What are the main lines of investment? The top ten brokerage strategies are coming

Finance Associated Press

2024-05-05 19:15 Published on the official account of Cailianshe under Shanghai Poster Industry Group

Finance Associated Press, May 5 (edited by Ruoyu) The latest strategic views of the top ten brokerages have been released, as follows:

CITIC Securities: Three-legged support for the May market

Entering May, with the end of the earnings season, the Politburo meeting set the tone, the US dollar interest rate cut is expected to be clear, the reform expectation begins to strengthen, the global capital has a strong willingness to allocate Chinese assets, the market risk appetite has increased significantly, and the market game will tend to ease.

The specific allocation suggestions focus on three aspects: (1) In terms of excellent growth, we will focus on manufacturing leaders such as construction machinery, home appliances, basic chemicals, and consumer electronics, pharmaceuticals that have bottomed out and stabilized the industrial cycle, and consumer and Internet leaders in Hong Kong stocks. (2) In terms of active themes, themes such as low-altitude economy, AI industrialization, and biomanufacturing are expected to remain relatively hot (3) In terms of low-volatility varieties, we will continue to pay attention to hydropower with stable free cash returns, property insurance with stable premium growth, banks with attractive dividend yields and improved asset quality, and some consumer goods leaders with increased dividend ratios and stable operations in 2023.

Huaan Securities: A new round of upward opportunities is coming, and highly elastic growth and hard fundamental varieties are preferred

Before the May Day, the A-share market rose as a whole, and during the May Day, the overseas stock market performed well, and the domestic Politburo meeting and the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting set the tone one after another. Looking ahead, the policy tone of the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee is positive and exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve has expressed a stable and dovish position, and the resonance of the internal and external meetings is conducive to boosting market risk appetite, and the market outlook is expected to usher in a new wave of upward movement. On the one hand, in the context of the "good start" of the economy in the first quarter and the GDP growth rate higher than the annual economic target, the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee in April required the policy to continue to move forward, and made targeted responses to problems such as the slow fiscal rhythm, dispelling the market's previous concerns about the tightening of policy after the GDP growth rate in the first quarter exceeded expectations. On the other hand, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's overall dovish statement after the meeting, coupled with the weakening of US employment data, the expectation of interest rate cuts this year has improved, and external risk appetite has been boosted.

In terms of industry allocation, we should pay attention to four main lines: the first main line is the highly elastic growth and brokerage under the market β, such as power equipment, pan-TMT sector, and electronics; the second main line is agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, which is a good medium and long-term allocation opportunity; the third main line is the fundamental varieties with prosperity or performance support, such as industrial metals, electric power, food and beverages; the fourth theme is the continuous opportunity of "new quality productivity", and there is a continuous catalysis of equipment update, so it is recommended to pay attention to semiconductor equipment, special equipment, environmental protection equipment, Industrial machine tools, robots and other directions.

Huatai Securities: A tactical trading window for equity assets

On April 30, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting, and the meeting decided to convene the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in July this year, focusing on deepening reforms, or boosting market risk appetite; In April, the U.S. non-farm payrolls fell short of expectations, significantly enhancing market interest rate cut expectations, combined with the Fed's significantly more dovish attitude at the May FOMC meeting, and announced that it would slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction from June, and pay attention to the follow-up overseas liquidity "pendulum return" tactical opportunities. In April, the domestic manufacturing PMI exceeded the Bloomberg consensus expectation, and the non-manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion range, and structurally pointed to the export chain and consumption, which was also cross-validated with the May Day travel/consumption data.

In terms of allocation, the dividend is still the medium-term bottom position, and tactically it can trade Hong Kong stocks, CSI 300 and some conference themes. First, market sentiment may improve in the short term under internal and external catalysis, and tactically we may pay attention to Hong Kong stocks and the CSI 300 that benefit from the "pendulum return" of overseas liquidity, as well as the themes mentioned in some meetings, such as new quality productivity and expanding domestic demand→. In the short term, the rotation of dividend assets can continue to be appropriately switched between A-shares and AH, and you can pay attention to A-share white electricity, dairy products, Hong Kong stock dividends, Zhongda Finance/Public Utilities, etc., and look for the direction of sustainable ROE improvement in the medium term. In terms of prosperity, supply pressure reduction and external demand pull may still be the main clues.

Cinda Securities: The shock since late March may have ended and may continue to rise in May

Since April, the market has been volatile due to factors such as the postponement of the Fed's interest rate cut, the cooling of thematic investment during the quarterly reporting period, and the average performance of economic data due to a high base. These effects may gradually end in May, and the market may return to the upward movement. We believe that there are three main core forces for the upward trend again: (1) Behind the delay of the Fed's interest rate cut is the reflation of the U.S. economy. The global economic inventory cycle is expected to resonate upward, and at the same time, it is also expected to ease domestic deflationary expectations, and China-related equity assets may benefit the most. (2) The relevant policies such as the National Nine Articles continued to exert force, the stock market ecology slowly changed, the scale of stock market financing decreased, the scale of dividends increased, and the supply and demand structure continued to improve. (3) In the process of the market rise from February to March, the positions of absolute return investors represented by private placements are not high, and there is still room to continue to replenish their positions in the future.

