The myth of Warren Buffett, the "god of stocks", continues to continue, he began to lay out a few years ago, and reaped Japan, not only continuing his "legend" again, but also teaching the world a lesson. Some Japanese consortia also followed him to compete for the first "national difficult wealth", why can the Japanese be at ease when they betray the country? However, Buffett's approach has also been criticized by Gu Chaoming, chief economist of Nomura Securities, who believes that Buffett is a liar who fabricates the illusion of Japan's economic recovery, with the aim of grabbing Japan's wealth from three aspects, which may mislead Japan to the abyss again.
Is Warren Buffett a "liar"?
Recently, Gu Chaoming, chief economist of Japan's Nomura Securities, said that the Japanese economy has not come out of the lost 30 years, and Japan's economic recovery is just a "story" made up by Warren Buffett.
This economist, who used to work for the Federal Reserve, can make such a judgment, and it is likely that it will not be untrue.
So, why does he say Buffett is a "liar"?
He believes that the recovery of Japanese real estate and the record high of the Nikkei index are not caused by the recovery of the Japanese economy, but the real reason is the depreciation of the yen.
Gu Chaoming believes that Buffett is not optimistic about the Japanese economy at all, he has not even been to Japan for 20 years, because Japan has negative interest rates before, Buffett issued Japanese bonds to buy Japanese stocks.
In order to let other investors "lift the sedan chair" for him, Buffett made up a lot of stories, such as Japanese companies are doing well, long-term optimistic about Japan, and the Japanese economy will continue to grow.
But for the Japanese people, it seems that nothing has changed, but inflation is getting higher and higher, and things are becoming more and more expensive, which is why Japan's so-called "spring fight" has appeared, which aims to oppose currency depreciation and rising prices, and demand an increase in wages.
Warren Buffett is the vane of global investment, so investors are flocking to it, and a large amount of foreign hot money has entered Japan, causing the Japanese stock market to be completely detached from economic fundamentals and forming a huge bubble.
But in fact, the Japanese people are not happy at all, because prices have skyrocketed, for example, an ordinary Chinese cabbage is sold for 100 yuan, about 2,153 yen, and two cucumbers are 45 yuan.
The average salary in Japan is about 250,000 yen, about 11,000 yuan, and 100 yuan for a cabbage.
Japan's overall prices have risen by about 40% in the past two years, and as of April 2024, Japan's core CPI has risen for 31 consecutive months.
In contrast, Japan's GDP has been negative for two consecutive quarters, and in the long run, Japan's aging population is becoming more and more serious, and people's incomes have been solidified.
The market value of Japanese stocks held by Warren Buffett has increased from 1.6 trillion yen to 2.9 trillion yen at the shareholders' meeting on May 4, a profit of 81%.
So if you think that Buffett is only making profits in the stock market, then you are underestimating him, in fact, he has harvested Japan from the three aspects of stocks and bonds, but it is a pity that the stupid Japanese or foreign capital are still constantly investing in the Japanese stock market, don't you know that the danger has already come
Killing three birds with one stone is a textbook
Warren Buffett fabricated the myth of Japan's economic recovery, first of all, to pave the way for his return to Japan and the bottom of the Japanese stock market.
In fact, Warren Buffett's stock investment in Japan has only one aspect, in fact, he has grabbed Japan's wealth from three aspects.
Because as he gradually withdraws from selling Japanese stocks, the high-ranking receiver will lose a lot, and the Japanese people will lose as much as Buffett earns.
After all, the Japanese economy has not really grown, and in this case, the Japanese stock market is a zero-sum game market, and some people make money and some people lose money.
Therefore, Buffett made a lot of money in the stock market.
How does Warren Buffett diversify his earnings in the stock market, foreign exchange market, and corporate bonds?
The secret of his success lies in his accurate insight into economic trends and in-depth understanding of national policies, and if we can share the information platform with Warren Buffett, we may be able to predict the situation of interest rate hikes in the United States, industrial relocation in Japan, and hot money inflows, and then make profits in many fields.
In fact, Warren Buffett can use the "domestic guarantee foreign loan" strategy, that is, borrowing money from the Bank of Japan with US dollars as collateral, and then using the proceeds to buy shares of Japanese companies.
In this way, not only can you benefit from the appreciation of your stocks, but you can also earn exchange rate benefits by exchanging fewer dollars for more yen when you repay your loans.
In addition, it can benefit from the interest rate differential between the two countries.
Since 2019, Berkshire Hathaway has issued several yen bonds, becoming one of the largest overseas issuers of yen bonds, with a record 430 billion yen issued in 2019.
On April 18, 2024, Warren Buffett issued another 263.3 billion yen bonds, which will not only help with financing, but also help hedge foreign exchange risks and avoid increased currency exposure.
Although Warren Buffett is well versed in U.S. policy, will the Japanese government obediently follow his advice?
In fact, in the past two years, Japan has tried to intervene in the exchange rate three times, most recently by almost 9 trillion yen, and the latest data shows that Japan's foreign exchange reserves have plummeted by $11.6 billion.
