CFIC Introduction
On May 10, the "2024 China Health Brand Innovation and Development Forum" was successfully held at the China Financial Information Center in Lujiazui, Shanghai. Lian Ping, Chairman of the China Chief Economist Forum and President of Guangkai Chief Industry Research Institute, delivered a keynote speech on "Macroeconomic Analysis and Consumption Trends at Home and Abroad".
On May 10, the "2024 China Health Brand Innovation and Development Forum" was successfully held at the China Financial Information Center in Lujiazui, Shanghai. Lian Ping, Chairman of the China Chief Economist Forum and President of Guangkai Chief Industry Research Institute, delivered a keynote speech on "Macroeconomic Analysis and Consumption Trends at Home and Abroad".
Lian Ping pointed out that the current international economic environment is "mixed". In 2024, the world economy is showing a series of new changes and characteristics, and there may be some positive changes that are beneficial to China's economy, but uncertainties still exist. Now that global inflation has begun to ease, global capital flows to emerging economies are likely to accelerate, and the outlook for global trade may improve as a result.
At the same time, the mainland's fiscal policy has released a positive signal of moderate force. In 2024, the mainland will further strengthen the counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies, continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy, and the overall tone is "moderate strengthening, quality and efficiency". Starting from this year, it is planned to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years, which will be used exclusively for the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas. This year, 1 trillion yuan will be issued, and 4-5 trillion yuan may be issued in the next few years, and the fiscal policy will be strategically expanded.
In terms of monetary policy, the prudent monetary policy in 2024 will be "flexible, moderate, precise and effective", continue to operate loosely, and better play the dual adjustment function of monetary policy in aggregate and structure. Lian Ping believes that there is still room for RRR cuts in the future, and the space for the mainland policy rate to be lowered in the second half of the year will also be further opened. In 2024, the PBOC will strengthen the comprehensive use of structural policy tools, including re-lending to support agriculture and small enterprises, re-discounting, collateral supplementary loans (PSL), and re-lending for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation. Monetary policy will actively support and cooperate with fiscal policy to support key areas and weak links in economic operation.
With the strong support of financial resources, infrastructure investment will play a strong role in supporting the economy and become one of the key levers for stable growth. In 2024, infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment will continue to play a role in "stabilizing growth". From the perspective of construction projects, there is still a large space for the construction of traditional infrastructure projects in the central and western regions of the mainland, and the construction of new infrastructure projects in the eastern region will achieve rapid growth.
Investment in the manufacturing industry has become an important starting point for stable growth. In recent years, the role of manufacturing investment in investment and economic growth has become more and more obvious, and it has become another important starting point for stable growth. In 2024, a series of factors will promote manufacturing investment to maintain a steady and rapid growth.
The consumer industry is gradually returning to normal. Lian Ping believes that in 2024, driven by many favorable factors, consumption will continue to maintain a stable and rapid growth trend, and will still be the first driving force for GDP growth, but the contribution rate will decline sharply and gradually return to normal. Among them, service consumption will maintain rapid growth. From the perspective of international experience, after entering the middle-income stage, service consumption will be in a rapid growth channel for a long time, and there is a large room for growth. On the other hand, the recovery of CPI and PPI will lead to an increase in consumer prices. At the policy level, we will support service consumption and introduce policies to encourage and promote the trade-in of consumer goods to stabilize and expand traditional consumption.
In terms of imports and exports, exports are gradually picking up. In 2024, the growth rate of exports may turn from a decline to an increase, and the contribution rate of net exports to economic growth will turn from negative to positive. the systematic export supply and the ability to cope with risks brought about by the advantages of the whole industry chain; The manufacturing level of the middle and high-end is constantly improving; and the diversification of export markets, these three advantages will bring effective support to mainland exports. The 2024 government work report pointed out that the quality and quantity of foreign trade will be promoted by promoting cross-border e-commerce, introducing policies such as service trade and innovative development of digital trade.
In addition, the RMB exchange rate has risen steadily. In the second half of 2024, as the Fed's interest rate cut process is established and China's economy stabilizes and improves, the RMB will maintain an appreciation trend, and the exchange rate range will further move upward. Lian Ping believes that in the context of the further opening up of China's financial market, the steady appreciation of the renminbi means that the price of renminbi assets may also form an upward trend, which will drive the investment activities of renminbi assets to become more active.
Lian Ping also pointed out that at present, the pressure on real estate risk prevention and control is greater, but the risk of local bonds has eased. The risks of small and medium-sized financial institutions are basically controllable, and the central bank will implement a prudent and loose monetary policy in 2024, and reasonable and abundant market liquidity will create favorable conditions for small and medium-sized financial institutions to resolve and mitigate their risks.
It is reported that this forum is one of the series of activities of Xinhua News Agency's 2024 China Brand Day, which is guided by the Brand Work Office of Xinhua News Agency, Shanghai Public Relations Association and Shanghai Modern Service Industry Federation, hosted by Xinhua News Agency Shanghai Branch, Xinhua News Agency China Financial Information Center, Shanghai Modern Service Industry Federation Health Special Committee, and co-hosted by Infinitus (China) Co., Ltd.
Source of this article: China Financial Information Center, Lujiazui Financial Network
Author: Zhu Yihui
Co-ordinator: Zhu Yihui
WeChat editor: Liu Sile
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