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Lujiazui Finance Breakfast Sunday, May 12, 2024

author:Wind Wind
Lujiazui Finance Breakfast Sunday, May 12, 2024

Hot Spotlight //

1. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in April, the mainland CPI rose by 0.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month and higher than market expectations, while the month-on-month increase turned from a decline to an increase, up 0.1%. PPI fell by 2.5% year-on-year, narrowing the decline; The month-on-month decline was 0.2%, weaker than market expectations, and the means of production and means of living both fell month-on-month. According to institutional analysis, the recovery performance of CPI is supported by service consumption such as tourism and energy prices, and it is expected that CPI will remain in the range of 0.3%-1% in the second and third quarters. The performance of PPI is dragged down by the base effect, and it is expected that PPI is expected to come out of negative territory by the end of the year or in the first quarter of next year.

2. According to the preliminary statistics of the central bank, the cumulative increase in the scale of social financing in China in the first four months of this year was 12.73 trillion yuan, 3.04 trillion yuan less than the same period last year. In the first four months of this year, Chinese RMB loans increased by 10.19 trillion yuan. At the end of April, M2 grew 7.2% year-on-year. At the end of April, the stock of social financing was 389.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%. Market experts generally said that the total amount of loans in the month was "not small", the credit structure continued to be optimized, the interest rate level remained low, and the RMB exchange rate remained basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.

3. Recently, the media reported that the actual controller of Zhejiang Ruifengda Asset Management Co., Ltd. "ran away", which attracted the attention of all parties. The China Securities Regulatory Commission attaches great importance to it and acts quickly to organize the China Securities Regulatory Bureau, the Asset Management Association and other relevant units to carry out verification. Judging from the current situation, Ruifengda Company is suspected of a number of violations of laws and regulations, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission has decided to file a case for investigation and strictly deal with it in accordance with the law. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has informed the public security organs and others of the situation and strengthened coordination and cooperation.

4. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced that the adjustment of the real-time turnover and daily quota balance of northbound trading will be officially implemented on May 13 (Monday). According to the previous announcement of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the disclosure of transaction information for northbound trading will be adjusted based on the principle of home of the A-share market, and after the adjustment, the buying and selling turnover and total turnover of northbound trading will no longer be announced in real time; Publish the available daily credit balance in real time when the balance falls below 30%, otherwise it will show "Available".

5. Zhonggeng Fund issued two additional announcements yesterday, which were originally managed by Qiu Dongrong for one year and Zhonggeng Value Pilot, and hired new fund managers Wu Chenggen and Liu Sheng respectively. This move once again sparked speculation in the market about Yau Dongrong's departure. According to the first financial verification, Qiu Dongrong does have the idea of leaving, but because there are still products in the closed period, he has not yet entered the formal resignation process. For the recent rumors, it is expected that the mystery will be revealed as soon as July this year, after the end of the product closure period.

Global Markets //

1. Recently, the collective depreciation of Asian currencies represented by the yen is eating up the returns of related funds. Comparing the performance of the Nikkei 225 Index and the Nikkei ETF, as of May 10, the net fund value of the Nikkei ETF collectively underperformed the index by about 2 percentage points in the past month. In the long run, the Nikkei 225 Index has risen by 14.24% since the beginning of this year, while the average net value of the Nikkei ETF has increased by only 5.42%, and the income gap has widened to nearly 9 percentage points.

Macro//

1. The National Standing Committee deliberated and approved the Action Plan for Digital Transformation of the Manufacturing Industry. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to explore typical scenarios in different industries and fields according to the diversified and personalized needs of the manufacturing industry. Accelerate the research of core technologies and the promotion and application of achievements, and do a good job in equipment networking, mutual recognition of protocols, standard formulation, platform construction, etc.

2. The Standing Committee of the People's Republic of China deliberated and passed the "Regulations on Fair Competition Review (Draft)", pointing out that it is necessary to focus on the outstanding problems reflected in the current market, refine and improve the rules for fair competition review, and strive to break regional blockades and industry monopolies, so as to create a good environment for all types of business operators to participate in market competition fairly.

3. On May 11, the central bank launched a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 2 billion yuan, and the winning interest rate was 1.8%. Wind data shows that there is no reverse repurchase expiration on the same day, so the net investment in a single day is 2 billion yuan.

