A new round of large-scale offensive by the Russian army seems to have begun, and the reason why we say "seemingly" is because we have not seen much movement by the Russian army, and can only be described as a tentative offensive or even a reconnaissance operation.
Several media outlets, including Reuters and AFP, reported that at around 5 a.m. local time on May 10, Russian troops crossed the border and launched another offensive towards Kharkiv, with about four to five battalions dispatched by the Russian army and received artillery and aviation support, but did not seem to be carrying many armored vehicles: "Open Source Intelligence" (OSINT) believes that the Russian army's armored vehicles were eliminated before crossing the border through geolocation, and we cannot confirm this statement.
However, even so, the Russian army claims to have captured four small settlements: Strelechye, Krasno, Pirnaya and Borisovka. In addition, Volchansk, about 5 km from the border, was heavily shelled by the Russian army, and the local government began to organize the evacuation of civilians.
For its part, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine declared that "all attacks were repulsed and no territory was lost", however, Kharkiv Governor Oleg Senehubov admitted that fighting in the border area is still going on, and the entire border area has become a "gray zone", "the enemy can enter a certain area with equipment, and then a battle takes place, and the enemy is destroyed", and reserve forces have been sent to the frontline area to strengthen the defense.
Yuri Butusov, editor-in-chief of the website "Censorship.com", questioned why the Russian army was able to easily cross the border and manage to create a bridgehead area 10 kilometers wide and 5 kilometers deep, everyone knew that the Russian army would attack Kharkiv again, and the Ukrainian army had enough time to prepare, "Why was the enemy able to occupy such an important territory with infantry units so quickly?" ”
Yuri Butusov declared that the bridgehead area built by the Russian army is about 40 kilometers from the city of Kharkiv, and that "if they are not stopped and do not suffer significant losses, they will begin to occupy other areas along the border, first move the front line away from the Russian border, and then use the new front as a possible springboard for a more powerful offensive." ”
The current news is rather confusing, whether the Russian army has occupied the so-called "bridgehead area" in Kharkov, or has been repulsed, we cannot tell for the time being. However, it is certain that Kharkiv is being attacked by Russian troops, and at a joint press conference with visiting Slovak President Zuzana Chaputova, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed the news, saying that "we met and repelled them with artillery fire." ”
It seems that the Ukrainian government is not surprised that Russia will attack Kharkiv again, after all, analysts from all walks of life have been discussing another Russian offensive on Kharkiv for a long time, and the Ukrainian army has enough time to prepare. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed that he had heard a briefing from the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Colonel-General Syrsky, "We discussed defensive operations in the Kharkiv region and the strengthening of our forces there, with special attention to Chasif Yar." ”
Analysts believe that the Russian army's offensive operation in Kharkiv is likely to be aimed at testing, but whether there is an opportunity to take advantage of the current strength of the Russian army, it is impossible to launch an offensive on multiple fronts at the same time as when the war first broke out in 2022. However, the Russian army is likely to try to establish a buffer zone 10 kilometers deep in Kharkiv to prevent the "Russian Freedom Corps" and others from continuing to attack and harass Belgorod and other areas, which is absolutely politically necessary.
In addition to Kharkov, Sumy is likely to be attacked by the Russian army, the General Staff of the Ukrainian army announced that the Russian army is massing forces near Sumy and has carried out cross-border reconnaissance operations, the total strength of the Russian army in the northern border region of Ukraine exceeds 50,000, deployed in Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod, equipped with 400 tanks, 930 armored vehicles, 990 artillery pieces and more than 120 rocket artillery.
It is very likely that the Russian army will launch a diversion offensive in Kharkiv or Sumy, with the aim of forcing the Ukrainian army to increase its forces and resources here, and reduce the defensive strength of other areas, especially Chasif Yar, so that the main forces of the Russian army can launch a strong offensive there, and once the Russian army occupies Chasif Yar, it will threaten the central region of Ukraine.
Chasiv Yar is in an important position, however, the commander of the Ukrainian army, Pavlyuk, in an interview with The Economist, declared that even if Chasiv Yar is lost, the Ukrainian army will not be defeated, and Chasiv Yar is just an ordinary city.