Xinhua Finance and Economics, Beijing, May 11 (Reporter Zhai Zhuo) The financial data for April was released on the 11th. According to the data, in April, RMB loans increased by about 730 billion yuan, a cumulative increase of 10.19 trillion yuan in the first four months, and the stock of social financing scale and the balance of broad money (M2) at the end of the month increased by 8.3% and 7.2% year-on-year respectively.
Industry experts generally said that the total amount of loans in April was "not small", the credit structure continued to be optimized, the interest rate level remained low, and the RMB exchange rate remained basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, creating a good monetary and financial environment for high-quality economic development.
In April, the credit supply was "not small", and the interest rate on new loans was still at a historically low level
According to data from the People's Bank of China, credit delivery in April was "not small", the pace was more stable and moderate, and new RMB loans increased year-on-year in the month.
Industry insiders generally said that the central bank has achieved remarkable results in guiding the reasonable growth and balanced delivery of loans, and the stability and sustainability of credit delivery have been enhanced.
For example, in the view of Zhang Jun, chief economist of Galaxy Securities, the "roller coaster" phenomenon of credit delivery caused by the "good start" of financial institutions in previous years has been reduced this year, and the index orientation of financial institutions to rush performance has weakened, and credit delivery has become more stable.
In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 10.19 trillion yuan, maintaining a relatively high level in the same period in history, and the balance of RMB loans at the end of the month increased by 9.6% year-on-year, the growth rate was the same as that at the end of last month.
In the same period, the growth of social financing scale was also relatively stable, with a total increase of 12.73 trillion yuan in the first four months, and the stock of social financing scale at the end of the month increased by 8.3% year-on-year, which was still significantly higher than the nominal economic growth rate, indicating that financial support for the real economy remained stable.
Looking ahead, Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst of Huachuang Securities, expects that the subsequent issuance of government bonds will be accelerated, and there will still be a considerable net financing scale throughout the year, which will form a stable support for the growth rate of social financing.
At the same time, the credit structure continued to be optimized to facilitate economic transformation and upgrading. In April, the People's Bank of China set up a new 500 billion yuan reloan for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation, relaxed the scope of support tools for inclusive small and micro loans, continued to implement special reloans for inclusive pensions, and guided commercial banks to do a good job in financial "five major articles" by improving policy incentive mechanisms.
Doing a good job in the "five major articles" has become the driving force of financial services for the real economy. According to the analysis of Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian, the new re-lending tool provides financial institutions with stable funds at lower costs, which will help guide commercial banks to better do a good job in the five major articles, leverage more social capital to invest in scientific and technological innovation, and help promote a new round of large-scale equipment renewal.
At the same time, the optimization of credit investment can also reflect the requirements of revitalizing financial resources. "For market entities that have real and reasonable financing needs and are in line with the direction of high-quality development, providing more convenient and preferential loan support is conducive to revitalizing the stock of funds, alleviating the idling of capital precipitation, and improving the efficiency of financial resource allocation." Some industry insiders said.
In addition to the total amount and structure, the price of funds is also an important indicator to reflect the strength of financial support.
The reporter learned from the People's Bank of China that the weighted average interest rate of new loans issued by enterprises in April was 3.76%, basically the same as the end of last month and 23 basis points lower than the same period last year; The interest rate on new loans for personal housing was 3.7%, 2 basis points lower than the previous month and 48 basis points lower than the same period last year, both at historical lows.
Multiple factors "drag" the growth rate of M2 to slow down, and it is expected to gradually stabilize in the next few months
In April, the growth rate of money supply slowed, which caused widespread concern in the market. According to data from the People's Bank of China, at the end of April, the balance of broad money (M2) was 301.19 trillion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year and down 1.1 percentage points month-on-month.
"In fact, the central bank has long predicted the factors that will affect the decline in monetary growth, and has continued to speak out through the press conference of the State Council Information Office and other occasions in the early stage. The slowdown in money supply growth is due to a combination of factors, and it is expected that the growth rate of money supply will stabilize in the coming months. Zhang Yu said.
Specifically, first, the bond market has continued to rise since the beginning of this year. Residents' enthusiasm for purchasing wealth management has increased, bank deposits have been diverted and transformed into non-bank products such as wealth management, non-bank institutions have abundant funds, and the demand for borrowing money from banks to purchase bonds has decreased.
The reporter learned from industry insiders that the growth rate of asset management products has rebounded rapidly recently, with a year-on-year increase of more than 11% at the end of April, which has largely diverted bank on-balance sheet deposits.
"The 'diversion' of deposits to the financial market is one of the important reasons for the decline in M2 growth. The growth rate of M1 has also fallen due to this, as bond prices have risen, the yield of related wealth management product investment has risen, and the situation of corporate demand deposits 'moving' to wealth management is also more obvious. Zhang Yu said.
Second, the phenomenon of idling funds and manual interest supplementation has been standardized. Some people in the industry told reporters that many departments have recently increased the standardization of the phenomenon of "low loans and high deposits" idling arbitrage and manual interest supplementation by banks, and a considerable number of inflated and non-standard deposits and loans in the past have decreased, and there is a "squeezing" effect in the short term.
"However, the demand of financial institutions for an effective real economy is still fully satisfied, and the financial aggregate supports the economy more effectively and efficiently. This is not only a manifestation of the high-quality development of finance, but also promotes the main business of the business entity to avoid the precipitation of funds and idling. The above-mentioned industry insiders said.
Third, the optimization and adjustment of the value-added accounting of the financial industry also has an impact. In the first quarter of 2024, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) optimized and adjusted the quarterly accounting method for the added value of the financial sector. In the short term, this adjustment may pull down and disturb the total amount of money and credit, but in the long run, it is conducive to the high-quality development of finance.
It is understood that in the past, the accounting method mainly referred to the balance of loans, but there were many drawbacks such as the added value of the financial industry may be "fat", increase the month-end fluctuation of the total amount of money and credit, and aggravate the phenomenon of capital idling, while the optimized accounting method mainly refers to the bank's profit index.
According to the analysis of industry experts, the new accounting method may inevitably bring about the disturbance of "squeezing water" in the short term, which will have a downward impact on the total amount of money and credit, but in the long run, it is a good thing, the growth of the total amount of money and credit and the added value of the financial industry will be more substantial, and the efficiency of capital circulation and turnover will be higher, which is conducive to promoting the comprehensive development of banking business.
Looking ahead, with the gradual improvement of the financing demand of the real economy, the financing demand of government departments is expected to accelerate, and the bond market is gradually returning to the fundamental logic, industry insiders generally expect that the growth rate of money supply will stabilize in the next few months.
Editor: Liu Runrong
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