4. The Exit and Entry Administration Bureau said that since May 27, it will issue "individual travel endorsements" to and from Hong Kong and Macao for eligible persons in eight cities, including Taiyuan, Hohhot, Harbin, Lhasa, Lanzhou, Xining, Yinchuan and Urumqi.

5. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade of Hungary (MOS) agreed on the List of Key Projects and Matters for the Third Round of China-Hungary Belt and Road Cooperation, and continued to deepen practical cooperation in infrastructure, investment, science and technology, agriculture, traditional Chinese medicine, finance and other fields.

6. The Ministry of Finance, together with the General Administration of Customs and the State Administration of Taxation, issued a notice to continue to implement the preferential tax policies for imported exhibits at the Canton Fair held from 2024 to 2025, and the policy content and list remain unchanged.

7. The meeting of the China-US "Enhanced Climate Action Working Group in the 20s of the 21st Century" was recently held in Washington, D.C. The two sides plan to host the second "Methane and Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Summit" during COP29. The two sides look forward to the U.S.-China High-Level Event on Local Climate Action to be held in Berkeley, California, on May 29-30.

Domestic Stock Market //

1. Greenwoods, a subsidiary of Greenwoods Asset Management, announced its 13F document, and its current portfolio market value is US$3.23 billion. In the first quarter, GREENWOODS entered 13 stocks such as Alibaba and JD.com, increased its holdings in 12 stocks such as TSMC, New Oriental and Meta, cleared many stocks such as Tesla and iQiyi, and reduced its holdings in 8 stocks such as NetEase, Pinduoduo and Microsoft.

2. The report of Zongheng Shares, a company listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, by competitors, is still fermenting. Yuandu Technology issued a further explanation, claiming to be responsible for the authenticity of all matters and assuming corresponding legal responsibilities.

3. Geely Automobile announced that the recent reports about "Geely Automobile and Foretellix announcing the establishment of a strategic partnership" are false information. Geely Auto does not have a strategic partnership with Foretellix, and Geely Auto has asked the relevant parties to remove the false information.

4. Li Auto announced that OTA5.2 will be pushed to the Ideal MEGA and Ideal L series. According to the function introduction, based on the intelligent driving solution of the first mass-produced BEV model architecture of the Horizon Journey 5 chip, AD Pro3.0 achieves zero takeover at the high-speed NOA 1,000-kilometer level, and intelligent parking supports more than 300 types of complex parking spaces.

5. Zhu Jiangming, Chairman of Leapmotor, and Tang Weishi, CEO of Stellantis Group, will jointly attend a joint press conference next week, at which the two sides will announce the establishment of the "Leapmotor International" joint venture.

6. Geely Holding Group's total sales in April were 247,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 29%. Among them, the sales of new energy vehicles were 99,200, a year-on-year increase of 52%, and the penetration rate of new energy reached 40%.

7. Loongson Zhongke announced the launch of Loongson 2K0300 series of touch all-in-one machines, which supports cloud services, has "industrial quality", passes the electromagnetic compatibility test, and supports "7×24 hours of long-term stable operation".

Finance//

1. The central bank and other four departments jointly held a symposium on the construction of a beautiful China with green financial services, emphasizing that all financial institutions should fully consider the adaptability to the green transformation of the economy and society in their overall strategies, and incorporate climate risks into the overall risk management system. Strengthen green financial products and services, broaden project repayment and guarantee methods, and explore innovative products such as environmental rights and interests mortgage loans, environmental benefit-linked loans, and green credit asset securitization.

2. The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that it approved the registration of Huaxia TBEA New Energy Closed-end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund and Huatai Zijinbaowan Logistics and Warehousing Closed-end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund.

3. Jiangxin Fund issued an announcement on the change of senior management, stating that deputy general managers Zheng Yu, Wang Anliang, Li Zhen, Wang Peng, and chief information officer Fu Ming will all leave their posts on May 10, 2024. Among them, Zheng Yu resigned due to retirement, and the other four resigned due to personal reasons.

4. It is reported that Chen Chong, deputy general manager of China Post Venture Fund, has resigned. Relevant sources said that Chen Zheng confirmed that he will leave the post of deputy general manager in the near future, and the company will make an announcement in the near future.

5. The Chongqing Securities Regulatory Bureau issued "fines" to the Chongqing Business Department of Minmetals Futures and the Chongqing Business Department of Nanhua Futures respectively. The "fine" involved the issue of "inadequate compliance risk management and deficiencies in internal control" in the Chongqing business departments of the two futures companies. The Chongqing Securities Regulatory Bureau decided to take administrative supervision measures against the business departments of the two futures companies by issuing warning letters.

