Pig aspect: recently, the pig market showed a weak and stable trend, the price of "stalemate" performance is more prominent, although, after the holiday consumption inertia falls, but, due to the strong sentiment at the breeding end, the pig price decline is difficult to cash, the market shows a narrow range of ups and downs!
However, judging from the latest feedback from the market, the support of rising pig prices has gradually become stronger, and in the short term, the market may have an opportunity to rise slightly!
On the one hand, the price of the pig near-month contract rose sharply, and yesterday, the main 2407 contract of the pig soared by 405 yuan to 16365 yuan / ton; The hog contract 2409 rose 355 yuan to 18070 yuan / ton! Supported by this factor, the bullish sentiment in the market is heating up, in particular, the confidence in the short-term pig price is stronger, the price mentality of farmers is improving, the sentiment of small and medium-sized pigs is rising, and the group pig enterprises have significantly reduced the amount of price operation, and the market has different degrees of "lack of pigs" performance;
On the other hand, under the background of the rise of the contract in recent months, superposition, and the de-production capacity of pigs, the market has become stronger again, and in the northern region, the number of inquiries has increased significantly, and the enthusiasm of the pig has been greatly improved, which further supports the performance of pig prices!
Therefore, guided by emotions, the confidence of the second fattening entry has become stronger, and the breeding end has shrunk the price, and it is expected that in the short term, the pig price may maintain a strong trend! According to the analysis of institutional data, on May 12, the price of three-yuan live pigs outside the country rose by 0.14 yuan/kg, and the price of live pigs rose to about 15 yuan/kg!
However, from a rational point of view, this month's consumption lacks increment, the standard fertilizer price spread or will be further inverted, the risk of fat pig pressure is higher, and the high temperature and humid environment in the southern region may induce an increase in pig diseases, medium and large pig subscription or will be strong, after a short period of pig prices, the market is not lacking in the risk of falling again, but, in terms of trend, pig prices basically ushered in a cyclical rise in the inflection point!
Oil price market: It is reported that in 2024, domestic oil prices will "rise more and fall less", and there will only be 2 declines, gasoline and diesel prices will fall by 0.05 yuan and 0.06 yuan / liter respectively, and the decline can not bear to look at directly, which also makes the price of No. 92 gasoline rise into the "8 yuan era" in adulthood!
In accordance with the domestic refined oil price adjustment mechanism, with a cycle of 10 working days, with reference to the international crude oil change level to adjust, this round of pricing cycle, international oil prices showed a trend of falling at a high level, although, after the holiday, by the breakdown of ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, geopolitical tensions heated up again, and international oil prices briefly rose in a row!
However, the overnight market international oil prices fell sharply, which is mainly due to the United States to control inflation less than expected, by the pressure of high inflation, although, the U.S. economy is almost "bursting", however, the Federal Reserve is still "tight-lipped about interest rate cuts", some Fed officials even threatened to "raise interest rates" again, which also exacerbated analysts' concerns about the Fed's interest rate cuts are difficult to fulfill, and the United States maintains a high level of interest rates, which is bound to further exacerbate the downward pressure on the economy, and crude oil consumption capacity may decline sharply!
According to the data, at present, WTI crude oil prices fell to 78.26 US dollars / barrel, Brent crude oil quotation fell to 82.78 US dollars / barrel, international oil prices to maintain a stage of low levels, affected by secondary factors, in the domestic market, the 7th working day of this round of pricing cycle, the rate of change of crude oil hovered at -4.55%, gasoline and diesel prices are estimated to fall by 230 yuan / ton!
If this round of oil price reduction lands, the domestic 92/95 gasoline price may be reduced by 0.17 ~ 0.21 yuan / liter, the cost of residential cars or will drop slightly, according to the volume of private cars 50 liters, fill up a tank of oil, it is estimated that it can spend 8.5 ~ 10.5 yuan less!
Taking Shandong as an example, on May 12, the price of No. 92 gasoline was implemented after the last price adjustment, and the price of "three barrels of oil" gas station was quoted at 8.15 yuan / liter, and the price of oil fell to the ground, when the price of No. 92 gasoline in Shandong may fall to 7.95 ~ 7.97 yuan / liter, and the price of No. 92 gasoline in many places in China may fall below 8 yuan / liter......
However, at present, there are still 3 working days before the oil price adjustment, and there is still a certain difference in the final decline in oil prices.
I hope that the oil price will come more violently, and it is best to drop by 300~400 yuan/ton, please like it!
Attached: No. 92 gasoline prices across the country on May 12, 2024 (the level at which the last price adjustment was implemented)
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