Recently, the overall export market of mainland buses has developed well, and it is expected to continue to maintain in 2024. However, unlike the overall market, the export of pure electric buses is temporarily "cold". Customs data shows that in the first quarter of 2024, 1,750 pure electric buses were exported from the mainland, a year-on-year decrease of 21%.
The reason may be due to the fact that Western countries are currently slowing down the pace of electrification, coupled with the United States' "suppression" of new energy vehicles on the mainland.
Judging from the current policies of European and American countries, the time node of electrification is delayed: the United Kingdom has postponed the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles from 2030 to 2035, Germany has directly canceled the purchase subsidy for electric vehicles, and the United States also intends to slow down the transformation plan of electric vehicles.
At the same time, the government began to take action to "crack down" on China's electric vehicles. For example, not long ago, U.S. President Joe Biden announced that he would launch an investigation into Chinese-made connected cars, citing so-called "potential national security risks". In January 2024, the U.S. Congress passed a new law that would prohibit the U.S. Department of Defense from buying batteries from six Chinese companies, including CATL, BYD, and EVE, starting in October 2027. In addition, in March last year, the European Union began a "countervailing" investigation into Chinese electric vehicles, with the intention of restricting the export of new energy vehicles from the mainland.
In short, the electrification of Europe and the United States "stepping on the brakes" may affect the export market of new energy buses in the mainland to a certain extent. After all, the main target market for the export of new energy buses in mainland China is completely different from the export positioning of traditional power buses. New energy buses are mainly exported to economically developed countries such as Europe, America, Japan and South Korea, while traditional power buses are mainly exported to economically underdeveloped countries.
It is worth mentioning that, contrary to overseas exports, the domestic new energy bus market may end the previous downturn and may usher in recovery growth in 2024.
There are three main bases for this judgment: first, various policy drivers at the national and local levels to support the development of new energy buses; Second, the domestic economic environment is gradually out of the predicament, and the demand for new energy buses is gradually recovering; Third, the impact of the withdrawal of new energy vehicle purchase subsidies has gradually weakened, and the development of market-driven new energy buses has gradually become the norm.
This can also be preliminarily verified from the year-on-year increase in the new energy bus market in the first quarter of this year. According to the terminal licensing data, the cumulative sales of domestic new energy buses in the first quarter of 2024 will be 9,151, a year-on-year increase of 81.6%.
It can be seen that in the context of "cold" overseas exports, the task of achieving restorative growth in the mainland new energy bus market in 2024 can only rely on domestic demand, and the growth of domestic demand mainly depends on the incremental market of new energy buses.
So the question is, where is the main incremental market of the domestic new energy bus market in 2024? According to the market research situation and the specific sales data of new energy buses in the first quarter, the following bus terminal network will briefly analyze the main incremental market of domestic new energy buses in 2024, which is for industry reference only.
First, focus on the new energy vehicle policy as the driving demand-oriented regional market
In fact, since the beginning of this year, the national and local levels have introduced a lot of policies to promote the development of new energy vehicles, including new energy buses, which will undoubtedly become the main driving force for the incremental market of new energy passengers in the mainland this year.
For example, not long ago, the State Council issued the "Action Plan for Promoting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Trade-in of Consumer Goods". Subsequently, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Beijing and other regions quickly followed up on the "Action Plan" and issued corresponding policies to implement it in a timely manner.
On April 2, 2024, Zhejiang Province issued the "Several Measures to Promote Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-in in Zhejiang Province", which will update 500 electric buses every year from 2024, and strive to achieve 95% of the electrification ratio of urban buses in the main urban areas of districted cities by 2027. In the future, no less than 50 car trade-in promotions and tour exhibitions will be organized every year, old cars that meet the mandatory scrapping standards will be eliminated in accordance with laws and regulations, and Hangzhou will continue to optimize the bus regulation and control policies.
On April 9, 2024, Guangzhou issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Trade-in of Consumer Goods in Guangzhou", which pointed out that it is necessary to realize the comprehensive replacement of electrification of vehicles used by official and state-owned enterprises and institutions, and support the replacement of old new energy buses and batteries.