6. The quota is frequently "urgent", and the subscription of more than half of the QDII fund products is limited. As of May 8, among the 617 QDII funds in the whole market (different shares are calculated separately), a total of 339 funds are in the state of suspension of subscription or suspension of large-amount subscription, accounting for 54.94% of the total number of QDII products in the market.

7. The latest total scale of 27 currency ETFs in the whole market is 184.4 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly 48 billion yuan compared with the high point of the scale in late February, a decrease of more than 20%. Interviewees and industry insiders said that the decline in the yield of the cargo base and the recovery of the A-share stock market, the increase in the risk appetite of on-site funds, may lead to the diversion of some funds to stock assets with higher money-making effect.

Housing//

1. The Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the "2024 Beijing Housing Development Annual Plan". This year, it plans to supply about 6 million square meters of commercial housing. In accordance with the "one district, one plan", carry out special actions to improve the municipal infrastructure and public service facilities around the projects for sale. Strengthen district-specific policies, district-specific policies, and precise policies, optimize real estate policies, and better meet the multi-level and diversified housing needs of "one old and one young" families, job-housing balance, etc.

2. Shenzhen Real Estate Appraisal Price Inquiry System V3.0 issued a reminder that Shenzhen Natural Resources and Real Estate Appraisal and Development Research Center updated the appraisal price of stock housing on May 11. In addition, the appraisal price of stock housing is regularly updated on September 1 of each year (excluding this year).

3. Nanjing officially promulgated the "Implementation Plan for the Planning and Construction of Affordable Housing in Nanjing", which clarifies that in addition to the centralized construction of land allocated by the government, the stock of housing can be appropriately rebuilt or purchased for affordable housing, and the idle land and houses can be revitalized.

4. The Nanjing Municipal Public Security Bureau issued the "Notice on Matters Concerning the Settlement of Legal and Stable Domiciles", stating that the conditions for settlement will be further relaxed. Non-Nanjing household registration persons who have a legal and stable residence in Nanjing and actually reside in Nanjing can directly apply for settlement.

5. From May 15, 2024 to May 14, 2025, Huadu District, Guangzhou City, will carry out the "new purchase" activity of exchanging the old for the new, and promote the "small for large", "old for new" and "low for high" commercial housing.

6. The Xianning Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said that through the implementation of real estate financing coordination measures, two batches of a total of 14 real estate projects have been included in the "white list", with a total financing demand of 1.16 billion yuan, and 186 million yuan has been released so far.

Industry//

1. The National Standing Committee will study the work related to effectively reducing the logistics cost of the whole society. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to further optimize the structure of cargo transportation, vigorously develop multimodal transport, deepen the reform of the comprehensive transportation system, railway freight, and commercial circulation, promote the development of digital intelligence and green transformation of logistics, make up for the shortcomings of bulk commodity logistics, cold chain logistics, and rural logistics, and promote the substantial reduction of logistics costs as a whole.

2. The State Administration for Market Regulation issued the Interim Provisions on Online Anti-Unfair Competition, which will come into force on September 1, 2024. The "Provisions" strengthen the responsibility of the platform. Urge platforms to strengthen the regulation and management of competitive conduct within the platform, and at the same time regulate issues such as the abuse of data algorithms to gain competitive advantages.

3. From April to November 2024, the State Administration for Market Regulation will organize and carry out a nationwide special action to supervise advertisements in the field of people's livelihood, and will maintain a high-pressure and strict crackdown on illegal acts of medical cosmetology advertising, strictly regulate the publication of medical cosmetology advertisements, and severely crack down on illegal acts such as publishing medical cosmetology advertisements without advertising review, creating appearance anxiety, and exaggerating the efficacy of medical cosmetology.

4. According to the statistics of major excavator manufacturers by China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 18,822 excavators of various types will be sold in April 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.27%, of which 10,782 will be domestic, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%; 8,040 units were exported, down 13.2% year-on-year.

5. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on in-depth energy efficiency diagnosis of key energy-using units. It is proposed that by the end of 2025, all regions will establish energy-saving management files for key energy-using units with an annual comprehensive energy consumption of 5,000 tons of standard coal and above, so as to achieve full coverage of energy-saving supervision of key energy-using units, and further improve the management level of energy conservation and carbon reduction of key energy-using units.

