To invest is to invest in the country! The growth of the enterprise with the national fortune, the investment profit with the growth of the enterprise snowball! The rise of the Chinese nation is unstoppable! Looking at the world, looking forward to the future, the right time, place and people, the A-share long bull market will surely rise!
Perspective the stock market puzzle, insight into industry trends, grasp investment opportunities, be a person who understands the stock market, and make a clear investment! Maybe a single click can change your financial luck!
First, four reasons, the A-share long bull market will rise!
1. The economic development has a strong foundation, full of resilience and huge potential, and the sustainable growth trend will be maintained for a long time.
After decades of overall development, coupled with the optimization, adjustment, transformation and upgrading in recent years, China's economy is no longer the same as it was two or three decades ago, with a deeper development background, broader development potential, stronger ability to resist risks, and more abundant and effective counter-cyclical adjustment methods. In the face of a turbulent and turbulent world situation, economies such as Europe and the United States are struggling with inflation, while China's economy is generally running smoothly and resilient, with GDP growth leading the world.
In this round of the Fed's fierce interest rate hike cycle, the depreciation of the exchange rate of many countries is worth stepping on, and there are many sharp declines of 30% or 40%, even if the yen has plummeted by more than 20%, and then look at the relatively strong performance of the RMB exchange rate.
The Fed's desperate interest rate hike is not only to curb inflation, but also to harvest the world. The huge US debt of 34 trillion yuan may be able to be repaid in the normal way, and it must harvest global wealth to fill this big hole. Its first target is China, followed by the European Union, and then Japan, and countries with too small economies are like eye medicine for it, and drizzle cannot cure serious diseases at all.
However, China's economic resilience has far exceeded the expectations of the United States, and its ability to resist external shocks has been greatly enhanced. The optimization, adjustment, transformation, upgrading and implementation of the economic structure have further laid a solid economic foundation, improved the quality of development, strengthened the economic driving force, improved the ability to resist risks, and reduced dependence on the European and American markets.
Compared with economies such as Europe and the United States, China's economy is more dynamic, the sustained growth trend will be maintained for a long time, and the GDP growth rate will still far exceed that of Europe and the United States for a long period of time.
2. The comprehensive national strength has continued to increase, the international status has continued to improve, the world influence has been significantly improved, and the ability to be independent has become increasingly strong.
The world pattern is undergoing far-reaching changes, and China's rise is unstoppable.
Japan, once the world's second-largest economy, has seen its share of world GDP decline since 1995.
In 1995, the United States accounted for 24.51% of the world's GDP, and in 2023, it will account for 24.2% of the world's GDP, which has been almost unchanged for nearly 30 years.
Looking at China's share of the world's GDP, it has soared from 2.37% in 1995 to 17.2% in 2023, leaving Japan far behind, and the gap with the United States is getting smaller and smaller. According to the current development momentum, it is only a matter of time before China's GDP surpasses that of the United States in the share of the world economy, and it will not be too long, probably within 10 years.
If you can understand China's strategic layout and the evolution of the world pattern, you will have more confidence in the future of the motherland.
China's circle of friends continues to expand, the strategic cooperative relationship with the Belt and Road countries, ASEAN and Russia has gradually deepened, and economic and trade exchanges continue to expand, and ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner.
The China-led AIIB, the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, the Hainan Free Trade Port, the RMB-denominated commodity exchanges, and the basket of currency swap agreements are all far-sighted, far-reaching, and influential, and play a vital role in accelerating the internationalization of the renminbi and enhancing China's international influence.
The construction of Gwadar Port has opened up a new outlet for China to the sea, docked with the "Belt and Road" railway line, bypassed the Strait of Malacca, broken the blockade of the "first island chain", and ensured the transportation of China's strategic materials and international trade, laying the foundation for China's strategic pattern in the coming decades.
With the orderly advancement of major strategies and the continuous improvement of comprehensive national strength, the rise of China is inevitable, and the pattern of A-share long-term bulls is also clear. In the end, the stock market point will inevitably match the national status and national economy, and although the process is tortuous, the final result is beyond doubt.
When making investment, you can't always stare at the ups and downs of the day, jump out of the limitations of thinking, enlarge your vision and look far, you will see another world, the investment pattern will be broadened all of a sudden, and the thinking will be clear all of a sudden.
3. A new round of global monetary easing cycle is coming, liquidity improvement is imminent, and the return of foreign capital to A-shares is the general trend.
The Fed is very good at expectation management, raising interest rates and cutting interest rates at one time, and the smoke bombs and signal flares are dazzling. In fact, you don't need to pay attention to how it tosses, you just need to know that it is likely to cut interest rates in the next few months, the global monetary tightening cycle will end, the easing cycle will come, and the RMB will usher in the medium-term appreciation opportunity. After the continuous outflow of foreign capital in 2023, the proportion of China's asset allocation has dropped to a historical low, and foreign capital will inevitably increase the proportion of China's asset allocation in the future.
