Urea market: Recently, the urea market has ushered in a price increase model, the news is gradually increasing, and the purchase and sales game is further intensified! On the supply side, due to the increase in the shutdown and maintenance of enterprises, the pressure on urea inventory has been reduced, and enterprises have a certain sentiment of reluctance to sell at a high price, and the demand follow-up is relatively positive, especially due to the tight supply concerns of the local area, traders and industrial demand to follow up positively, and the urea spot maintains a strong operation trend!
At present, agricultural fertilizer has also entered the traditional peak season, in order to stabilize the supply of agricultural fertilizers and ensure the general policy of food security, the news of policy regulation and control is frequent, which also inhibits the sentiment of the market to chase up, and there is a certain stalemate in the purchase and sale of goods!
According to the analysis of institutional data, at present, the quotation of domestic mainstream urea enterprises is stable, and the quotation of some enterprises has risen by about 10~20 yuan/ton, of which the quotation of small and medium-sized granular urea in Shandong is 2260~2300 yuan/ton; The price of small granular urea in Henan market is 2190~2270 yuan/ton, and the price of mainstream small granules in Hebei is 2270 yuan/ton; The price of small particles in Shanxi is 2180~2220 yuan/ton; The price in Liaoning is 2230 yuan/ton; The price of Inner Mongolia is 2050~2140 yuan/ton;
Personally, I believe that in the near future, due to the reduction of inventory pressure on enterprises, the positive follow-up of demand, the surge in demand for agricultural fertilizer and compound fertilizer enterprises, and the continuous rise in spot urea quotations, which has also caused the pressure of policy regulation, in particular, the sluggish performance of grain prices and the increase in the cost of urea, which may inhibit the enthusiasm of grain farmers, the market is worried about the prospect of urea, the purchase and sale of a certain stalemate, the phenomenon of corporate acquiring is reduced, and the price of urea is facing a certain pullback! However, due to the increase in factory shutdowns and maintenance, the supply pressure has tightened, which may support the mentality of enterprises to raise prices, and there is not much room for urea price reduction!
Cattle and sheep market: At present, the price of domestic fattening cattle and sheep is low and sluggish, from the market feedback, in terms of fattening cattle, the price of Inner Mongolia Chifeng is 12.3 yuan / catty; Hebei Zhangjiakou local bull price at 12.2 ~ 13.5 yuan / catty, part of the high-quality price at 13 ~ 14 yuan; In Tianjin, the price of fattening cattle is 13.3~14.2 yuan; The mainstream fattening cattle price in Changchun, Jilin Province is 12.5 yuan ~ 13.5 yuan; Liaoning Tieling price is 12.2~13.4 yuan; Heilongjiang bull price at 12~14 yuan / catty; The mainstream price in Henan is 13.3~15.3 yuan, and the price in Shandong is 12.4~13.6 yuan/jin......
In terms of fattening sheep, in Inner Mongolia, the price of about 80 kg of goat mother is 11~11.5 yuan, the price of big-tailed sheep is 12 yuan, and the price of small-tailed sheep is 13 yuan; In Jilin area, the price of about 30 catties of male lambs is 550~570 yuan; The price of about 30 catties of lambs in Fuxin, Liaoning is 670 yuan; Shanxi high-legged cold sheep is quoted at about 12 yuan/catty; Hebei sheep price is 11.5 yuan, goat price is 14 yuan, Henan goat price is 13 yuan, ewe price is 10 yuan/catty......
At present, the price of domestic fattening cattle and sheep continues to fall, and the pressure of breeding losses has increased sharply, compared with the end of last year, it has generally decreased by about 2~3 yuan!
On the one hand, domestic beef and mutton overcapacity, in the first quarter, the domestic beef output was 1.86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, and the mutton production capacity was 1.11 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%! In terms of imports, in the first quarter, mutton imports were 108,500 tons, beef imports were 771,300 tons, and in terms of import costs, the average price of beef imports in 23 years was 18.63 yuan/jin, and the average price of mutton imports was 14.7 yuan/jin, and the cost of mutton imports fell to about 12~13 yuan/jin in some months this year......
On the other hand, the consumption support is insufficient, the increase in domestic beef and mutton consumption has declined for 7 consecutive years, while the cost of imported beef and mutton has dropped sharply, and some costs have decreased by more than 3% year-on-year. In particular, after the year, the domestic consumer demand has deteriorated, the income of residents has declined, the demand for improved beef and mutton has deteriorated, and alternative consumption such as poultry meat and eggs is more common!
Therefore, under many factors, in the short term, the beef and mutton market will still maintain a weak trend, and the fattening cattle and sheep market is also facing the pressure of production capacity.
Oil products market: oil prices fell 7.52%, the third oil price drop this year......
It is understood that in accordance with the domestic oil price management mechanism, this round of pricing cycle is the 10th adjustment cycle of the year, and the price adjustment time will be determined at 24 o'clock on May 15, referring to the change performance of international crude oil on April 29 ~ May 14!
It is reported that in this round of pricing cycle, in terms of international crude oil, the starting point of WTI crude oil prices is 83.85 US dollars / barrel, and the starting point of Brent crude oil prices is 89.5 US dollars / barrel! Up to now, WTI crude oil is quoted at 78.19 US dollars / barrel, Brent crude oil is quoted at 82.77 US dollars / barrel, international crude oil prices have stopped rising, and prices have shown a sharp downward trend, among them, WTI crude oil prices fell 6.75% in the cycle, Brent crude oil fell 7.52% in the cycle, and international oil prices showed a significant downward trend!
According to institutional analysis, in the overnight market, international oil prices rose and fell, although the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks ended in vain, and Israel entered Rafah, which exacerbated the risk of further escalation of geopolitical tensions, and there was a certain support for international oil prices!
However, due to the pressure of "stagflation" in the United States, the inflation rate remains high at about 2.7%, and it is difficult to reach the Fed's expectation to control at the level of 2%, the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates have decreased again, and the Fed spokesman remains skeptical about the prospect of interest rate cuts, and some institutions are even worried that the Fed may "raise interest rates", which inhibits the performance of the market's expectations for crude oil consumption and exacerbates the downward pressure on oil prices!
Therefore, due to various factors in the market, in terms of domestic refined oil, the 7th working day after the end of this round of pricing cycle, the rate of change of crude oil remained at -4.55%, and the price of gasoline and diesel is estimated to fall by 230 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to the price of 92/95 gasoline is estimated to fall by 0.17~0.21 yuan/liter!
According to the volume of 50 liters of private cars, fill up a tank of fuel, it is estimated that Shanghai is 8.5~10.5 yuan! However, the final price adjustment has not yet been determined, next Wednesday, oil prices will start the price adjustment mode, and the author will continue to pay attention to the changes in the market!
Attached: On May 12, 2024, the price of No. 92 gasoline in all provinces and cities across the country (the level of 70 yuan/ton will be lowered at the end of April, and the oil price will be adjusted at 24 o'clock on the 15th)
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