The China Investor Summit of Warren Buffett's Shareholders' Meeting, sponsored by China Industrial Securities Global Fund, Finance Associated Press and Tencent News, was successfully held. Dong Chengfei, Partner and Chief Research Officer of Ruijun Asset Management, Wu Shengtao, CEO of Licheng Assets, Hu Youwen, Vice President and Dean of Research Institute of Minsheng Securities, and Zhu Kefu, Researcher of Industrial Securities Global Fund, attended the discussion of "Roundtable 2 - New Quality Productivity, Technological Imagination and Investment Opportunities". The following is a transcript of the roundtable discussion:
Dong Chengfei
Partner and Chief Research Officer of Ruijun Asset Management
Wu Shengtao
Chief Executive Officer of Licheng Assets
Hu Youwen
Vice President of Minsheng Securities and Dean of the Research Institute
Zhukov
Researcher of China Industrial Securities Global Fund
Zhukov: In the last session, several investment bigwigs discussed shareholder returns and macro issues, and this one mainly focused on the direction of scientific and technological innovation. I am Zhu Kev, a researcher at the Industrial Securities Global Fund, and I am very fortunate to have this opportunity to ask some questions from all the bigwigs present.
Last year, I remember that Xie Zhiyu also mentioned a statement in this field, the speed of progress in the capital market is faster than we imagined, and many of the issues we are discussing at present, many hot topics may have been unheard of ten years ago. Especially this year, the term new quality productivity is relatively popular, and today we will mainly do some discussions around this word.
The market will always chase new forces of economic momentum
Zhukov: First of all, I would like to ask Mr. Dong, I read some of your previous speeches, and there is a sentence in them that is impressive, "The market will always chase new forces of economic momentum". The first question is, we have seen several times in the past history the process of chasing new market momentum, and the second question is, at this point in time, how do we understand the new forces that drive the economy forward?
Dong Chengfei: Thank you, we have always said that the stock market is a barometer of the economy, but in fact, I understand that the stock market is a reflection of the economy in the virtual market. In fact, the stock market must reflect some of the more trendy industries or characteristics of a country's economy at a specific stage of development, whether it is in China or in the United States. This is also very characteristic in A-shares, and what impresses me the most is that from 2013 to 2015 was the time of rapid development of the domestic mobile Internet. Looking back, mobile Internet companies are mainly in Hong Kong stocks, not in A-shares, but even so, we still have a very vigorous mobile Internet company boom in A-shares. In fact, the AI that has been popular in the past two years also originated on the other side of the ocean, but in fact, there will be corresponding sectors in A-shares, so this is a natural phenomenon.
In addition, A-shares sometimes react relatively rationally to new momentum and new forces, and sometimes they seem less rational, sometimes they react quickly, sometimes they don't react so quickly, and that's it. Standing at this point in time, I personally understand that the new power may be new technologies in some industries, or new business models in society, and the next generation may drive new engines and new growth points of the economy.
Standing at this point in time, in the past 20 years, from our own experience, we have experienced a complete round of economic growth paradigm driven by real estate and infrastructure. Looking back at this point in time, I feel that the paradigm of real estate and infrastructure in the past has basically come to an end. In the future, the development of the whole society will definitely be driven by new kinetic energy and new forces. My own energy is also focused on these aspects to find new economic momentum in the future society, and I will answer these first.
Zhukov: Thank you, I probably understand, you understand a little more than I do. Originally, I thought that you would be referring to all kinds of new technologies, but in fact, it sounds like the engine of the economy is gradually shifting from real estate to new directions, and we need to spend time researching these things.
The next question, let me ask Mr. Wu, you have also mentioned that technology will lead the innovation of the entire economy in the future, but we know that in fact, for new technology, it is more difficult to identify it, invest in it, and chase it. In particular, there are some technologies that are small technologies, and some technologies that are disruptive and have potential, and I would like to ask you how do we identify and evaluate these technologies? What technologies do you see?
Wu Shengtao: Thank you, this question is very difficult, and I can't answer it as a fund manager with a background in finance and economics. But I'm trying to share with you how I see this from my perspective as a fund manager. First of all, I think fund managers will pay attention to the most advanced frontiers of technology in the world, what is the United States doing at the moment, and I will tell you why this is very important.
