Emotions are coming, and it's hard not to rise......
In the pig market, in early May, pig prices showed a "first rise and then fall in a stable" situation, after the holiday, the market purchase and sales are relatively cautious, the breeding end has a strong price sentiment, large factories shrink the amount of slaughter, demand follow-up is relatively sluggish, pig prices show a trend of grinding the bottom!
However, in recent days, the pig market sentiment has gradually strengthened, the market bullish mentality has heated up significantly, and the pig price may usher in a short "small spring"!
On the one hand, the supply pattern of standard pigs ushered in a "reversal"! According to the sow herd de-stocking, in July last year, the pace of sow herd de-stocking increased significantly, corresponding to May this year, the standard pig supply pattern gradually narrowed, and the supply reversal ushered in an inflection point, which also boosted the breeding end and market expectations!
On the other hand, the mainstream hog contract rose first! It is understood that on May 10, the mainstream contract quotation of live pigs rose sharply, in particular, the contract rose significantly in recent months, the live pig 2407 contract soared by 405 yuan, rising to 16365 yuan / ton, and the price of the live pig 2409 contract rose to 18070 yuan / ton! Driven by this factor, the bullish confidence of the breeding end has been further enhanced!
By the market sentiment warmed up, the enthusiasm of the second breeding has also increased significantly, the last two days, the north and south regions, the breeding end of the small and medium-sized pig transaction positive, the market is not lacking in a certain "pig grab" phenomenon, the stage of the pig pig, the slaughter node in 7~8 months, due to the recent month of the pig 2407 contract price rise, the current stage of the pig price performance substitution, the market just need to fill the pig enthusiasm boost!
Therefore, by the multi-party good concentrated cash, it is expected that on May 12, the price of three-yuan pigs outside the country may rise to 15 yuan / kg, compared with the previous day up about 0.14 yuan / kg, the north and south of the country, pig prices are comprehensively strengthened, and the market has the enthusiasm of the bottom of the pig!
However, the rise in pig prices is still under some pressure!
On the one hand, the pressure of consumption constraints is highlighted, with the arrival of summer, in a high temperature and humid environment, the enthusiasm of residents for pork consumption has deteriorated, the demand for fat pork has decreased, and the risk of fat pigs pressing the fence may increase, superimposed, the price of alternative commodities poultry, eggs and beef and mutton has fallen sharply, and in some areas, the price of fresh beef has fallen below about 20 yuan / catty, and there is a substitution sentiment in consumption, which will also inhibit the space for pig prices to rise!
On the other hand, the north and south regions are about to usher in the rainy season, and the risk of pig farm disease will also increase significantly.
Therefore, based on many factors in the market, by the short-term sentiment in place, the enthusiasm of the second breeding to enter the promotion, pig prices or will show a slight upward trend, however, by the constraints of consumption, the inversion of the standard fertilizer and the risk of latent disease in the pig farm, the rise is still facing certain pressure, the market will pay specific attention to the progress of the second breeding and the impact of the weather on the pig farm disease!
On May 12, the list of live pig prices in the north and south of the country: