To a large extent, the crisis in Gaza reflects the multiple dilemmas of the current Biden policy on Gaza and poses a huge challenge to Biden's re-election. As the 2024 U.S. presidential election heats up, the Biden team's dilemma on this issue may further intensify.
The armed conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip has been going on for more than half a year. Although the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2728 on March 25, which called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, this will not really solve the crisis between Palestine and Israel, because the parties are far from reaching a consensus on a ceasefire and subsequent political arrangements, and Israel is still sharpening its knives and attempting to launch a military assault on Rafah, a city in southern Gaza where Palestinian refugees are concentrated.
To a large extent, the crisis in Gaza reflects the multiple dilemmas of the current Biden policy on Gaza and poses a huge challenge to Biden's re-election. As the 2024 U.S. presidential election heats up, the Biden team's dilemma on this issue may further intensify.
In the author's opinion, these dilemmas are reflected in at least five aspects:
First, the crisis in Gaza highlights the contradiction between the Biden administration's strategy of "great power competition" and its Middle East strategy. After Biden took office, in pursuit of the so-called "great power competition", he tried to carry out strategic retrenchment in the Middle East, including the complete withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in 2021. However, contrary to its wishes, the United States' intention and plan for strategic retrenchment in the Middle East region have not only aroused anxiety and uneasiness among countries in the region, but have also prompted some Middle Eastern countries and non-state actors to adopt more reckless and reckless measures. In fact, this is true of the Gaza conflict, the Red Sea crisis, and the intensification of tensions between Israel and Iran. For the Biden administration, it will be difficult for it to quickly withdraw from these regional crises based on traditional interests and alliances, but the United States cannot do without the cooperation and support of other world powers in these crises. If politicians in Washington continue to cling to the so-called "great power competition", it will only become more difficult to reduce tensions in the Middle East.
Second, the crisis in Gaza has put the Biden administration's "values diplomacy" and "human rights diplomacy" in a difficult position. In his first year in office, Biden convened the so-called "Summit for Democracy" in an attempt to reshape the Western camp with values, and frequently put pressure or sanctions on other countries under the pretext of "human rights". However, by the end of April, more than 34,000 Palestinians had been killed and more than 77,000 injured in Israel's military operations in Gaza, including more than 13,000 children and more than 8,400 women, as well as hundreds of members of UN agencies and humanitarian aid organizations and journalists. Gaza, where more than 2 million Palestinians live, is now in ruins and devastation. In the face of bloody facts and the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, the values, diplomacy and human rights advocated by the Biden administration are more like a farce in the international community.
Third, the Gaza crisis has put the Biden administration in an unprecedented strategic dilemma in the U.S.-Israel relationship. As everyone knows, although Israel is not a NATO ally, its military cooperation with the United States far exceeds that of ordinary NATO allies. After the outbreak of the conflict in Gaza, the Biden administration not only acquiesced in the Netanyahu government's military adventures in Gaza in the name of "self-defense", but also spared no effort to provide it with all kinds of military assistance. However, Netanyahu has turned a deaf ear to the Biden administration's calls for him to rein in military operations in Gaza, and has not hesitated to publicly criticize the Biden administration.
In fact, while Biden has never cut off military aid to Israel, Israel has not been able to gain a new sense of security from the U.S.-Israel relationship. In the aftermath of the Gaza conflict, Israel's leaders need to think about how to respond to the next similar asymmetric attack, how to deal with a new Middle East from which the United States is gradually withdrawing, and how to deal with a Western world where anti-Semitism is on the rise.
Fourth, the Gaza crisis also highlights the Biden administration's dilemma after the Palestinian-Israeli peace process has stalled. The primary issue in resolving the current situation in Gaza lies in the search for a new political consensus and political arrangements, which are a prerequisite for putting an end to the armed conflict and humanitarian catastrophe.
First, the Netanyahu administration's military adventure in Gaza has not provided a viable political vision, leaving the Biden administration passive and bewildered in the face of Israel's military action. Second, the two-state solution supported by the Biden administration has been explicitly opposed by Israel. On the issue of Palestinian-Israeli relations, the Biden administration has neither dared to put pressure on Israel for peace talks, nor has it been able to propose an innovative political solution acceptable to all parties. Even the two-state solution, which is currently supported by the Biden administration, is becoming increasingly difficult to implement in the face of Israeli settlement erosion and the entrenchment of the Jerusalem occupation. Finally, the U.S. policy of unconditional support for Israel at the United Nations has not only caused dissatisfaction among the entire international community, but has also undermined the foundations of the international order that was formed after World War II. Given that Israel is a country established on the basis of the UN General Assembly's partition resolution, the United States' approach is tantamount to quenching its thirst and will only further weaken its own international status and authority.
Fifth, the Gaza crisis has become a new obstacle for Biden to seek re-election. Historically, American Jews have played a pivotal role in presidential elections and have been the main source of votes and campaign funding for the Democratic Party, and support for Israel has been the goal of most American Jewish communities and Jewish out-of-house groups. In the 2020 U.S. presidential election, about 69% of Jews voted for Biden, and the Biden administration's support for Israel will naturally be supported by many Jewish voters and outside groups.
However, the protracted conflict in Gaza may force Biden to continue to pressure Netanyahu, jeopardizing the "special relationship" between the United States and Israel, causing some Jews to withdraw their support for Biden. At the same time, Muslim Americans (nearly 3.5 million people) and left-wing political groups are among the Democratic strongholds, and they are now extremely disappointed and dissatisfied with the Biden administration's Gaza policy. Obviously, the recent mass pro-Palestinian protests on American campuses do not bode well for the Biden team. If the Gaza crisis is not properly resolved for a long time, it will also be the last straw that will crush Biden's re-election.
Source: "China and the United States Focus" WeChat public account
Author: Wang Zhen
Editor: Hu Liang
[Statement: This number is an official public welfare account to serve the decision-making of governments at all levels, enterprises and institutions, and this article is reprinted for the purpose of conveying more information. If there is a source labeling error or other inaccuracies, please contact us. We will correct it in a timely manner. Thank you]