Metals were nearly green across the board, coking coal fell 4.72%, manganese silicon rose 3.22%, and European line container brushes hit a record high of #焦煤

Metals Market:

As of today's daytime close, the domestic base metals closed down nearly across the board, only Shanghai lead rose 0.99%, Shanghai nickel fell 2.84%, alumina fell 2.39%, Shanghai tin fell 2.26%, Shanghai copper fell 1.89%, Shanghai aluminum fell 1.40%, and Shanghai zinc fell 0.94%. Among them, Shanghai lead today brushed a new high of 18,055 yuan/ton since January 2, 2019, and then narrowed its rise.

As of 15:51 today, London nickel fell 2.84%, London zinc fell 2.30%, London copper and aluminum fell more than 1.80%, London tin fell 1.24%, and London lead fell 0.78%. Among them, the London lead brush has reached a new high of 2254.00 US dollars / ton since November 22, 2023 and then fell.

Lithium carbonate and industrial silicon fell 1.62% and 1.17% respectively. The main European line container ship closed up 3.53% in a row, brushing a record high of 3196.5 today. Manganese silicon continued to rise today, reaching a new high of 8,354 yuan/ton since June 14, 2022, closing up 3.22%.

The black series were all green, coking coal fell 4.72%, coke fell 3.91%, iron ore fell 2.91%, stainless steel fell 1.84%, hot coil fell 1.63%, and rebar fell 1.47%.

Precious metals are all green, and Shanghai gold and silver fell slightly. As of 15:51 today, COMEX gold and silver fell by about 0.20%.

As of 15:51 today

Spot & Fundamentals

Lead:

According to the SMM spot quotation, as of May 7, the spot price of SMM 1# lead ingot rose 175 yuan/ton in a single day to 17150~17250 yuan/ton, and the average price was 17200 yuan/ton. On the supply side, according to SMM's latest survey after the holiday, the supply side of refined lead has not improved due to the restrictions on lead ore raw materials and waste batteries, and primary lead smelters and recycled refined lead smelters have maintenance plans, among which recycled lead, by the "reverse invoicing" related policies temporarily disturbed the waste battery recycling market, resulting in a reduction in short-term waste recycling, coupled with weak downstream demand, as early as May Day, recycled lead enterprise maintenance began to increase. The situation of waste battery restrictions after the holiday has not been significantly improved, and the recycled lead smelter still has maintenance plans.

Nickel:

Wang Cong, director of SMM's nickel research department, said that from 2022, the global supply of primary nickel has turned from a shortage to a surplus, and looking ahead to the next few years, SMM expects the supply growth rate to exceed the demand growth rate. As of 2023, Indonesia has become the world's second-largest stainless steel producer, and Indonesia's stainless steel production capacity is expected to exceed 7 million tons in 2027.

In terms of silicon-manganese:

According to SMM, the spot price of silicon-manganese continued to be affected by overseas manganese ore after the holiday, and the sharp rise in silicon-manganese prices was mainly driven by costs. At present, some manufacturers on the supply side are affected by the cost of stopping furnace production, or have a strong reluctance to sell.

Bifocal:

Some coke companies launched the fifth round of coke increases, and the increase was still 100-110 yuan/ton. On the demand side, the current hot metal production of steel mills is still steadily rebounding, and the demand for coke replenishment is still there. On the supply side, although with the improvement of coke enterprises' profits, the operating rate of coke enterprises has increased significantly, and the supply has increased, the current coke inventory of coke enterprises will still be low. The fundamentals of coke still continue to be in the pattern of weak demand, and on the cost side, the price of some coal-blended coal has risen, and the cost support has become stronger, and it is expected that coke prices will continue to run steadily and strongly in the short term.

Macroscopic

On the US dollar:

The U.S. dollar index rebounded today, up 0.23% as of 15:51. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said Tuesday that stalled progress in the fight against inflation, partly due to the strength of the housing market, means the Fed will need to keep borrowing costs unchanged for an "extended period of time" and may even stay on hold for the whole year.