Two or three months ago, one of my classmates came back from a trip to the United States for about half a year, and I had dinner and talked with him, and he gave me an example. He said that the current Bay Area is the same as Shenzhen ten years ago, because there are a large number of Chinese, a large number of various investment opportunities and a large number of PPT circulating in the table, and everyone is discussing this opportunity. This shows that in fact, the forefront of the entire technology may still be in these fields in the United States. We've seen a very positive response from the stock market to these companies at the cutting edge.
Second, I think we may really want to see the huge impact that these technologies will have on us after they come out, and they must have subversive changes in our production and lifestyle. From the past mobile Internet cases, it can be seen that when you first connect to WeChat, you go to Tencent, when you see that the friends around you use Meituan, you vote for Meituan, and when you see that all the people around you are watching videos, you go to watch Kuaishou, Douyin and other problems. Recently, everyone said that when I ask questions, I don't ask researchers anymore, and when I ask Kimi's conclusions, I have already seen that these new technologies have changed our production and lifestyle.
Thirdly, as far as I'm concerned, I'll talk to more people who are younger and willing to pay attention to new technologies. I also use a case to share with you, about the case of Kimi, is also a fund manager who is not young, he told us about half a year ago, he said that you must use Kimi, you must use bean bags, at that time ChatGPT was just in the stage of popularity, but after half a year, you found that these companies have been valued at tens of billions of yuan. In the middle of the investment process, we are facing such a huge wave of technology, in fact, everyone can see that artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, including autonomous driving, a series of fields are facing huge opportunities. There is another one that we need to pay attention to, the iteration of these technologies themselves, you can also see that when the Internet first came out, everyone may only pay the most attention to these portals, and it turned out that after ten years, the era of mobile Internet has undergone earth-shaking changes, in fact, we have also faced some cases in the middle of the investment process.
I remember when I first became a fund manager, I once bought a company that made ATMs, which should be a relatively advanced device because it can replace people. And this company is indeed doing very well, Mr. Hu should have the impression that at that time, the company's profit of tens of millions of dollars achieved a net profit of about 10 billion, that is, seven or eight years. From the point of view of the company's qualifications, it is a very good state. But we found that when the mobile Internet wave came, you were used to paying with your mobile phone, and no matter how good the company was, you should abandon it.
In fact, it is very difficult to discover technology, but we feel that having a forward-looking vision, a learning mentality, and then discovering more from the changes in the surrounding life and production methods, maybe the opportunities that may be brought to you in the middle are huge.
Zhukov: Thank you, Mr. Wu, for telling us three impressive stories, let me summarize, in fact, first, we may still need to identify the direction of the leading science and technology, and second, we must also continue to do research and iteration in this direction. Kimi's story also stood out to me because I also felt that the fund managers around us are becoming more and more dependent on Kimi and not on us researchers. We ourselves have to think about the direction of transformation and study some new technologies.
In fact, we see that in the past ten years, the software ecology of the United States has clearly gone through the PC, to the mobile Internet, to the cloud era, there is a wave of Web3 in the middle, and then to the era of AI. At each stage of the technology, very productive tools emerge and eventually cash in on market capitalization and profits, on which investors make a lot of returns. But it seems that we see that there is indeed a process of some fracture in A-share investment, as an expert in this area, can you tell us what kind of technical trends you see at such a point in time?
Hu Youwen: Thank you, Mr. Dong and Mr. Wu both mentioned AI, there is no doubt that from our experience in studying computers for so many years, we think that artificial intelligence is the next era, and we boldly predict that it is not only the biggest technological wave in the next era, but also the largest wave of scientific and technological revolution in human history.
Six years ago, when AlphaGo, the machine that played Go became so popular, we had a feeling, if one day the machine completely replaced people, not only to replace physical work, but even to replace some mental work, what would the world be like? Because on that day you may not be able to imagine any great progress in technology, because that day everything we can do was replaced by machines, and I think it is still very early to reach this distant goal.