Industry allocation suggestion: The seasonal style in May is usually slightly biased towards small-cap growth, so the short-term may show a high-low cut in the style, but we believe that the general trend of the style is still valuable, and the high-low cut may not last long. The annual recommended allocation order in 2024: upstream cycle> auto auto parts, going overseas> financial real estate> AI, and old track (pharmaceutical, semiconductor, new energy) > consumption, the top of the ranking may be the strongest main line of the future bull market.

Guohai Securities: China's assets are expected to continue to repair and climb the ladder

In the second quarter, the strategy is recommended to maintain a positive and promising tone, and the market in April showed a pattern of "when weak but not weak", in the context of economic recovery and significant inflow of foreign capital, China's assets are expected to continue to repair and climb the ladder. The mainland's manufacturing PMI has been above the boom and bust line for two consecutive months, the external demand sector continues to be strong, the infrastructure investment margin in the domestic demand sector has improved, the real estate is weak but the negative impact on the economy is reducing, and the economy as a whole has entered a cycle of phased recovery. The US dollar is strong after the Fed postpones interest rate cuts, while the domestic macro liquidity is neutral and loose, the micro liquidity environment continues to improve, and the offshore RMB exchange rate strengthens against the trend. In addition, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on April 30, and from the perspective of increment, this meeting released three signals: first, the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held in July; second, the real estate demand-side policy will be further decentralized, and the supply-side measures will be accelerated; third, the issuance of local special bonds will be accelerated in the second quarter, and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are expected to usher in the first launch.

The key points of industry allocation include: 1) large-scale equipment update: under the background of strong policy support, the pro-cyclical sector is expected to take the lead in benefiting, and sub-sectors such as chemical industry and machinery may open a new round of upward cycle; 2) trade-in of consumer goods: At present, intelligence has become an important development direction for automobiles and home appliances. 3) The world has entered the era of artificial intelligence, AIGC has brought new opportunities for the development of the industry, and the hardware, software and content sectors have benefited from the application of AIGC, and the prosperity will continue to increase. In May, the preferred industries were chemicals, home appliances and electronics.

China Merchants Securities: Take advantage of the momentum and go to the next level

Looking forward to May, with the implementation of performance disclosure, the Politburo meeting set the tone of "riding on the momentum", special bonds and special treasury bond projects are expected to accelerate the landing, the trend of structural improvement in earnings under the background of low base last year is still there, and the quality of corporate earnings is further improved. In terms of liquidity, the Third Plenum will be held in July, and the risk appetite of domestic funds is expected to improve, and the strengthening of the renminbi and Hong Kong dollar indicates that foreign investors continue to increase their holdings of Chinese assets. The annual report and the first quarterly report confirm the downward trend of A-share capital expenditure growth, improved free cash flow FCF, and continuous increase in dividend ratio, and the real intrinsic return brought by A-shares to investors. The high ROE and high FCF leading strategy is expected to become a new investment paradigm. In addition, the technology sector is expected to return after the end of the performance disclosure period, and the market will present a situation where the FCF leader represented by CSI A50 and CSI 300 quality and the two-wheel drive of Kechuang 50 will reach a new level.

At the industry selection level, the short-term focus on the direction of performance improvement, and the medium and long-term focus on the direction of the inflection point of profitability and capacity expansion. It is recommended to focus on electronics, computers, medicine and biology in the field of scientific and technological growth, and the leading industries in the field of consumption cycle, such as food and beverage, home appliances, nonferrous metals, automobiles, machinery, etc. In May, we will focus on five tracks with marginal improvements: AI computing power (servers, optical modules, PCBs), industrial metals (copper, aluminum), integrated circuits (memory chips, semiconductor equipment), low-altitude economy (flying cars, digital infrastructure, unmanned freight), and ships (shipbuilding and oil transportation).

Open Source Securities: Don't be in a hurry and be patient and wait for the wind to come

The fundamentals are still being moderately repaired, but the molecular expectations are already starting to run ahead. After the rebound in February and March, the market needs new momentum to support the index to continue to attack, and the numerator is particularly important. During this period, the importance of structural decisions is even greater. It is recommended to continue to focus on the industries with the highest growth rate in the first quarter and the most obvious improvement in economic expectations. On the other hand, the United States has opened a new round of replenishment cycle, and the overseas manufacturing industry is expected to have a semi-annual recovery cycle, which means that the elasticity of external demand will be greater than that of domestic demand in the coming period. Therefore, combined with the strategic and tactical level, in the general direction of stable recovery of macro expectations, looking for cost-effective assets with low congestion and improved earnings expectations is expected to continue to be the decisive player in May.

Industry allocation suggestions: (1) manufacturing industry going overseas + performance expectation prevails + boom expectation upward revision: construction machinery, commercial vehicles, communication equipment; (2) independent business cycle in the direction of macro desensitization: semiconductors, aquaculture, oil transportation/ships, low-altitude economy; (3) in the medium-term dimension, the interest rate is low, the boom trend is scarce, and the policy strengthens dividends are the benchmark situation, and dividend assets are still the best choice for the bottom position allocation, focusing on: oil and gas exploitation and public utilities.

Zhongtai Securities: Liquidity-driven "odds trading"

From the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year, the core pricing factors of large asset classes shifted from liquidity to fundamentals. Among them, the strong expectations and strong reality of the overseas economy in the first quarter can be attributed to the continued easing of financial conditions in the early stage. At the same time, financial conditions in the United States eased further in the first quarter, but unlike in the fourth quarter of last year, this easing has hidden dangers. The performance of major asset classes in April suggests that this hidden danger may become a short-term trading risk for some assets. In May, on the basis of "increasing volatility at the top and bottom", we further emphasized the support of liquidity spillover to A-shares.

The main lines of industry allocation in May are "asset shortage" and "odds trading". (1) Under the logic of "asset shortage", we continue to be optimistic about the subsequent performance of dividend assets. (2) In terms of "odds trading", we suggest that we should pay attention to some domestic products whose valuations are at historically low levels, mainly including pharmaceuticals, textiles and apparel, and food and beverages, and there may be opportunities for valuation repair in the short term.

Industrial Securities: Long China to reshape the united front of core assets

First of all, the overly pessimistic expectations of the market at the beginning of the year have been gradually corrected from the low level by economic data and policy forces, which is exactly the opposite of the rhythm of 2023, and it is also an important reason why we have repeatedly emphasized "bullish thinking" this year. The current recovery of expectations and the recovery of risk appetite continues: 1) On the one hand, the April Politburo meeting set a more positive tone, which is expected to further boost market confidence. 2) On the other hand, the manufacturing PMI in April "stabilized the volume and rose in price", pointing to the fact that China's nominal economy is expected to continue to improve. Secondly, after the sharp rise in the United States, Europe, Japan and other markets since last year, and the index hit a record high, the economic weakness has gradually appeared, and the market volatility has increased significantly. In contrast, Chinese assets, which are still at a low level and have marginally improved economic and policy conditions, have become a more cost-effective choice.

Key industry recommendations in May: food and beverage (financial report shows profitability resilience, high dividend ratio + low valuation provides a high margin of safety), power equipment and new energy (pessimistic expectations are expected to be repaired, pay attention to going overseas + dilemma reversal logic), optical modules (the capital of large factories has begun to increase significantly, and 1.6T next year is expected to exceed expectations), electronics (the global consumer electronics cycle has rebounded, and the construction of AI computing power has accelerated to support the prosperity of core links), Hong Kong stock Internet (suppressive factors have eased + low valuation has brought positive feedback, and the follow-up is still resilient).

Huajin Securities: After the holiday, it may continue to fluctuate upwards and gain growth

The expected risk events before the holiday basically did not occur, and A-shares continued to fluctuate upward after the holiday. (1) Economic recovery and earnings improvement are expected to continue. First, travel and consumption during the May Day holiday were better, in line with previous expectations, and second, the Politburo meeting set the tone to raise economic and profit expectations. (2) Liquidity: The Fed's postponement of interest rate cuts has been fully expected, and the domestic market will remain accommodative, and post-holiday financing and foreign capital inflows may rise. (3) Policies to boost risk appetite: First, there are no obvious risk events during the holiday, and President Xi's visit to Europe may enhance market sentiment, and second, the Politburo meeting may boost market risk appetite after the holiday.

Post-holiday industry allocation: growth is dominant, focusing on TMT and core assets. (1) TMT and core assets may be dominant after the holiday: First, according to the historical review experience, the performance of industries such as technology growth, nonferrous metals, and securities companies is relatively superior when the index rises rapidly. Second, according to the previous analysis, foreign capital may continue to flow in the short term, and core assets such as electric power, home appliances, and food and beverage may benefit. (2) After the holiday, it is recommended to pay attention to: first, the media (the application of AI in games, education, etc.), computers (automatic driving, data elements), communication (computing power, low-altitude economy and Internet of Vehicles), electronics (semiconductors, consumer electronics) with upward policy and industrial trends;

(Finance Associated Press Ruoyu)

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