The recent A-shares, I feel that it is just one word, volume, and the involution is extreme.
Moreover, it has been almost a year since I had this feeling, not for a day or two.
Starting from June 2023, the market will begin to enter a stage of involution.
The so-called involution refers to the fact that there is no incremental capital, only stock funds in the game.
Aside from January this year, part of the national team's funds are incremental, and we have not seen any large-scale funds entered.
This batch of national team funds has also taken over the snowball, private equity, quantification, and financing leverage.
That is to say, this batch of funds is aimed at buying the bottom, and it cannot be counted as an increment at all, but it just replaces some bloody chips.
A-shares, which do not have a clear incremental entry, have always been engaged in a brutal stock game.
Why is the stock game so cruel?
1. Funds are being consumed, and the market is withdrawing.
The market seems to be a stock, but in fact it is consuming money.
Just imagine, there are so many securities-related industries in the whole market, how many relevant personnel are supported by this industry, and how much cost is required.
These costs come from the big ATM of the stock market.
No one "saves" money into it, only continuous consumption and withdrawals every year, and the market will definitely not be able to stand it.
Transactions require a commission, a commission is required, stamp duty is required, and this is a withdrawal.
Major shareholders need to reduce their holdings, and executives need to cash out, which is also a withdrawal.
The big money entered the autumn wind and swept away the leaves, taking away the money in other people's pockets, or a withdrawal.
All kinds of stock charges are still withdrawals.
Whether it is a brokerage or a fund, they are all asking about market withdrawals.
There is so much money in this market, and after these withdrawals every year, it shrinks properly.
Most of this money, except for some investment institutions, "donated" a part, most of which came from the pockets of retail investors.
Stock game is a game that empties pockets.
It's just that some people who are quick to move have taken out the money in other people's pockets, but these people will always account for a minority.
Find out whether you are using the market as an ATM or if the market is using you as an ATM.
2. Big fish eat small fish, and small fish eat dried shrimp.
In the stock market, large funds have a huge advantage over small funds.
Big money determines the trend and direction, and small money can only share a bite of soup if it follows.
In the incremental market, big money and small money are a win-win relationship, with big money taking the lead and small money following closely behind.
As for the receivers, they were all handed over to the incremental funds.
But in the stock market, big money and small money are a game relationship, big money takes the lead in the charge, and then kills back and swallows small money directly.
That is to say, small funds are responsible for taking over, and large funds are responsible for eliminating small funds that follow the trend.
This has become a game between retail investors and institutions, and it is almost impossible to have a chance.
The gist of this game is that the intention of a large bank can change as a small amount of money changes.
To put it bluntly, it is to look at the dishes on the plate, and if you don't follow the trend, it will keep rising, and if you have a follow-up plate, you will immediately eat the follow-up plate.
The longer the stock game lasts, the more disadvantageous it will be for ordinary retail investors.
You will find another phenomenon, that is, in the direction of fewer retail investors, the market has been rising, and in the direction of more retail investors, the market has been falling.
This can be said to be the inevitable outcome of the stock game.
3. The east rises and the west falls, the east is patchworked, and the east is demolished to make up for the west.
Another feature of the stock game market is that funds will quickly drift between major sectors.
Poor sustainability is the feeling of the stock game.
The reason is simple, because there are so many funds.
The east is lit up, but the west is not.
Demolishing the east and making up for the west is the key in the stock game, but the demolition method may be different.
The rotation of dismantling the east and making up for the west as understood by retail investors should be repeatedly switched between high and low, and if one direction is speculated, it will be switched to the direction of low speculation.
But the reality is that some sectors will have some continuity, and most of them are running away.
That is, to specialize in several main lines and cover the market of various auxiliary lines.
The market of the main line will siphon out funds back and forth, and the market of the auxiliary line, every time it rushes up, it is a good opportunity to run away.
Only when the main line market ends, will the funds flow back into the auxiliary line, or make some intermittent impulse rebounds during the adjustment period.
The whole market will be relatively deformed, and it is better to say that it is called a structured market, which is actually a market that is looking for local places to irrigate.
4. There are many first-mover advantages, and you will be slaughtered after you know it.
The process of stock game is to pay attention to the first move.
The so-called first move refers to the part of the capital that enters the market first and speculates on the market.
This part of the funds quickly enters the market to find hot spots, and then drives the direction of the market and pulls the market of the entire index.
Most of the small funds in the market, including retail investors, are not very sensitive to the market.
When they enter the market, it is at least the next day, which is T+1 day, and the time to be able to sell for profit is already T+2 days.
This has led to a lot of short-term hot spots, and the second day has already taken over, and there may be no other pick-up on the third day.
Under the play of the stock, the small hotspot will lose what it chases, because it is half a beat slow.
Big hot spots, which tend to last for 1-2 weeks or even months, will be slightly better, at least not easy to eat quickly.
In the stock market, the emphasis is on the first-mover advantage, if you want to chase hot spots, it is best to start in the intraday, rather than waiting for fermentation.
The play of stock is to pick wool from each other, and the risk of the first hand is very small, and the risk of the second hand is very large.
The involution of the market, from a certain point of view, is an inevitability.
The reason why incremental funds are reluctant to enter the market is because of the unreasonableness of some systems, various short-selling mechanisms, the reduction of major shareholders, the imperfection of dividends, and so on.
These systems are actively changing.
But the essential reason is the money-making effect and the valuation of the entry.
Nowadays, we say that most of the money is idling in the bank, but the money in the bank, to enter the stock market, the first consideration is security, only a reasonable valuation, to give this part of the funds enough security, they may enter the market.
Therefore, the situation of stock game may continue for a while.
At least we must know that above 3,000 points, the probability of attracting incremental funds into the market is actually not high.
但增量肯定会来的。
The core of the nine articles of the country is actually to open up the entry of incremental funds, including the entry of bank wealth management funds into the market.
It's just that these funds will definitely enter the market cautiously and quietly, at least on the surface, they will not make waves in the market.
Wait patiently, when the bear market passes, the money will come with the bull market.