According to CME's Fed Watch tool, the market is currently pricing in a 65% chance of a U.S. rate cut in September.

On May 8, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1016 yuan per US dollar to RMB

Domestic:

The relevant responsible comrades of the National Energy Administration said that the revision of the "Measures for the Supervision of the Electricity Market" will clarify the power market supervision objects for power trading entities, power market operating institutions and power grid enterprises that provide transmission and distribution services, and other power market members, and the power trading entities will increase electricity sales enterprises, energy storage enterprises, virtual power plants, and load aggregators. At the same time, in accordance with the relevant requirements for the independent and standardized operation of power trading institutions, the "power dispatching and trading institutions" will be adjusted to "electricity market operating institutions", including power dispatching institutions and power trading institutions. Increase the supervision of electricity sales enterprises, power users, energy storage enterprises, virtual power plants, and load aggregators; Clarify the supervision of power generation enterprises, power grid enterprises, electricity sales companies, power users, energy storage enterprises, etc., and the signing of relevant contracts with other power trading entities; Supplement the supervision content on the participation of power sales enterprises belonging to or affiliated with power grid enterprises in market transactions and agency power purchases; In accordance with the Basic Rules for Medium and Long-term Electricity Trading, the requirements for market monitoring and risk prevention of electricity market operators are proposed.

In terms of data:

Pay attention to the data such as the monthly rate of wholesale sales in the United States in March on May 8. and, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson's speech on the economy.

Crude oil:

As of 15:51 today, U.S. oil and cloth oil fell by more than 1.00%, with U.S. oil hitting a new low of $77.29 per barrel since March 11, 2024, and cloth oil hitting a new low of $82.08 per barrel since March 13, 2024. Geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, particularly around the Gaza Strip, remains a major uncertainty for the oil market.

Russia has fully compensated for the loss of fuel production due to the shutdown of refineries in April. Rosneft's export-led refinery, the Tuapse refinery, has restarted refining its oil, according to industry sources on Monday. The Tuapse refinery, located in southern Russia, is one of the largest in the region, and was damaged by a fire in January this year. At the end of April this year, the Tuapse refinery completed maintenance work on the refining unit CDU-12, which has a processing capacity of about 250,000 barrels per day. On May 1, the refinery had already processed 20,000 metric tons, equivalent to 146,600 barrels per day. In addition, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak also announced yesterday afternoon that the Ministry of Energy has made a proposal to the government to consider suspending the ban on gasoline exports and is exploring the possibility of lifting the ban. This, coupled with the recent poor implementation rate of crude oil production cuts in Russia and Iraq, has put downward pressure on oil prices.

According to the EIA's short-term energy market analysis report released on Tuesday, the fundamentals of the oil market are inclined to weaken. The report predicts that the global supply of crude oil will grow to 102.76 million barrels per day in the future. At the same time, the EIA has also adjusted global demand for crude oil, which is expected to fall to 102.84 million barrels per day. As a result of this adjustment, the supply shortfall in the oil market in 2024 is expected to be only 80,000 b/d, which is less than the previous forecast.

Judging from the actual inventory situation, crude oil inventories represented by US data have shown a trend of accumulation in recent weeks. According to the inventory report released by API in the early hours of this morning, U.S. crude oil and gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated across the board in the week ended May 3, of which U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 509,000 barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 1.46 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.713 million barrels. The inventory data released by API was very different from expectations, with analysts having expected crude inventories to fall by about 1.1 million barrels, distillate inventories by about 1.1 million barrels and gasoline inventories by about 1.3 million barrels, the survey showed. After the release of the API inventory data that disappointed the market, international oil prices fell sharply overnight, reflecting the sluggish market sentiment.

Pay attention to the release of EIA crude oil inventories for the week from May 8 to May 3, EIA Cushing crude oil inventories in Oklahoma for the week of May 3, and EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventories for the week to May 3.