China Fund News reporter Li Shuchao
With the recent recovery of the stock market and the decline in the yield of the commodity base, the scale of currency ETFs, which are the vane of "on-site margin wealth management", has shrunk significantly. According to the data, the latest total scale of 27 currency ETFs in the whole market is 184.4 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly 48 billion yuan from the high point in late February, a decrease of more than 20%.
Interviewees and industry insiders said that the decline in the yield of the cargo base and the recovery of the A-share stock market, the increase in the risk appetite of on-site funds, may lead to the diversion of some funds to stock assets with higher money-making effect. A number of institutions will also enhance the attractiveness of such products by increasing product yields and enriching trading strategies.
The stock market rebounded, and the scale of currency ETFs shrank by more than 20% at its peak
Wind data shows that as of May 10, the total size of 27 currency ETFs in the whole market was 184.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.7 billion yuan from the high point on February 21 this year, a decrease of 20.5%. Among them, the scale of the head currency ETF products led the decline, and the scale of Yinhua Rili ETF shrank by 22.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 21%; Huabao Tianyi ETF shrank by 23.5 billion yuan, or 23%.
According to the data of the Asset Management Association of China, the scale of money market funds also fell after the rebound from the low point of the stock market in February, and the scale decreased by nearly 290 billion yuan in March.
On the other hand, the rebound of the stock market has also increased the risk appetite of funds, and funds may be diverted from lower-risk commodity bases, especially on-site margin wealth management to equity assets.
Wind data shows that as of May 10, the average 7-day annualized return of 27 currency ETFs was 1.66%. The average annualized rate of return of the cargo-based class A share in the whole market in the past 7 days was 1.62%, down 72 bps from the beginning of the year, and the cargo-based yield declined significantly.
A public fixed-income fund manager said that currency ETFs have the characteristics of good liquidity, convenient trading, and strong sensitivity to the market, and the changes in product scale have a certain relationship with their own yields and stock market activity. With the recovery of the stock market this year, the decline in the yield of the commodity base, and the gradual rise in investors' risk appetite, the stock market may attract some funds and the scale of currency ETFs will shrink.
Respondents believe that, generally speaking, the increase or decrease in the size of currency ETFs and the rise and fall of the stock market will show a "seesaw effect".
In the view of a public fund distribution agency, the on-exchange currency ETF is essentially a commodity base, which is more convenient than the over-the-counter commodity base, and after selling the fund on the same day, you can directly invest in stocks, and you can buy a currency ETF and calculate the income on the same day you sell stocks, so there is a "seesaw effect" between the two.
It will enhance its attractiveness in terms of enriching trading strategies
Under the above-mentioned "seesaw effect", the interviewed institutions and industry insiders said that the direction of change in the scale of currency ETFs is mainly subject to the rise and fall of the stock market and the change of its own yield.
The above-mentioned public fund distribution agency believes that the shrinking trend of subsequent currency ETFs will be affected by the following factors: first, there is a certain correlation with the stock market, and the follow-up can pay attention to whether the macro economy can maintain a good start in the first quarter and the stock market maintains a good momentum; Second, the monetary policy is easy to loosen and difficult to tighten, and the yield on the cargo base is not high under abundant liquidity; Third, the new capital regulations have been officially implemented, and the attractiveness of the cargo base to banks is also declining.
"On the whole, under the background of low interest rates of bond mayors, it is expected that the yield of the cargo base will fall. The scale of cargo-based ETFs is greatly disturbed by the stock market, and the shrinkage momentum may be alleviated in the stock market volatility. The relevant person of the public fund distribution agency said.
Specifically, from the perspective of yield, the above-mentioned public fund distribution agency believes that in the short term, the imbalance between supply and demand in the second quarter of this year is expected to improve, the game power is gradually increasing, the market volatility is expected to increase, and the yield of the cargo base is not flexible to rebound in the bond market shock. In the long run, the Politburo meeting proposed to "increase efforts to reduce the financing cost of the real economy", and it is expected that there is still room for interest rate cuts, and the probability of policy promoting interest rates downward is relatively large, and the yield on the basis of goods is expected to fall in a low interest rate environment.
The above-mentioned public fixed income fund manager said that instrument products such as currency ETFs are currently highly concentrated, and some products with earlier layouts have first-mover advantages. Existing products can also enhance the attractiveness and competitiveness of products by increasing product yield, improving the efficiency of on-exchange trading, doing a good job in liquidity management, and enriching arbitrage trading strategies.
Editor: Captain
Review: Xu Wen