If there is no sharp rise in Hong Kong stocks on Friday, it is also safe to understand the pullback of A shares on Friday. After all, it is normal for a pullback to occur after a big rally.
Compared with the recent surge in Hong Kong stocks, the trend of A-shares is really shocking, lagging behind Hong Kong stocks by a large margin. Hong Kong stocks have entered a technical bull market. In fact, for A-shares, the Shenzhen Component Index and the Growth Enterprise Market have risen by more than 20% since the current round of rebound, and although the Shanghai Index has risen by only about 15%, since 2635 points, since Friday's highest point of 3163 points, the maximum increase has also exceeded 20%, so that A-shares have also entered a technical bull market.
Of course, for most investors, there must be a fire in their hearts, because since this round of rebound, many people have not made money at all, and many individual stocks have fallen very badly, and I don't know what has risen in this technical bull market?
According to the previous idea, as long as the index rises back and the index bull comes, almost their own individual stocks will be unbundled. But now this idea may not be valid, and it is obvious that the index will not make money if it rises, and the index will lose more if it falls slightly. Even if the index rises to 4,200 points by the end of the year, as Goldman Sachs predicted, it is likely that most stocks will still lose money. If you buy it at 3000 points, will you be able to make money at 3500 points, like Lao Hu entered the market around 3140 points last year, and now he is still losing a mess.
The main reason is that the number of individual stocks has increased sharply, and 3,000 points under more than 5,000 stocks is only equivalent to more than 1,000 points under more than 2,000 stocks. Looking only at the composite index, there is a great deal of distortion. In the future, even if the index really slows down the bull market, you may not be able to make money.
Success is also foreign investment, and defeat is also foreign investment. Monday and Thursday's rise was due to the sharp inflow of foreign capital, and the rest of the time was due to a small outflow or large outflow of foreign capital and fell.
Although everyone is accustomed to taking foreign investment as a weather vane, this kind of good life has come to an end, because from next Monday onwards, there will be no real announcement of foreign investment intraday trends, I really don't know whether it is a good thing or a bad thing, and there are mixed reviews for this.
The reason why the real-time trading trend of foreign investors is closed, experts explain that A-shares are still a market dominated by retail investors, so as to avoid the disturbance of northbound funds, reduce the irrational trading of retail investors, and protect investors.
To be honest, I don't agree with this, everyone can say in their hearts, if you track the trend of foreign capital for a long time and follow the footsteps of foreign capital, at least from the perspective of the overall market, the winning rate is very high. Don't discuss what real foreign capital or fake foreign capital is, you follow the trend of foreign capital is a high probability of winning.
Do you think that foreign capital with a total market value of less than 2 trillion yuan, and less than 100 billion yuan of daily trading, can influence 85 trillion A shares, but in fact, the net inflow of foreign capital, A-shares will rise, and the net outflow of foreign capital will fall. However, when domestic capital is bought by foreign capital, it is only when the inflow or outflow is greatly reduced, and the rest of the time is smashed sharply. It gives people the impression that even domestic capital, which holds tens of trillions of shares, is also buying and selling with the trend of foreign capital. It seems to be quite embarrassing, who is to blame, and what is the problem?
To be honest, closing the real-time trading of foreign intraday trading, which can still be seen by those who really want to see it, is likely to become a charging function of many software, and you can see it with money, and for many institutional funds, it has no impact at all, and I think this is creating a new unfairness.
Why is Hong Kong stocks so strong recently, and the reaction of A shares is so cold, Hong Kong A can be said to share weal and pain, and the lips are cold and the teeth are cold. Why did the sharp rise in Hong Kong stocks fail to drive the rise of A-shares?
In fact, I think that the main trend factor for the recent rise of Hong Kong stocks and A-shares is the inflow of foreign capital, which is deeply felt by investors in A-shares, and the degree of openness of Hong Kong stocks is naturally higher than that of A-shares, and the flow of foreign capital into Hong Kong stocks is much more convenient than the flow into A-shares. Therefore, Hong Kong stocks can quickly attract a large number of foreign investment. This is also the main reason why Hong Kong stocks are stronger than A-shares, and the reason why A-shares weakened on Friday is mainly due to the sharp outflow of foreign capital.
As for the soaring of Hong Kong stocks on Friday, it is mainly due to the news that the regulator is considering reducing the dividend tax on Hong Kong stocks, and this news has detonated the market! Today, Hong Kong's related dividend sectors collectively rose sharply, dominating the list of gainers.
For A-shares, the main force of the rise came from foreign capital. However, foreign investors also need a driving force to go long in A-shares, and if there is no good news, although they believe in the growth rate of China's economy in the long term, they need more positive factors in the short term, otherwise foreign capital will not be willing to flow in. The sharp return of foreign capital on Monday was stimulated by the sharp rise in the external market during the May Day period, while the RMB exchange rate appreciated to 7.16 during the May Day period, and Thursday was due to the news of the equalization fund. In addition to the fact that there was no blockbuster news drive on Friday. However, foreign capital cannot keep going long to carry a sedan chair for domestic capital, but constantly selling high and buying low, and always throwing it out at a high level after buying big.
