The marginal rebound of risk appetite is a high probability event
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During the May Day holiday, overseas macro events supported a marginal rebound in global risk appetite. The U.S. April non-farm payrolls were lower than expected, the PMI fell back to the boom and bust line, and the Federal Reserve's May meeting was dovish. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has risen, triggering a sharp rise in peripheral stock markets across the board. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed higher for the ninth consecutive trading day, the longest winning streak since 2018. During the holiday season, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index surged more than 4%, the Hang Seng Tech Index surged more than 7%, the highest level since the end of November 2023, and the US-listed China Golden Dragon Index surged more than 6%. The renminbi has appreciated sharply, and the good start of A-shares is a high probability event.
Domestically, the recovery of production activities slowed down in April, and the manufacturing PMI index fell marginally, but it was still in the expansion range. According to the incremental policy signal released by the Politburo meeting in April, the fiscal policy is expected to accelerate, the total volume and reform policy are expected to enter a period of force, and the real estate will take a two-pronged approach to digesting the stock and optimizing the incremental policy. In addition, the agenda of the Third Central Committee has been determined, and the previous Third Plenary Sessions have put forward reform tasks that are related to the overall situation and have far-reaching impact, among which the even-numbered Third Plenary Sessions have all involved comprehensive reforms, and the relevant expectations are expected to continue to ferment.
In terms of layout, in the context of economic recovery and significant inflow of foreign capital, China's assets are expected to continue to recover. At present, the annual report is over, and theme stocks may welcome active opportunities. Judging from the first quarterly report, the performance of A-shares is still bottoming out, and the net profit of all A-shares in Q1 2024 will be -4.7% year-on-year, negative growth for 4 consecutive quarters, down 2 percentage points from Q4 in 2023. On the board, the main board is still under pressure, but the performance of the ChiNext and the Science and Technology Innovation Board has improved, and the profit growth rate in Q1 of 2024 has increased by more than 10 percentage points compared with Q4 of 2023. In terms of operation, you can pay attention to Hang Seng Technology ETF (159740), ChiNext ETF (159915) and STAR Market 50 ETF (688080).
NVIDIA's latest super AI server will be put into production in the second half of the year These two companies cut into overseas computing power high-speed connector suppliers
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According to media reports, Nvidia's latest super AI server DGXGB200 will start mass production in the second half of this year, and the output is expected to reach up to 40,000 units in 2025, which is expected to set off the next wave of industry gold rush.
At present, large language models continue to be trained around the world, and the demand for AI servers and chips continues to grow. The GB200 is the next generation of GPUs launched by NVIDIA and is expected to be a major driving force for the high-end GPU product line. The huge advancements in the architecture of DGXGB200AI servers, coupled with huge efficiency numbers, are likely to lead to greater adoption compared to the Hopper series. The agency pointed out that GB200 used high-speed copper cable scheme for the first time, and the current value of a single NVL72 copper cable is about 500,000, and the overall mass production of NVIDIA GB200 is expected to drive the demand for high-speed connectors. LightCounting noted that the high-speed copper market will continue to expand at a staggering compound annual growth rate of 25% over the five-year period from 2023 to 2027. Some domestic manufacturers have entered overseas high-speed IO connector suppliers in the foundry model, directly benefiting from the growth of overseas demand for AI computing power.
$Dingtong Technology(SH688668)$ Communication connector products are mainly used in servers, data centers, etc., and have been deeply cooperating with core customers such as Amphenol and Molex for decades.
$Huafeng Technology Co., Ltd. (sh688629)$ has developed a 224G high-speed backplane connector, while the 112G/224G high-speed line module can be used in high-end servers, switches, supercomputers and other fields, and has production capacity and is expanding production capacity to meet the needs of large customers for AI servers, which is expected to become a strong growth point.
【Investment Focus】
> the shutdown of MDI devices of major North American factories Disrupts or pulls the MDI boom
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According to industry website reports, on April 28, Covestro's 330,000 tons/year MDI unit in Baytown, Texas, North America, was determined to stop production. Previously, BASF Gaisma in North America suffered a force majeure shutdown of 400,000 tons/year, and the total production capacity of the two companies was 730,000 tons/year, accounting for nearly half of the North American MDI production capacity. According to Baichuan information, the MDI mother liquor plant with a production capacity of 250,000 tons/year in a factory in Shanghai is scheduled to start shutdown and maintenance in mid-May, and it is expected to last about 30 days.
In late March, force majeure occurred due to the supply of MDI products in Hungary, which boosted export demand. According to customs data, China's aggregate MDI exports to Europe in March were 37,000 tons, +345.1% month-on-month in February and +62.2% month-on-month in January. According to Baichuan and Zhuochuang information data, the weekly inventory of domestic aggregate MDI enterprises last week was 79,000 tons, at the 2.4% quantile since 2019, and the domestic refrigerator and freezer output from January to February was 18.98 million units, a year-on-year increase of +24%. There is a certain correlation between the global production capacity of force majeure devices and the price change of MDI in the next month. According to Baichuan Yingfu, in September 2021, the global MDI production capacity of 820,000 tons/year encountered force majeure, and the average price of domestic MDI in October 2021 increased by 7.3% year-on-year. Analysts believe that at present, MDI is in the post-holiday replenishment period, the inventory is at the historical pivot level, and the downstream demand is gradually entering the Spring Festival peak season, and the price is expected to be repaired. In A-shares, you can pay attention to $Wanhua Chemical (SH600309)$, $Chlor-alkali Chemical (SH600618)$, etc.
