest rate on bank deposits has been falling again and again, and there are fewer and fewer large-amount certificate of deposit products with higher interest rates in the past. This also made her have to "switch" to bank wealth management and other products to continue financial management.

In fact, while deposits decreased year-on-year, the bank wealth management market ushered in a heating up in April. According to the estimation of a number of industry insiders, the scale of wealth management products in the whole market increased by about 2 trillion yuan month-on-month in April, ushering in a long-awaited rebound, and it is expected to cross the 30 trillion yuan mark within the year.

Many industry insiders believe that this is similar to the reverse process of the bond market adjustment at the end of 2022. At that time, it was deposits that "flowed back" to banks, and now bank deposits are "diverted" to the financial markets. Since the beginning of the year, the bond market has been bullish to boost the yield of asset management products such as wealth management, and bank deposits have been diverted to wealth management.

However, with the recent fluctuations in the bond market, many wealth management companies have lowered their performance comparison standards, and many investors have used this part of the funds to "prepay loans" to reduce the cost of leverage. Linglong (pseudonym), who lives in Gongshu District, Hangzhou, told reporters that the deposit interest rate has fallen again and again, and the net value of wealth management has fluctuated greatly recently, and he plans to repay the 300,000 yuan mortgage first to reduce the pressure of repaying principal and interest every month.

Although deposits are flowing to wealth management and prepayment, the trend of regularization of deposits has not weakened. The central bank's first-quarter monetary policy implementation report pointed out that the trend of regularization of deposits of enterprises and residents has intensified. The proportion of time and demand deposits has risen from "June Fourth" in 2017 to "July Three" at present. Household time and other deposits grew at a faster rate, with an increase of 7.32% in the first quarter of 2024 from the end of the previous year, much higher than the 0.58% growth rate of time and other deposits of non-financial enterprises.

(Source: Beijing News, China Business News)

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