Of course, Friday's news is not very friendly, while the foreign capital has outflowed 6.3 billion, domestic capital has outflowed 24.6 billion, and the two major institutions have a total outflow of more than 30 billion. There are several main points of negative news:
1. The United States has created friction again, first, Biden was revealed to announce new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles as soon as next week, and second, the United States has included 37 Chinese entities in the "entity list" of export control; Third, the U.S. House of Representatives introduced an export control bill on AI-related models.
To tell the truth, everyone is accustomed to creating friction in the United States, there was such news before the market, but after the fall, everyone took it to talk about it, and if it rose, it would be good to talk about it. But in any case, we must fully understand that the external pressure is long-term and will affect A-shares from time to time. It will indeed have a negative impact on related enterprises.
2. Citi downgraded the rating of Chinese stocks to neutral, which may also be a combination of old America.
In the final analysis, singing more and singing short is completely out of the need for interests, and we must not be lost by the singing of foreign capital. The game in the financial market will also become one of the main battlefields of the great power game. In the long run, domestic capital should be self-reliant, do not pin hope on foreign capital, foreign capital can only be icing on the cake, the so-called purpose of sending charcoal in the snow is also to better cut leeks, funds are driven by interests, not to do charity.
3. The policy side has strengthened delisting and the size of the non-accelerated reduction of holdings, which has put pressure on the speculation of theme stocks in the short term, and ST shares have been falling for many days.
Intensify delisting efforts to speed up the metabolism of the market. This is the focus of the capital market reform, only by letting the garbage companies clear out faster, to the market into fresh blood, the market has the foundation for growth. However, the construction of the system must be unimpeded, and it cannot be just blocked and not sparse. It is necessary to speed up the construction of the delisting compensation mechanism. Put the protection of investors' interests first. For example, some companies that have been delisted due to clear financial fraud must sometimes introduce corresponding compensation measures to protect investors. Otherwise, a large number of individual stocks fall every day, and investors are uneasy.
The sectors that rose on Friday were mainly real estate industry chains, real estate services and development, small household appliances, decorative building materials, household goods, etc., as well as banks, securities, insurance and other weighted protective disks. On Thursday, the concept of lithium battery fell sharply, human brain engineering, flying cars, disperse dyes and other recent active plates fell sharply, the plate switch is too fast, the opportunity is not easy to grasp, the operation must not be chased, and you can only hold shares firmly.
It's going to change next week! There is a significant change in northbound funds, and the real-time transaction amount may no longer be disclosed from next Monday.
Finally, let's take a look at the changes in the news after Friday's hours:
1. The central bank released the report on the implementation of China's monetary policy in the first quarter. Regarding monetary policy, we will maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, and increase support for the real economy! It is also rumored that the RRR will be lowered on the weekend, and I feel that there should be a drama.
No matter how loose liquidity is on the stock market, the market is not bad for money, the poor is confidence, and the lack is the money-making effect, as long as there is confidence, there is a money-making effect, the money will immediately flow into the market, but if the big money is not confident in the market, no matter how much money will not flow into the stock market.
2. After a lapse of 3 months, the IPO will resume normal review! The first project to attend the conference after the year was Marco Polo
On May 10, the reporter noticed that the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges issued the latest announcement of the listing committee review meeting. The Listing Review Committee of the Shanghai Stock Exchange is scheduled to hold the 13th review meeting of the Listing Review Committee in 2024 on May 16 to review the refinancing project application of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Technology Co., Ltd. The Listing Review Committee is scheduled to hold the 9th Listing Review Committee Review Meeting in 2024 on May 16 to consider the initial listing application of Marco Polo Holdings Co., Ltd.
In recent months, the pace of new share issuance has been really slow, and it feels like there has been no new share subscription for a long time. Although the normalization of IPO review does not mean that the listing is accelerated, in any case, it is not a good thing.
3. National Bureau of Statistics: CPI rose 0.3% year-on-year in April, and PPI fell 2.5% year-on-year
In April, consumer demand continued to recover, and the national CPI turned from a decline to an increase month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.2% month-on-month and fell 0.6% in the previous month. It rose 0.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month.
It's really boring to go up that bit. The PPI fell quite a bit year-on-year, and it seems that the blockbuster data is not ideal. No wonder the market pulled back on Friday.
There are many news, not listed one by one, in short, the news is not ideal, there is no reason to stimulate institutions to do long, the probability of falling back again in the short term is still large, and the short-term operation remains cautious, and can only wait for the opportunity to buy low. Medium- and long-term firm confidence in holdings.