After the first two interventions, Abe was assassinated, the three major factions of Japan's ruling party were dismantled, and then Japan began to increase its holdings of U.S. debt.
There is some kind of connection behind all these things, and what you can see is just what the United States wants you to see.
This is also on May 4, Buffett once again said that the main direction of his investment is the United States, and he does not understand foreign policies.
The reasons behind this are easy to understand, but Buffett's current cash position has hit a record high, which also reflects his view of the bubble in the US stock market.
However, the public does not understand the hidden mystery behind this, and even the Japanese people have followed Buffett to make a fortune in the "national disaster".
The Japanese are making a fortune?
Today's economic situation and the situation facing Japan are very similar to those in the early 90s, but Japan has also gained experience this time, that is, forcibly intervening in the foreign exchange market.
Since the signing of the Plaza Accord in 1985, the United States, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom have joined forces to regularly sell US bonds and quietly buy yen, resulting in a sharp appreciation of the yen.
At that time, the total value of all types of real estate in Tokyo was enough to buy most of the United States, and the speculation was so popular that the Japanese economy was bigger than Japan's.
In 1990, when the Federal Reserve suddenly announced an interest rate hike, people bought dollar bonds or deposited them in U.S. banks to obtain higher interest yields, which triggered a large-scale return of U.S. dollars to the United States, and the supply of U.S. dollars in the market was in short supply, the U.S. dollar appreciated, and other currencies depreciated.
At present, the interest rate differential between the yen and the dollar is 55 times, which means that the same yen asset will be more than twice as far as if it were placed in Japan.
So most of the Japanese people are going through such a long and painful process of shrinking their assets, as was the case in the 91s, and it is the same today.
The Japanese economy has entered a lost 30 years with the Japanese stock market shrinking by more than 70% in 10 years, housing prices in Tokyo plummeting by 90%, many Japanese people going bankrupt because they cannot afford huge debts, more than 180 banks going bankrupt, and high-quality assets being bought by Wall Street capital.
Now, we see the US dollar deflected in 2019 and the Japanese stock market rose sharply, and in 2020 the US dollar deflected again and the Japanese stock market rose again.
However, in 2021, the US dollar suddenly announced a rate hike and the yen began to depreciate sharply, and surprisingly, the Japanese stock market remained firm. Since the salary level has not been adjusted for many years, almost all of the people in Japan have invested in the stock market and placed their pensions on the stock market.
Since 2020, Japan's real economy such as the automobile, shipbuilding, and semiconductor industries has gradually lagged behind China, and the total economic volume has also been overtaken by Germany, and may even be surpassed by India in the next few years.
At a time when the real economy is continuing to recession, the Japanese stock market has bucked the trend and shown a boom, but in fact it has long been hollowed out.
When the yen exchange rate is low and the stock market is high, European and American capital will burst the bubble at the lowest cost, harvest high-quality assets, and then quickly withdraw, leaving only a destitute Japanese people.
In this regard, we might as well refer to the true face of the Japanese top leaders represented by Kishida, who are obviously American compradors, taking advantage of the opportunity to make a lot of money, they do not care about the well-being of the people, but will follow the American masters, buy at a low price and sell at a high price, so as to realize the appreciation of their own assets.
Most of the Japanese people have seen the yen continue to depreciate but are unable to do anything, and a small part of the middle class, driven by the interest-free lending policy, have borrowed from banks and transferred funds to overseas banks to obtain interest rate differentials, and large conglomerates can accumulate as much as 100 billion yuan, and small companies may only have a balance of several million yuan.
Despite the disparity, they are working together to accelerate the run on Japan's foreign exchange reserves and wait for the yen to depreciate further, at which point they can use the appreciated dollar to repay the depreciating yen debt and easily grab the country's wealth.
However, the impact of the yen's depreciation goes far beyond that, which will lead to higher cost pressures on Japan, a resource-poor country, to import oil and commodities, and the core reason for the surge in Japan's core CPI.
Even so, Warren Buffett and a number of big capitals in Japan, they have already made a lot of money by using their own advantages, leaving only some Japanese people who eat melons messy in the wind.
In contrast, the mainland renminbi has a strong industrial strength behind the support, and there is a foreign exchange control policy, so the purchasing power of the renminbi will be more than five times that of Japan and South Korea, Chinese cabbage is an example, in China a Chinese cabbage should be able to buy 20 yuan.
This is also the reason why many international organizations believe that China has already surpassed the United States in terms of GDP in terms of purchasing power, and it is also the reason why the products made in the mainland are of high quality and low price.
Information sources:
"Japan's Foreign Exchange Reserves Fall to $1,278.9 Billion" Jiemian News
"Warren Buffett Issued 263.3 Billion Yen Bonds, or Released a Bullish Day Stock Signal" and Xun.com
"Japan's core CPI has risen year-on-year for 31 consecutive months" Xinhua News Agency
#头条创作挑战赛#