Someone on our team just came back from a trip to Silicon Valley last month, and we did see a lot of prototypes in Silicon Valley. For example, the SORA model caused a sensation when it was launched, but it was silent later, in fact, there are two reasons, the first is that it is too expensive, its reasoning cost is too expensive, and it is an exponential increase compared to the cost of words, so it cannot be consumed now. The second question is, I never imagined that this technology has risen to the level of competing with TikTok, which is so influential among young people that it can even influence the outcome of the US election. In the same way, the emergence of SORA has also had a similar effect, so when OpenAI does such a thing, they are also cautious, because such a tool cannot be used casually, once it is used and related to politics, the subsequent events are uncontrollable, this is a case.
In addition, Tesla, like Tesla, has just fully launched its FSD autonomous driving to the market, and plans to release a truly self-driving taxi in August, and then its monthly fee has also been reduced from 199 to 99, the intention is very obvious, hoping to sweep the entire United States in a short period of time. Whether it is on the user side or on the To B side (taxi side), seize market share as soon as possible, and those who have really used FSD will find that at least in the United States, where they are completely familiar with the road conditions, it is indeed very shocking. It can completely replace the driver, from one point to another, regardless of the road conditions, regardless of the environment, weather, etc., it is almost barrier-free traffic.
So from these most vivid cases, we do feel the rapid development of AI, so Kofu mentioned that in the past so many years, we have seen many companies continue to progress and succeed in every wave of technology, and the benchmark of this round is undoubtedly NVIDIA, which is the global leader. In fact, Nvidia's stock price has also experienced some fluctuations during this time, because the market has some doubts about some of its expectations, including whether its high performance can be sustained. But in the long run, from the future development of AI, especially the example of SORA that I just mentioned, if one day we convert from Kimi to SORA, it is so expensive, and we need to invest exponential computing power to meet its needs, I think the space is still very early, or we are still far from being completely replaced by machines.
Zhukov: Thank you, I just mentioned two good examples, one is AI and the other is Tesla's FSD, which also corresponds to the direction of the two waves of scientific and technological innovation, one is information technology and the other is energy technology.
Explain the two main lines of new kinetic energy in detail
Zhukov: Next question, I would like to ask Mr. Wu. TMT and emerging manufacturing that you mentioned before are the areas you focus on, if you are divided into these two fields, one is high-end manufacturing, and the other is the information field of TMT. These two are big technical main lines, there will be a lot of branch lines out of them, what do you think these two main lines will you focus on, and it is possible to take over real estate, and it is possible to become a new driving force for China's economy?
Wu Shengtao: I think these two classifications may be from my perspective, and from my past experience, the number and level of large companies that may arise in the field of information will be more. Because manufacturing in these fields is really going to be, it should be said that trillions of such levels do not seem to have been carried so far.
But there may be some drastic changes over time, and the core is that the convergence between these technologies is increasing. Maybe when Hu mentioned this problem just now, we can see that the current change is no longer information processing, and it may involve deep learning in the future, and all kinds of computing power will finally have to make manual decisions, such as some decision-making mechanisms. I think there may be a certain gap between China and the United States in terms of the current technological environment. But I think China has advantages in some specific applications, in fact, I have been talking about China's advantages in industrial applications, including some specific manufacturing fields. We can see that in the course of the past 20 years, every time it comes to industry application, China has produced giant companies.
In addition, in the energy field, I think there is also the possibility of advanced manufacturing going overseas. When Mr. Yan mentioned this issue just now, we have now shown a state of devastation in the field of new energy, whether it is wind power, new energy vehicles, or batteries, which will definitely lead China's economy to become a new growth engine in the current lack of new momentum. But I think maybe the market doesn't necessarily give these companies a lot of room for imagination. Because after all, it is also fast to iterate, and it may face the possibility of being iterated by others. So I'm still relatively more optimistic about the previous areas.
Zhukov: Thank you, China is currently very advantageous in the field, including the lithium battery equipment mentioned by the housewarming, including the new energy vehicles to go overseas, we need to make up for this shortcoming, chasing the new wave of information technology innovation.
This is facing a problem, I would like to ask Mr. Dong, we know that in fact, China is currently facing a lot of sanctions and pressure to be stuck in the semiconductor industry. In fact, we have seen that the Philadelphia semiconductor index in the United States has risen a lot, and it has reacted violently in the United States, but we have not seen this trend in China.
Dong Chengfei: It's true, the Philadelphia semiconductor index in the United States has hit a new high, but our semiconductor index is still tepid. Realistically speaking, it is because of the sudden emergence of such a new technology under the big environment, and because of the problems of international relations, I think that excellent large companies must have this kind of design ability, but now the design and manufacturing process is facing a big problem.
