As we all know, the mainland has been implementing the old reform since 2020. The so-called old renovation is to repair and transform the old community with a house age of more than 20 years on the basis of not demolishing and rebuilding. These include painting interior and exterior walls, replacing old pipes, and installing elevators. According to the data, from 2020 to 2023, 39,000, 53,000, 51,000, and 53,000 will be completed respectively. According to the plan, the remaining unrenovated communities will be basically renovated by 2025.
After entering 2024, the mainland has begun to promote the "three major projects", among which is the transformation of urban villages. The so-called transformation of urban villages refers to the demolition and relocation of some old residential areas in some megacities and megacities. According to the data, there are 7 megacities and 14 megacities in the mainland, including Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Chongqing, etc. In the process of urban village transformation, 40% of the families in the old community may be affected.
The reason why the mainland wants to promote the "urban village transformation" project mainly has two meanings: one is to let the relocated residents take the compensation money or house tickets and go to the surrounding area to buy houses. In this way, it can help developers reduce inventory, return funds, and avoid developers from going bankrupt due to the rupture of the capital chain. The other is that after the demolition residents receive the compensation, they will be able to buy a large number of houses in the surrounding area. In this way, it can play a role in stabilizing local housing prices.
Now the question is, what types of old houses are likely to be included in the scope of demolition? In this regard, we believe that there are four main categories, let's analyze them together:
The first category is old and dilapidated houses
The old house is first tested by an authoritative organization, and if it is identified, the old house has been damaged due to disrepair, and the main structure has been damaged, and it is already a dangerous house and can no longer be inhabited. A house like this is impossible to repair even if it is renovated. Therefore, it is still very likely to be completely demolished.
The second type is prefabricated houses
In the 70s and 80s of the last century, a large number of prefabricated houses were built on the mainland. The disadvantages of prefabricated prefabricated houses are: the life of the house is short (only about 40 years), the sound and heat insulation effect is poor, and the house is prone to water seepage. If this type of house is identified, although the main structure is not damaged, it cannot withstand the impact of natural disasters such as earthquakes and floods. In order to ensure the safety of residents' lives and property, prefabricated houses like this will definitely be completely demolished.
The third category is houses on urban planning land
Many cities now invest heavily in municipal construction every year, such as building subways, widening urban roads, and building theme parks. This requires the expropriation of large amounts of land. And old houses like those on these plots are also likely to face demolition. There are two main compensation schemes for such old houses: 1. Directly take the demolition compensation, or get the house ticket; 3. In-kind resettlement means that the local government resettles the relocated residents in new houses.
The fourth category is an old house located in the heart of the city
Nowadays, every city has a prime location in the city center, and developers often prefer this kind of good location for investing in large shopping malls, office buildings, high-end commercial housing, etc. It is also possible that an old house on a prime plot of land like this, which is favored by developers, will be demolished.
Of course, developers are generally less motivated to acquire land than in the past, with high debt ratios, limited financing, and declining performance. Moreover, the cost of acquiring prime land in mega or mega cities is high, and only large developers have this strong strength.
Four types of properties may be included in the scope of demolition, and 40% of old house families will be affected: on the one hand, housing prices in megacities and megacities are relatively high, and if there is a demolition, residents can get a large amount of compensation for demolition, and their fate will change. On the other hand, whether you take the compensation and then go to the neighborhood to buy a house, or get a house ticket or physical resettlement, the living conditions will definitely be significantly improved, and the comfort experience is much better than the original old house.