In mid-April 2024, the Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission issued the "Key Points of Beijing's Energy Work in 2024", proposing 50 annual key tasks. In terms of vigorously promoting the innovation and application of key energy technologies, the city will promote the comprehensive new energy transformation of vehicles in the public sector, and plans to promote 36,300 new energy vehicles in the public sector such as official vehicles, city buses, airport vehicles, and so on by 2025.
On April 28, Beijing issued the "Beijing Action Plan for Actively Promoting Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-in" to encourage the renewal of new energy vehicles in the field of public transportation, and actively organize and guide automobile production and sales enterprises to give more preferential treatment to new energy vehicles through replacement subsidies and value-added after-sales service.
It can be seen that Zhejiang, Guangdong, Beijing and other provinces and cities are more active and pragmatic in the implementation of the "Action Plan", and there are relatively clear specific goals in the trade-in of new energy buses. There is a high probability that it can become a regional market with a large increase in the new energy bus market.
Second, from the actual sales of new energy buses year-on-year growth rate to judge its incremental area
Generally speaking, according to the year-on-year growth rate of actual sales of new energy buses, the next development trend can be judged. That is, the higher the year-on-year growth rate of sales in the current regional market, the greater its future market potential and may become a regional market with a larger increase in the future.
1. The main incremental markets for large and medium-sized new energy buses may be in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Chongqing, Guizhou, Sichuan, Shandong and Heilongjiang.
According to the terminal licensing data, in the first quarter of 2024, the domestic sales of new energy buses and regional markets with a high year-on-year growth rate were: Beijing sold 626 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 38.3%; Guangdong sold 626 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1127.5%; Jiangsu sold 532 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 84.1%; Chongqing sold 343 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 2350%; Guizhou sold 324 vehicles, up 10,700% year-on-year; Sichuan sold 285 vehicles, up 296% year-on-year; Shandong sold 196 vehicles, up 221.3% year-on-year; Heilongjiang sales of 173 vehicles, a year-on-year net increase (due to the long cold time in Heilongjiang, there was no sales of large and medium-sized new energy buses last year, but with the progress of battery technology, the net increase of 173 new energy large and medium-sized buses in the first quarter of this year).
In the above 8 provinces (cities), the year-on-year growth rate of large and medium-sized new energy buses in the first quarter is relatively high, and it is likely to be a large incremental market for large and medium-sized new energy buses in China in 2024.
2. The incremental area of light new energy buses may be in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Beijing, Anhui, Hubei, Chongqing and Hunan.
According to the terminal licensing data, in the first quarter of 2024, the domestic new energy light passenger car sales growth rate will be higher than the 8 regional markets: Guangdong sales of 1,614 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 329.3%; Jiangsu sold 441 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 171%; Zhejiang sold 318 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 43.2%; Beijing sales of 253 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1481.2%; Anhui sales of 165 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 358.3%; Hubei sold 164 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1390.9%; Chongqing sold 155 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 675%; Hunan sold 116 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 222.2%.
In the above 8 provinces, the year-on-year growth rate of light new energy buses in the first quarter of this year is higher, which may mean that light new energy buses will begin to recover this year, and it is likely to be a larger incremental market for domestic light new energy buses in 2024.
From the perspective of the comprehensive new energy large, medium and light bus market, Guangdong, Beijing, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Chongqing are likely to become the most important incremental markets for domestic new energy buses in 2024.
3. Judging the main incremental models from the year-on-year sales growth rate of each length segment
According to the terminal licensing information, in the first quarter of 2024, the sales volume of segmented models in each length segment and the same period last year: 307 vehicles were sold in 11-12 meters, a year-on-year increase of 752.8%; 10-11 meters sales of 1,870 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 39.2%; 8-9 meters sales of 2,357 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 115.3%; 671 vehicles were sold in 6-7 meters, a year-on-year increase of 55%; The sales volume of 4-6 meters was 3,505 units, a year-on-year increase of 252.6%.
It can be seen that 4-6 meters, 11-12 meters, 8-9 meters, and 10-11 meters may be the four main subdivisions with the largest increase in 2024.
To sum up, in the context of overseas exports, the main incremental markets for domestic new energy buses in 2024 will be in Guangdong, Beijing, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Chongqing and other regions, while the incremental models are mainly in 4-6 meters, 11-12 meters, 8-9 meters and 10-11 meters.
It is hoped that this analysis can provide a certain reference for car companies to formulate marketing strategies for new energy buses.