The importance of state visits can often be seen from the level of the pick-up person, as well as the layout of the pick-up site. Judging from the scene of the arrival of the top Chinese plane in Paris, France, it can be said that the French side has arranged extremely high standards for pick-up. In addition to sending the country's Prime Minister Attar to lead a team to greet him warmly, the scene also laid out a long red carpet, and the salute soldiers were lined up on both sides. #军史观察团#
It is worth mentioning that when the top of the Chinese side walked down the gangway, Attar stepped forward and said "hello" in Chinese. All these details show that the French side attaches great importance to this visit by the Chinese side at the highest level. It is foreseeable that as the highlight of the high-level diplomacy in the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and France, this visit will certainly bring a tremendous impetus to the sustained and stable development of bilateral relations.
Moreover, from a practical point of view, the United States is currently instigating its allies to contain China's development in various fields such as politics and military. If the bilateral relations between China and France can become more stable through this visit, it will be exciting news for China-EU relations and the stability of the international order.
As for whether China can achieve some substantive results, we can find the answer from some signals released by the French side before. For example, before the top level of the Chinese side has set off, the European company Airbus has sent a signal of cooperation to China, saying that they will continue to play the role of a bridge between Europe and China. At present, the second production line of Airbus Tianjin is under active construction. Airbus has made a good start, whether it is China and France or China and Europe, it is equivalent to having a good atmosphere for more pragmatic cooperation.
On the Russia-Ukraine issue, the position of the European side has also changed. Before the phone call from senior French official Jean-Pierre Boehne, EU countries such as Germany, Italy, and Hungary affirmed China's importance in mediating the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. In the Sino-French phone call, the two sides coordinated on the Russia-Ukraine issue. This means that Boehner's phone call to the Chinese side is likely to pave the way for further coordination between Russia and Ukraine at the highest level of the Chinese side.
Of course, given that France has always advocated European strategic autonomy, it is not surprising that they have shown independent judgment on issues such as Sino-French relations and Russia-Ukraine. The uncertainty lies in the fact that Europe is not monolithic, and in many cases, some of the ideas pursued by Macron's government have always seemed inadequate.
For example, Macron only called on Europe not to become a vassal of the United States a few days ago, and as soon as the words fell, von der Leyen pointed the finger at Chinese software, threatening that the European Union would not rule out that it would follow the United States and ban TikTok completely. Prior to this, it was reported that Macron wanted to replace von der Leyen, who was "not European enough". But von der Leyen's move shows that the EU politician, widely regarded as an "agent of the United States", does not seem to intend to sit idly by. Von der Leyen's reliance is mostly a deep belief in the influence of the United States on the European Union.
In addition, at the time of China's highest-level visit to Europe, the United States has also made a fuss at China. Recently, the U.S. Treasury Department announced that the U.S. decided to impose sanctions on 20 Chinese companies on the grounds that these Chinese companies were involved in the so-called "aid to Russia". Blinken recently threatened that the United States would take measures to deal with the so-called "aid to Russia" from China. From this point of view, the United States has done what it says, and I am afraid that it will also have the implication of deterring China.
As mentioned above, the Russia-Ukraine issue is inevitably an unavoidable issue for China's top level to go to Europe this time, and the United States' black hand against Chinese companies at this time is tantamount to warning China that it can only choose between the West and Russia. This point was also made clear by Blinken as early as the recent G7 foreign ministers' meeting. To put it simply, the United States is likely to use its influence over the EU to spoil the atmosphere of China's highest-level visit to Europe.
Therefore, although the French side has shown that it attaches great importance to China and expressed its willingness to maintain friendly relations with China, the key to whether China can achieve some substantive results lies in whether France, as a European leader, can adhere to an independent China policy based on the overall situation of China-France and China-EU relations. If France is influenced by the United States, whether it is to cooperate with some of the United States' strategies to contain China, or to use the United States as a bargaining chip to bargain with China, it will not be conducive to the consolidation of bilateral relations between China and France against the background of the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations.
Judging from the itinerary, Macron has invited von der Leyen to Paris to hold trilateral talks with the Chinese side. It cannot be ruled out that such an arrangement is also France's desire to send a tough signal to the United States. It can be said that the outcome of this meeting is likely to determine how much the Chinese side can achieve from this trip to Europe.
In general, the top Chinese side will also travel to Serbia and Hungary after visiting France. If France fails to take the lead, in addition to its own status and voice in the EU, China will probably focus more on the other two countries that are more friendly to China.