In fact, I am also thinking, I put forward a concept on one occasion, and semiconductors may benefit from the concept of AI++ in the end, which is purely my own personal logical deduction. Because my understanding is this, I think that after artificial intelligence, AI is equivalent to the human brain, and we are now going to companies including semiconductors and software to investigate and ask them how AI is used? One of the feelings is that AI is still at the level of production tools, and the significance is to improve the internal efficiency of enterprises, and slowly play a role.
But in fact, my logical reasoning is this, if the light has a brain, and the brain is very strong, this brain naturally wants to control the hand or something, because we always think that the lamp is intelligent, and our curtains are intelligent. Including now, there are even some smart puppy toys, which are already quite smart, but they are not popularized in the C-side and IOT. But I think in the end it must be an inevitability, because you follow the deduction of industrial logic, there are two inferences in this, and the confusion here is how long is the gap in between? So we are also paying close attention to whether it will appear? Because hardware consumer goods are on the smartphone, the whole thing has fallen into a bottleneck, and there is no new idea. Will everyone change everything after adding AI elements, or let everyone have new and refreshing things come out, arousing everyone's desire to buy?
Second, because of various reasons, it will be difficult for us to manufacture advanced chips, but for some semiconductor fields where IOT is relatively not so high, I think Chinese companies have certain advantages, if it really comes to that time, I think it is like the housewarming always mentioned, the entire semiconductor industry is now at a low point, if the industry itself is booming and superimposed after the new application, I believe that the opportunity in the middle will be relatively large. I'm quietly watching and waiting, that's the situation, thank you.
Zhukov: That's very good, I'll summarize it like this, AI++, a + is the size of the gap, and we have to pay close attention to it. The other is that in the process of moving forward with the technology backbone, it will grow many branches like a tree, and these branches are very advantageous in China's industry in many aspects, including the design of IOT mentioned by Dong Zong, including all aspects, in fact, many companies are worthy of our attention. Just now Mr. Dong talked about the relationship between AI and semiconductors, in fact, I also want to ask Mr. Hu, you mentioned a point of view before. This round may be different from the previous mobile Internet, this round is more like software innovation in front, leading the emergence of an inflection point in hardware innovation. Before, it may have been like mobile phones came out to have mobile Internet, I don't know how to understand the changes in the industry?
Hu Youwen: Actually, Dong Zong's analogy just now is very vivid, and now we compare the large model to the 3G network and smart phones at that time, which is the infrastructure of the next AI era. Of course, there is another link before this infrastructure, which is semiconductors and chips. With semiconductors and chips, we can train large models. Why is it said that it is from soft to hard, and the previous one is from hard to soft. In fact, the context of the last era is very clear, after the iPhone came out in 2008, to 2011, 3G, 4G network began to be built, and in 2013 we saw mobile games, video and later Internet finance, etc., including WeChat payment, Alipay and so on overwhelming applications. Its whole context is from a mobile phone, with the support of the network behind it, there are all kinds of tricks on the mobile phone, and the appearance of various APPs, the context is very clear.
Today, we have reached the stage of 2010 and 2011 at most. Because now, not to mention China's chips and semiconductors are severely restricted. We see that in the United States, when chips are not restricted, the most important infrastructure capabilities of large models are far from reaching the extent that the market imagines. Maybe GPT-5 or GPT-6 will reach this level in the near future, but the gap time in between is uncertain.
If one day the infrastructure is complete, its artificial intelligence level will go to a higher level, what we can see is that after having a brain, it will control hands, control cars, control robots and other hardware terminals in the IOT era will really come.
We watched a movie "If You Are Honest Do Not Disturb 3" before, there are actually a lot of funny actions in it, quite full of technological elements, I think this era will definitely come, but it is true that at present, there is still a year or two if the middle is fast, and there is a gap of three or five years if it is slow.
Investments in science and technology for new productivity
Zhukov: We have just discussed so much about the definition of new quality productivity and what its direction is, what are the scientific and technological directions that the whole market is concerned about at present, and we would like to discuss how to invest in the face of such a wave of technology. The first question, I would like to ask Mr. Wu, just now we talked about a lot of information technology things, you also talked about the dual carbon in the past few years, you have also bought some companies in this area, which is also the area you focus on, can you talk about this understanding of investment opportunities?