【Exclusive Reference】
> Accelink: 1.6T optical modules will be officially commercialized in the second half of the year at the earliest
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$Accelink(sz002281)$ said on the interactive platform that the company's 800G optical module has achieved mass production, 1.6T optical module belongs to the next generation of products, and is expected to be officially commercialized in the second half of 2024 at the earliest, 1.6T optical module is currently in the sample verification stage, driven by AI, it is expected that high-speed optical module shipments are expected to achieve substantial growth this year, and the sales of high-end optical module products are expected to have a positive impact on the company's performance. At present, the company has quantum communication-related products, mainly through its subsidiary Guoxun to carry out quantum key communication, integrated optical chips and optical devices required for quantum measurement systems, and related products have been mass-produced.
> Shenling Environment: The growth rate of liquid-cooled orders has increased significantly
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$Shenling Environment (SZ301018)$ said in an institutional survey that the rapid growth trend of the market demand for liquid cooling products in data centers is clear, and the market share will continue to rise in the future, and the company's liquid cooling order growth rate in the first quarter has also increased significantly. The reasons for the growth rate are mainly focused on the expected rapid growth of the shipment scale of various liquid-cooled servers mainly Ascend in 2024, which will lead to the increase of liquid-cooled products, and the acceleration of the construction of liquid-cooled data center projects, with many projects entering delivery and acceptance in 2024. At this stage, the liquid cooling of the data center is still in its infancy, and the customer pays more attention to the supplier's project experience, reliability and technical docking ability for liquid cooling.
【Financial News】
> Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee: It is necessary to develop new productive forces in accordance with local conditions, actively develop venture capital, and expand patient capital.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) > issued guidelines for companies listed on the National Equities Exchange and Quotations to apply for issuance and listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange to further optimize the guidance and supervision of the Beijing Stock Exchange.
> China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) revised the Guidelines for the Evaluation of Scientific and Technological Innovation Attributes (Trial), which will be implemented from the date of promulgation.
> National Development and Reform Commission: Promote the development and growth of key enterprises of new energy vehicles, and promote the optimization and reorganization of new energy vehicle enterprises.
> Ministry of Natural Resources issued new regulations: cities with a de-commercialization period of more than 36 months will suspend the transfer of new land.
> synthetic biology innovation team of Jiangnan University: Using synthetic biology technology, the cost of hyaluronic acid has been reduced to several hundred yuan per kilogram.
> Shanghai launched the "trade-in" activity of commercial housing, with more than 20 real estate companies and nearly 10 intermediaries participating in the first batch.
【Announcement Gold Rush】
>$ Tongguang Cable (SZ300265)$: The subsidiary pre-won the bid for 165 million yuan of State Grid-related procurement projects, accounting for about 7.02% of the total audited operating income in 2023.
>$Wanxiang Qianchao (SZ000559)$: intends to purchase 100% of the shares of WAC held by Wanxiang USA.
>$ Cialis (SH601127)$: The sales of new energy vehicles in April increased by 302.89% year-on-year.
>$Kyodo Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (SZ300966)$: A wholly-owned subsidiary obtained the CNAS laboratory accreditation certificate.
>$Vast Depth (SH688292)$: Signed a contract of 108 million yuan with China Mobile Communications Group Co., Ltd.
>$Narui Radar (SH688522)$: Won the bid for the weather radar equipment procurement project of Guangdong Yuecai Financial Leasing Co., Ltd.
>$Wanfu Biotech (SZ300482)$: The OTC product of respiratory triple home self-test has been authorized by the US FDA EUA.
【Dragon and Tiger Stands】
> funds flowed into synthetic biology, household appliances and other sectors
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Last Tuesday, the market fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, and the GEM index led the decline. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26% to 3,104.82 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.90% to 9,587.12 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.55% to 1,858.39 points. The total turnover of the two cities was 1,030.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 180.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day. On the disk, synthetic biology, household appliances, dyes, traditional Chinese medicine and other sectors were among the top gainers, while low-altitude economy, nuclear pollution prevention and control, automobiles, military and other sectors were among the top decliners.
The data of the after-hours Dragon and Tiger list shows that:
$Koyo Co., Ltd. (SZ002708)$ was purchased by Power Tour, with a total net purchase amount of 131 million yuan;
$Guosheng Financial Holding (SZ002670)$ was bought by Power Tour, with a total net purchase of 88.4011 million yuan;
$ Wang Zi New Materials (SZ002735)$ was bought by one main buyer, with a total net purchase of 74.1729 million yuan;
$Rongsheng Development (SZ002146)$ was bought by Power Tour, with a total net purchase amount of 69.6517 million yuan;
$Zhenshitong (SZ002771)$ was bought by institutional funds, with a total net purchase of 54.2196 million yuan.