4. The new "National Nine Articles" have been introduced to reshape the value investment pattern, scrape the bones to cure the poison, clean up the source, and grow long and slow cows.
The new "National Nine Measures" have a very clear orientation for strengthening the construction of the investment side and enhancing the investment value of the stock market. In the past year, a series of policies have been introduced to strengthen and accelerate the reform of the capital market, focusing on "strengthening the construction of the investment side, promoting the balance of investment and financing, enhancing the investment value of the stock market, promoting market fairness and justice, and protecting the interests of investors". By scraping the bones to cure the poison and cleaning up the source, many historical problems and institutional defects and loopholes are being fundamentally solved, and the foundation of A-share healthy cattle is gradually strengthened.
Yesterday, too many people were still worried that the market would plummet, and the comment area was almost occupied by bearish remarks, but today it turned around and Zhongyang broke out. The market wind has changed, confidence has returned, and the smell of the bull market is getting stronger. There is no mad bull running wild, but the slow cow pattern is forming.
Summary: Based on the above analysis, Dark Horse is highly optimistic about China's national fortunes, highly optimistic about the medium-term market of A-shares, and highly optimistic about investment opportunities in the next two to three years. Dip hunting and firmly holding high-quality targets is my current general investment strategy.
Second, market trends and hot topics
1. Sudden good, new energy, new energy vehicles, new energy vehicles, can the market continue?
Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Guide lithium battery companies to reduce manufacturing projects that simply expand production capacity. This move is regarded as the "supply-side reform" of the lithium battery industry, which is conducive to providing industry concentration and cutting excess capacity, which is good for leading enterprises. Stimulated by this good news, the entire new energy track has collectively risen sharply, can the market continue?
Industry fundamentals: The situation of new energy overcapacity is relatively serious, which can be seen from the continuous price reduction of photovoltaic modules and lithium carbonate. In April, the retail sales of passenger cars fell by 2% year-on-year, the new energy vehicle growth was zero month-on-month, and the domestic penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 50%, and the room for continued improvement is not particularly large.
Technicals:
Many friends hold new energy battery-related products, let's talk about it.
The bottom of the new energy battery is obviously large, indicating that there are funds to enter the market to buy the bottom, and there is a tendency to continue the band rebound in the medium term.
The short-term has reached the point of change. Rushed to the white line pressure level again, the previous impact has not passed, to digest the pressure, now is the third impact, the degree of volume is not bad, is expected to break through with the help of the good. The next pressure level after the breakout is at the blue line and the annual line.
If today's rally is just a one-day trip, the next step will turn into a range shock, as long as the shock process does not break the purple line support, the probability of finally choosing to break through to the top is high.
Let's sort out the ideas: although it is good to stimulate, the fundamentals of the industry have not improved, and the medium-term market is more of a stage rebound than a reversal. Therefore, there is no need to chase the price in terms of operation ideas, after all, the fundamentals are not so strong logical support. From the perspective of technical patterns, the rebound market has not yet ended, and it is more prudent to pay attention to dips.
2. Hang Seng Medical and Hang Seng Technology are going crazy again, or is it an opportunity?
Hong Kong stocks have been very strong recently, and they are performing well today, with Hang Seng Medical rising more than 3% intraday and Hang Seng Technology rising more than 2% intraday.
The fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks have warmed, foreign capital has continued to flow in, and the allocation of Chinese assets has increased, driving the Hong Kong stock market to continue to rise. The valuation repair logic is still in place, and the medium-term market has not yet been completed. The Hang Seng Technology and Hang Seng Medical holdings are still in the big bottom area, and the weekly investment continues.
The weekly line of Hang Seng Technology has just rushed to the semi-annual line, and there is great pressure here, and it needs to be washed. Due to the formation of a large double-bottom structure, entering the right-hand climbing period, then the pullback on the daily line will form an opportunity point.
Today, as planned, we will invest in the Science and Technology Innovation 50, and all other targets will not be held. The next step is to prepare to increase the position of CSI Data and Hang Seng Technology, increase investment in the main line of science and technology, and make a larger increase in the callback of precision medicine and CSI Medical, which depends on whether to give a chance to buy low.
Finally, please give a thumbs up, give encouragement and support, thank you very much!
The above content is personal opinion only and is not intended to be instructive. The mention of individual stock funds is only to record market views and the actual operation process, and accumulate materials for future creations, without making any recommendations, please do not blindly follow up. Past performance is not indicative of the future and investors should be aware of the risk of market volatility.