Wu Shengtao: Okay, on the question of carbon peaking, first of all, why do we do this, or is it related to the current international environment. It can be said that in many fields, we have been restricted and excluded, but the field of dual carbon should not be, and it is more likely that a consensus will be reached. So we've been emphasizing this as well.
Second, the scale of the industry in this field is very large, because in order to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the space for new energy development is far from the current state of several times, and may be dozens of times the state. That is to say, the market value in this field is very large, and the scale of the industry is very large.
The third point is our competitive advantage. In the past four or five years, whether it is wind power, photovoltaic or new energy vehicles, we should be relatively leading in technology, and the speed of iteration is faster than that of the international community. It is also because we are rarely constrained by the international community. In this context, if we want to further develop carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, it means that Chinese enterprises face greater opportunities.
In such a context, China is facing the transformation of the momentum of the transformation of the old and new economies, and the lack of new industries, I believe that all areas of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality have the potential to become very important driving forces to lead the next round of China's economic growth. So I think there is still something to focus on in this area.
Zhukov: Let me ask a question, in the field of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, you just mentioned that we seem to be ahead of the world in various subdivisions, including wind power, lithium battery equipment, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics. I'd like to ask you which of these areas you think we have stronger strengths or that you are more concerned about. In the past few years, we have known that overcapacity is a big problem, in fact, at this point we have seen a lot of companies, do you think there is still a process of finding out, or maybe we have seen some companies in this area have some signs of running out?
Wu Shengtao: In fact, from the perspective of investment, we have reduced the allocation in this area in 2022, and the main reason is because of the excessive supply of production capacity. The supply of capacity in any field is too large, and the problem is that the uncertainty of the iteration of new technologies is also increasing. At that time, everyone was looking at Popper's iteration into the perovskite field, and in the middle of the process, there would be some possibilities for disruptive technologies. From an investment point of view, I think the past two or three years have also endured the possibility of a relatively large round of decline. But I think it's okay, in the end, there will be some new technologies in these fields, and after they come out, they will re-roll into the huge market space in this field, and they will have some unique competitive advantages, which also need to be seen while walking. At this stage, I don't have a very clear conclusion.
Zhukov: Thank you, Mr. Wu, the next question is Mr. Hu, in fact, you just compared the big bull market of TMT led by the iPhone at that time, and we are very impressed, that is, this period from 2013 to 2015. Compared with this paragraph, in fact, we saw a big market outbreak last year, but this wave has been much smaller so far this year. If we refer to the last round of Internet market, how does this round of TMT industry view the position it has been in so far, and what direction and valuation level should it focus on now?
Hu Youwen: Thank you. This is indeed the most asked question from investors this year, that is, in the first half of last year, it took about half a year to see the entire AI sector surging. In fact, if we look back at the market from 2013 to 2015, it is the round of mobile Internet market. Before that, there were two phases, one was from 2010 to 2011, and the best performance in the whole market was the Apple industry chain.
However, from 2010 to 2012, except for the occasional performance of Apple's industrial chain, the overall TMT sector was silent, and its performance was very ordinary relative to the market. Now looking back on its reasons are very reasonable, when the Apple mobile phone just came out, when the network was not complete, everyone was thinking about what this mobile phone was doing, it was very dazzling, the touch screen was very easy to use, but what kind of change could it bring, everyone watched while walking, until one day there was a mobile game, a video, a payment, and so on. Everyone found that this mobile phone is subverting an era, so from 2013 to 2015, the results of the middle two years can be compared to the present, last year we actually gave AI very high expectations, but maybe we all underestimated the impact of the first US embargo on China. China is now severely limited in computing power, resulting in the progress of Chinese models seriously lagging behind that of the United States.
But even if we look at the United States, in fact, the performance of the entire market AI sector in the United States has been relatively backward since the Spring Festival this year. In fact, the reason behind it is that when the American model is making rapid progress and is not limited by any limitation of computing power, it has not come out of a native application like the mobile game video back then, and even the explosive application we can expect is also absent.
