Price increase has become a hot word recently, high-speed rail price increase, water price increase, etc., who will be the next price increase? What is the logic of the price increase?
In the face of high inflation in Europe and the United States, continuous interest rate hikes, and we not only have no inflation, but face the risk of deflation, CPI showed negative growth most of the time last year, which is obviously not conducive to economic recovery, so the policy to promote consumption, stable growth as the main goal of this year, and determined the growth target of 3% CPI this year, but in fact, the CPI in March was only 0.1%, and the CPI just announced in April has improved, but it is only 0.3%, which is far from the annual growth target of 3%. It is certain that the policy will continue to exert force in the future to achieve the goal of CPI growth.
If we want to pull up the CPI and achieve moderate inflation, it is natural to raise the price index, that is, to increase the price. But the problem is that if you directly raise the price of consumer goods, it will inevitably reduce the demand for consumption, you can increase the price, but I can not buy it, the policy has indeed made great efforts to subsidize and increase consumption vouchers, but the actual effect is not ideal, and it has not been able to pull up consumption. Therefore, the policy began to change its thinking, and turned to raise the price of goods in the public sector, such as water, electricity, gas, heating, buses, subways, etc., because these are "essential consumer goods", and if the price rises, you have to use it, and you have to consume it. The big deal forces you to save some. Of course, there are some arguments that it is more about reducing subsidies than about price increases. Because they believe that the low price of services in the public sector is entirely due to the government's constant subsidy. I don't agree with it, taking listed companies as an example, companies engaged in water, electricity, coal, and subway operations, do they all rely on state subsidies to achieve their profits, and if there are no state subsidies, they will lose money? Won't their current price increase bring about an increase in profits, is the profit of two barrels of oil so much realized by subsidies, and the performance of coal and power companies is stable, and is the high dividend achieved by subsidies?
In fact, the so-called subsidies are only targeted, and not all users are subsidized. I believe that a price increase is a price increase, and the profits brought by the price increase will partly increase corporate income and partly increase government taxes.
The increased government revenues will be shifted to areas that can drive the economy upward, increasing public sector investors and creating more jobs. There is also why this year's large-scale enterprise equipment renewal is carried out. Therefore, the price increase is just a means of policy to stimulate the economy.
After we understand the reasons for the price increase, we can predict who will increase the price next. In fact, it is very simple, that is, there is an area that the people cannot bypass without affecting the people's livelihood, that is, you have to consume if it rises.
The first is the "housing" in the field of urban public services, that is, water, electricity, coal, heating, sewage treatment, etc., of course, the price of water, electricity and coal has begun to rise. Of course, I don't think that the reason for their price increase is that some people think that the price is cheap, and it has been the government's responsibility for so many years. The subsidy is only targeted, and not all people are subsidized. Some people say that the price of coal has risen so much, but the price of electricity has not risen, in fact, the state is subsiding. In fact, it is true that the price of coal is rising now, but for coal for power generation, which is also regulated by the state, there will be no big price increase.
The second is also the "line" in the field of public services, such as buses, subways, high-speed rail, airplanes, and high-speed tolls. Now the price of high-speed rail has risen directly, of course, some people say, I don't take high-speed rail, take ordinary cars, in fact, have you found that the number of ordinary cars is getting smaller and smaller, which I deeply understand, before, there were many ordinary trains from Shanghai to Xi'an, but now the number has decreased by several times. Slowly, you can only take the high-speed train, and maybe the price of ordinary trains will increase in the future. The price increase of high-speed rail is just the first chess piece in the big game.
China's rapid economic growth depends on the large infrastructure has cooled down greatly, relying on infrastructure to drive the economy model is unsustainable, only consumption is the key to stable growth. In the past, a large number of infrastructure facilities entered the maintenance and repair period, and excessive construction brought a lot of maintenance costs. Can you do it if you don't raise the price?
In the context of global carbon neutrality and carbon peaking, carbon taxes may increase the production costs of enterprises, especially the basic cost of traditional energy, resulting in a chain reaction, water, electricity, and coal prices. Companies will pass on some of the cost to consumers by raising the price of their products. Of course, the carbon tax can prompt enterprises to increase the research and development and application of energy-saving and emission reduction technologies, and promote innovation and technological progress. A carbon tax can encourage businesses and individuals to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels and switch to cleaner energy sources, promoting the adjustment and transformation of the energy structure.
The current high-speed rail price increase, water, electricity price increase, this is just the prelude to the price increase, in the final analysis, the property market is sluggish, land finance is unsustainable, so through the public service field of price increase to reduce the pressure of fiscal expenditure, price increase will become a part of the future life, perhaps the original intention of the policy is good, the price of benign rise, but also an effective means to stimulate economic growth. However, if rising prices cannot effectively stimulate the economy, and the people's wages do not rise, the cost of living will eventually increase, and it is foreseeable that the era of inflation will come in the near future.