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The United States has always been uneasy in the international community and has always provoked some incidents for no reason.
In particular, against the backdrop of China's rapid economic development, the United States regards this development as a challenge to American hegemony. It is precisely because of this that the Trump administration began to wage an economic and trade war against China.
In recent years, the U.S. government's actions have become more and more frequent, and the intensity of its attacks on China in the economic and trade fields has also been increasing.
In addition to this, the U.S. government has been using its hegemony to prevent China from cooperating with other countries.
Like, Russia. Not long ago, before Blinken's visit to China, he publicly stated that if China was still cooperating with Russia, it would be tantamount to being an enemy of the United States and Western countries.
China must choose between Russia and Western countries, and if it does not do what the United States demands, continue to impose sanctions on China, and even kick the yuan out of the international payment system.
In recent years, with the continuous development of the mainland's economy and trade, its position in international trade has been rising, and its influence has been further strengthened, and trade exchanges with other countries have become more and more frequent.
Especially in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States and Western countries have increased sanctions against Russia in all aspects. Against this background, there is more and more trade cooperation between China and Russia.
In the face of normal trade between China and Russia, the United States has continued to pour dirty water, and even accused China of providing Russia with corresponding military weapons, instrument chips and other products, and used this as an excuse to prepare to exclude the RMB from the SWIFT system.
In fact, last year, the United States did just that, not only kicking Russia out of the system, but also imposing all-round sanctions on Russia.
So, what would be the consequences if the U.S. government did take a tough stance to exclude the renminbi from the SWIFT system?
As a global association of interbank financial telecommunication, SWIFT has a very important position in the economic and trade exchanges of various countries, which can make it more convenient for banks in various countries to transmit information and transaction activities in international trade.
Today, it is the world's largest financial information transmission platform, involving more than 12,000 banks and financial institutions.
After years of development, this international payment system has become a very large system. Many countries must rely on this system to complete transactions when conducting import or export trade.
The mainland is no exception. It is understood that at present, the mainland needs to rely on this system for up to 60 or even 70 percent of the transaction volume in import and export trade.
SWIFT plays a very important role in supporting the trade of countries around the world, and in this settlement system, most countries use US dollars for trade settlement.
Due to the relatively low proportion of mainland currency in international payments, many goods must be converted into US dollars in the process of trading to complete the transaction demand.
Therefore, in the import and export trade of the mainland, it is often necessary to rely on this system.
Because of this, some analysts believe that if the renminbi is kicked out of the system, it will also cut off China's excess of economic and trade with the international community, resulting in the inability of the mainland to trade goods with many countries.
Judging from the mainland's export industry in recent years, whether it is home appliances, mobile phones, clothing and other products, the export road may be damaged as a result.
At the same time, the country's economic development and GDP growth will also suffer as a result.
In addition to the impact on the mainland, countries that trade with the mainland will also be affected, especially those countries that would otherwise rely on cheap imports from China, which will face serious problems such as rising prices and inflation.
Of course, these effects are not absolute, after all, the mainland is now actively exploring the mode of using a new settlement system for foreign trade without using the US dollar.
Not long ago, the Russian side said that in the process of various trade exchanges with China, 90% of the transaction volume is currently settled in local currency.
The settlement model between China and Russia is actually a very good reference, and the establishment of a diversified settlement model without using the US dollar settlement can better resolve these problems encountered above and avoid the impact of a currency hegemony on the global economy.
What do you think about the renminbi's "withdrawal from the group" from SWIFT? Welcome to discuss in the comment area!