In China, Kimi was mentioned by several leaders just now, and I think it's really good, including me who rely on it now, and I read the report or something. But in the U.S., there are products like Kimi, but what we are looking forward to may be whether it can bring me reading help from scratch in addition to the dialogue like Kimi, and whether it can produce a change of the times from scratch, and such a thing has not appeared. If we make a prediction, I think it may be 2025 at the earliest, if GPT-5 is launched at the end of this year or 2025, whether this round of revolution led by it will bring, I think it depends on whether GPT-5, or even GPT-6's ability to improve will produce such applications. But the next era is analogous from 2013 to 2015, and it must be a big round of market led by our level of application.
Zhukov: Thank you, I would like to ask Mr. Dong for the last question, we are mainly discussing the new momentum of China's innovation in this session. In fact, you have mentioned before that after reviewing each round of the market, we are faced with the problem of switching between core assets and small-cap stocks, but we can also look at this problem together. We see that the most distant star stocks in the market so far this year have been upstream resource stocks, and so far technological innovation has always been in front of large companies, and small companies seem to have come out of some, but not many, so we would like to ask you if you think the opportunity for small-cap stocks is there now, and if so, in what aspects?
Dong Chengfei: Thank you, in fact, I want to add the word "quality" in front of small-cap stocks, because the scope of small-cap stocks is too big, 90% of small-cap stocks are not big, and maybe only 10% of small-cap stocks can grow. This point of view was put forward in a rather wild scenario in the annual wisdom at the end of last year, and after our review and the end of the core asset market in China and the United States, it is basically the starting point of the small-cap stock market, so I still insist on this judgment until now, not to say how it has performed this year, or whatever. I think it's a beginning, why do you think so? First, it has the background of the back economy, and back to the first question just now, I believe that the stock market is a reflection of the economy, and our traditional cycle is nearing the end, and we need to have new momentum and new quality productivity. These new things are the process of growing from small to large, from nothing to something, so when they are naturally displayed in front of you, they are not large-cap stocks. I think this view is supported by the underlying economic background.
Second, we are reviewing the past five years of A-shares, and my view has always been that if we started to remarket in 2016, I think the mainstream of the market is large-cap stocks. It's just that in the first half of the core asset, we divided it into large-cap growth stocks, and after the setback of large-cap growth stocks, we superimposed macro uncertainties, and everyone shrank into large-cap value stocks. That's why I've always said that an index is the CSI 500 Index, taking the CSI 500 Index as an example, in fact, from 2013 to 2015, the CSI 500 Index was the strongest. At that time, it was trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 80 times, 90 times, to 100 times. But in fact, the index has been in a phase of contraction since then. The CSI 500 index has never been mentioned in the past five years, and it is a comparative index. So when I first came, I took a look at its valuation level, the PE valuation of TTM in the early 20s, and the dividend data also has two points, the CSI 300 is 12 times, 13 times the PE, and the dividend income is 3 points, you can say that this index is more expensive than the CSI 300, but I have always been thinking about this problem, whether we do investment whether it is value and growth, it is nothing more than two intermediate trade-offs, one is certainty, and the other is possibility. Now it is true that large-cap stocks are very certain, and in the current environment, everyone says give me 2%, not too much. So people don't look at the future, but in fact, things that are very certain will be less likely. I think that in the past, the interpretation of China A-shares gave certainty a sufficient premium, and everyone actually ignored the possibility. When we do stocks, we must be optimistic from the bottom of our hearts, and we must think that there is a business miracle. This is my second starting point.
The third point of departure, I may also have a point of view. Everyone says that the risk-free income has been declining now, so high dividends and high dividends are the big hits in the market, and everyone thinks that a dividend yield of three points and five points is commendable. But actually, I think this thing is a little bit bigger, in fact, the decline in risk-free data is not only for high-dividend stocks, but also for growth stocks. Because in fact, to put it bluntly, your opportunity cost is also reduced. Looking at the dividend yield of two points of the CSI 500 Index now, it is actually acceptable under the current background. Assuming good growth, it may bring you better returns. So I think in such a big context, the market has been emphasizing the benefits of high dividends. But I think in such a big context, really good quality growth stocks have to enjoy a premium. So I think the decline in risk-free returns will also bring a premium to growth stocks, which was the main starting point for our whole judgment last year, thank you.
Zhukov: Thank you, this is the end of the roundtable.
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