6. The Ministry of Natural Resources and the National Bureau of Statistics signed a strategic cooperation agreement on promoting the high-quality development of the marine economy, and the two sides will focus on the construction of the indicator system, data quality control, research on major issues, data sharing and sharing, academic exchanges and international cooperation, and talent team construction.

7. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will organize and carry out the "100 Cities and 1000 Gardens" activity for the integration of industrial Internet into the park in 2024, including policies into the park, facilities into the park, technology into the park, standards into the park, applications into the park, enterprises into the park, and services into the park.

8. Shenzhen adjusts the application conditions for the incremental index of new energy cars, cancels the social security restrictions on the application of the incremental index of new energy cars for non-registered personnel in Shenzhen, and relaxes the conditions and restrictions for individuals with only one car registered in Shenzhen to apply for the incremental index of hybrid cars. Citizens only need to hold a residence permit to apply for the new energy car increment index.

9. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in April, the production and sales of automobiles in mainland China reached 2.406 million units and 2.359 million units, respectively, a decrease of 10.5% and 12.5% month-on-month, and a year-on-year increase of 12.8% and 9.3%, respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 870,000 units and 850,000 units, respectively, an increase of 35.9% and 33.5% year-on-year, respectively, and the market share reached 36%.

10. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in April, Continental exported 504,000 vehicles, up 0.4% m/m and 34% y/y. Exports of conventional fuel vehicles totaled 390,000 units, reflecting a 3.3% m/m increase and a 41.6% y/y increase. NEV exports totaled 114,000 units, reflecting an 8.6% m/m decrease and a 13.3% y/y increase.

11. A paragraph of "Shanghai will cancel the valley peak pricing from June 1 and change to the section pricing" The content of the electricity bill increase was spread on social media platforms. The State Grid 95598 service hotline said that the Shanghai Electric Power Company has not received any relevant notices from government departments on electricity price adjustments recently, "There is no increase or change in the price of electricity for residents in Shanghai, and it is still the same as before." ”

12. Lotu Technology released the "Monthly Express Report on Brand Shipments in China's TV Market", showing that in April, the shipments of brand machines in China's TV market reached 2.47 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2% and a month-on-month increase of 1.6%. As of the end of April, the cumulative shipments of the overall market were 10.91 million units, down 3.2% year-on-year.

13. According to data released by the China Charging Alliance, there were 68,000 more public charging piles in April than in March, a year-on-year increase of 47.0% in April. As of April 2024, members of the alliance have reported a total of 2.977 million public charging piles, including 1.315 million DC charging piles and 1.661 million AC charging piles.

Overseas-

1. The U.S. health authorities recently issued a warning that a new variant of FLiRT has emerged from the new coronavirus, which is spreading rapidly throughout the United States, of which KP.2 has accounted for 25% of infection. It is worth noting that the new variant of the new coronavirus, FLiRT, is spreading rapidly in Canada, the United Kingdom, and other countries. The World Health Organization said it would continue to closely monitor the evolution of the virus.

International Stock Market //

1. Apple is close to reaching an agreement with OpenAI to use ChatGPT features in iOS 18, the next-generation iPhone operating system, as part of Apple's broader effort to introduce artificial intelligence capabilities to its devices. Apple has also negotiated with Google to license the use of the Gemini chatbot. These discussions have not yet reached an agreement, but they are still ongoing.

2. OpenAI, an artificial intelligence research company, said it will announce product updates in the form of a live broadcast next Monday, but will not release GPT-5 or search engine products. It was previously reported that OpenAI plans to release an AI-powered search engine product to compete with search engine supremacy Google and AI search startup Perplexity.

3. Apple plans to enhance Siri, the iPhone virtual assistant with artificial intelligence, which is expected to be released at Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) on June 10.

4. Japan's Vision Fund, a subsidiary of Japan's SoftBank Group, quietly sold or wrote down billions of dollars of shares in listed companies, with the total amount shrinking by nearly $29 billion. The company's founder, Masayoshi Son, is moving away from venture capital deals he once loved to strategic investments in semiconductors and artificial intelligence, according to people familiar with the matter.

5. Ford Motor Company announced that John Lawlor, Chief Financial Officer, will also serve as Vice Chairman, focusing on Ford's strategic and partnership responsibilities. Shirley House, Lucid's former chief financial officer, will join Ford as vice president of finance and succeed Lawler as chief financial officer in early 2025.

