Just after April, Cialis released the production and sales express report for April 2024, and Bitauto.com released the risk volume of M9, M7, M5 and other models, and some people urged me to update, hoping that I would estimate the performance of Cialis in February 2024 - in order not to disappoint everyone's fun, it just happened that it was okay in the past two days, so I took some time to calculate it.
1. Sales volume of Cialis in the second quarter of 2024
According to the monthly production and sales report, the total sales volume of the Wenjie brand in April was 24,878 units, the total sales volume of the Landian brand in April was 2,990 units, and the total sales volume of the Fengxing brand in April was 5,996 units. According to the "Easy Car List", the sales volume of the M9 was 15,139 units, the sales volume of the M7 was 9,266 units, and the sales volume of the M5 (old model) was 668 units, totaling 25,073 units, which was only 195 units different from the 24,878 units of the Production and Sales Express.
Combined with supplier data and the production schedules of factories 1, 2 and 3, the sales volume of the M9 in the next two months (May and June) is expected to be about 18,000 and 21,000 respectively, the sales of the M7 in the next two months (May and June) are expected to be about 12,000 and 12,000 respectively, and the sales of the M5 in the next two months (May and June) are expected to be about 6,500 and 12,000 respectively.
As for the sales volume of the Blue Electric and Fengxing brands in the next two months (May and June), it is assumed to be the same as in April, which is about 3,000 units/month and 6,000 units/month, respectively.
To sum up, in the second quarter of 2024, the sales volume of Cialis M9 will be 54,139 units, the sales volume of Wenjie M7 will be 33,266 units, the sales volume of Wenjie M5 will be 19,168 units, the sales volume of Landian will be 8,990 units, and the sales volume of Fengxing will be 17,996 units.
2. Revenue for the second quarter of 2024
The price of a bicycle is about 550,000 yuan, that of the M7 is about 290,000 yuan, and that of the M5 is about 265,000 yuan. The average selling price of Landian's bicycles is about 106,000 yuan/unit, and the average selling price of Fengxing's bicycles is about 76,000 yuan/unit.
It can be found that the M9 contributed about 30 billion yuan in sales, accounting for about 2/3. Last year, I thought that the M7 was a hit, but this year I didn't expect the M9 to be a hit.
According to the experience of estimating operating income in the first quarter of 2024, sales multiplied by 0.9 are approximately equal to operating income, that is, in the second quarter of 2024, the quarterly operating income of Cialis will be 42.142 billion yuan, which is probably between 40 billion yuan and 44 billion yuan if the range is calculated according to ±5%.
It's basically the same as my estimate at the beginning of April.
3. Summary
We know that the revenue of Cialis in the first quarter of 2024 is 26.56 billion yuan, and if Cialis achieves a revenue of about 42 billion yuan in the second quarter of 2024, then the quarter-on-quarter growth rate in the second quarter is 58%, and the year-on-year growth rate is too exaggerated.
In the future, I will calculate the gross profit margin and various expense ratios to show you how explosive the performance of Cialis in the second quarter!
(Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice, and the views in this article only represent personal views and do not have any guiding effect.) ）