Recently, international oil prices have plummeted, falling by more than 5%, hitting a new low in nearly a month. In this context, the price of domestic refined oil is expected to "fall twice", after the May Day holiday, car owners are expected to save money. This will bring tangible benefits to alleviate the pressure on people's cost of living.
International oil prices plummeted
According to the latest data from authoritative energy agencies, international oil prices have fallen sharply in the past week, falling by more than 5%, hitting a new low in nearly a month. The main reason for the collapse in oil prices is the unexpected surge in U.S. crude oil inventories and the slowdown in global economic growth, which makes the pattern of oversupply of crude oil still difficult to change.
Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that U.S. crude inventories rose by 6.6 million barrels last week, far exceeding divisional expectations of an increase of 576,000 barrels, the largest weekly increase since December 2021. The sharp increase in crude oil inventories has exacerbated market concerns about the oversupply of crude oil, thus weighing on the decline of international oil prices.
In addition to the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, the market's pessimistic expectations for the global economic growth outlook were also important factors contributing to the decline in oil prices. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast for 2023 to 2.8% earlier this month, down from its previous forecast of 3.4%. Slowing economic growth means that demand for crude oil will weaken, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.
Under the pattern of oversupply, the downward trend of international oil prices has become a general trend, which has created favorable conditions for the reduction of domestic oil prices.
Domestic oil prices may "fall twice"
Under the influence of the collapse of international oil prices, domestic refined oil prices are expected to fall twice in the next price adjustment window at 24 o'clock on May 15. According to the forecast of authoritative measurement agencies, the price of No. 92 gasoline will return to below 6 yuan/liter, and the price of gasoline and diesel will be reduced by about 200 yuan/ton.
This is already the second time that domestic refined oil prices have been lowered in just half a month. On April 29, affected by the decline in international oil prices, domestic gasoline prices have been lowered by 225 yuan/ton, and diesel prices have been reduced by 215 yuan/ton. If oil prices are lowered again on May 15, a pattern of "two consecutive declines" will be formed.
For ordinary consumers, the "two consecutive declines" in oil prices will bring tangible benefits. Taking private cars as an example, if the oil price is reduced by 200 yuan/ton, then filling up a 50-liter gas tank will save about 7-8 yuan. Although the amount is not large, for some families, the savings are also a significant expense.
In the context of the downward trend of international oil prices, the "two consecutive drops" in domestic oil prices have become a high probability event, and the public has expectations for further oil price reductions to ease the cost pressure of daily life.
Consumers benefit
For ordinary consumers, the reduction in oil prices is undoubtedly good news. Especially in the current context of high inflation and rising cost of living, the reduction in oil prices will bring some tangible benefits to the people.
Taking private cars as an example, if the oil price is lowered by 200 yuan/ton as expected, then the owner will save about 7-8 yuan by filling up a 50-liter gas tank. Although the amount is not large, for some families, the savings are also a significant expense.
The reduction in oil prices will also have some indirect effects. For example, for some transportation industries, the reduction of transportation costs will help reduce the price of goods, thereby reducing the burden on consumers. The reduction in oil prices will also promote consumer travel and consumption, and will also play a certain role in driving economic growth.
The extent to which the oil price reduction will benefit will depend on the magnitude of the reduction. However, from the current point of view, on April 29, the domestic price of refined oil has just been lowered, if it is lowered again on May 15, it will form a pattern of "two consecutive declines", and the public has certain expectations for further reduction in oil prices to ease the cost pressure of daily life.
In the context of the collapse of international oil prices, domestic refined oil prices are expected to fall "twice in a row" on May 15. For ordinary consumers, the reduction in oil prices will bring tangible benefits, such as a private car can save 7-8 yuan by filling up a tank of fuel. Although the amount is not large, for some families, the savings are also a significant expense.
The reduction of oil prices will also bring some indirect effects, such as lowering commodity prices and promoting consumption, which will also have a certain role in stimulating economic growth. Against the backdrop of high inflation and rising cost of living, people are looking forward to further reductions in oil prices to ease the cost pressures of daily life.
The extent to which the oil price reduction will benefit will depend on the magnitude of the reduction. However, from the current point of view, the "two consecutive drops" in domestic oil prices have become a high probability event, and the public has certain expectations for this, in order to obtain some tangible benefits from reducing the burden.