6. McDonald's plans to launch a $5 low-cost package in the United States, aiming to attract low-income groups affected by inflation, according to people familiar with the matter.

7. NTT docomo, a Japanese telecommunications operator, announced that it will establish a new company to oversee overseas business. NTT docomo will develop Web 3.0, a next-generation Internet technology, and a low-cost open RAN service that combines the machines of several equipment vendors.

8. Costco's first gas station in Chinese mainland opened in Nanjing, and the supporting membership store is expected to open on May 28. The current price of gasoline provided by Costco gas stations is significantly lower than the market price, and the gasoline per liter is 0.67 yuan ~ 1.49 yuan lower than the market price.

Commodity-

1. The World Gold Council said that as of the end of April, the total global holdings of gold ETFs decreased by 33 tons to 3,079 tons, 6% lower than the average in the past 12 months. Meanwhile, the rally in gold prices pushed global ETFs up to $229 billion in total assets under management (AUM), up 3% from the previous month and the highest since April 2022.

2. Domestic oil prices are expected to usher in "two consecutive declines". According to the monitoring data of professional institutions, on May 11, the domestic reference crude oil change rate on the 7th working day was -4.64%, and it is expected that gasoline and diesel will be reduced by 200 yuan/ton. According to the current reduction rate, domestic oil prices will be reduced by 0.15~0.17 yuan/liter. Car owners want to fill up a car with a fuel tank of 50L, which will save 7.5~8.5 yuan.

3. Hong Hao, chief economist of Sirui Group, believes that although the rise will not be smooth sailing, the current round of gold's upward trend is far from over. Liu Jia, head of Asian investment strategy at Deutsche Bank's international private banking division, said that he is still optimistic about gold's performance in the next 12 months, and if the Fed starts to cut interest rates in the second half of the year, gold's relative attractiveness will rise further.

Bond//

1. The new issue of savings treasury bonds was officially issued, and the market once again staged a "daylight" market. A number of bank branch practitioners said that basically all of them were sold out within a few hours, and investors' enthusiasm for subscription continued unabated, that is, they could only buy it immediately at the beginning of the sale. From May 10 to 19, the Ministry of Finance will issue the third and fourth phases of certificate savings treasury bonds this year, with a maximum total issuance of 30 billion yuan for the two phases of treasury bonds, with a three-year and five-year maturity, with coupon rates of 2.38% and 2.5% respectively.

2. Country Garden Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. announced that the interest repayment of the two bonds was completed within the grace period, namely: "23 Country Garden MTN001" with interest payable at 30.4 million yuan and interest at 6,829.59 yuan during the grace period, and "23 Country Garden MTN002" with interest payable at 35.55 million yuan and interest of 8,278.77 yuan during the grace period.

3. ICBC plans to issue the country's first TLAC non-capital bond on May 15, with an issuance scale of RMB 30 billion, of which the basic issuance scale of variety 1 is RMB 20 billion, and the basic issuance scale of variety 2 is RMB 10 billion.

4. The Hunan Provincial Government and the State Administration of Financial Supervision held a working meeting. Mao Weiming, governor of Hunan Province, expressed the hope that the State Administration of Financial Supervision will give more guidance and support in strengthening financial supervision, preventing and resolving local debt risks, and deepening the reform of rural credit cooperatives, so as to guide and promote more high-quality financial resources to invest in Hunan and develop Hunan.

5. [Major Bond Events] "23 Haier Jinying SCP007" has been paid on May 10, and the holders' meeting has been cancelled; Jinke Real Estate Group is facing a major lawsuit, involving an amount of about 1.54 billion yuan.

Foreign exchange//

1. The Foreign Exchange Trading System (CFETS) issued a notice that from May 20, 2024, the foreign exchange trading system of the Foreign Exchange Trading System of the Foreign Exchange Trading System will provide intra-city active-active services for interbank foreign currency money markets and other businesses. The business scope of the intra-city active-active service includes foreign currency lending, foreign currency repurchase, foreign currency interbank deposit and foreign currency interest rate swap. After the upgrade, the above-mentioned trading services can be provided in both the production data center and the intra-city data center of the foreign exchange trading center.

Lujiazui Finance Breakfast Sunday, May 12, 2024

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Lujiazui Finance Breakfast Sunday, May 12, 2024