Summary: 9 consecutive yang!
Let's have a great holiday!
It's raining in many places, back to Chengdu, I saw the sun again, and the expected May is coming, gather my heart, and prepare for the red May.
There is a lot of good news at home and abroad during the holidays.
Hong Kong stocks have seen a rare 9 consecutive yang rise, entering a technical bull market, the old US non-farm data is lower than expected, interest rate cut expectations are expected to rise again, and there is also a temporary ceasefire in the east, and the domestic side is also full of good.
So next week's big A high opening is a certainty, as for whether to open high and go high, or open high and go low, iron, what do you think?
Let's take a look at the big things that have been discovered during the holidays.
Market hotspots
Macro: Z East, non-farm, and interest rate cuts are essentially to maintain the strength of U.S. stocks or to protect U.S. stocks from smashing.
Of course, it is also good for A-shares, the feedback is that A50 is strong, Hong Kong stocks are strong, and RMB holidays appreciate sharply, so next week to see if foreign capital accelerates its entry.
The domestic conference at the end of April made it clear that the three Z all H will be opened in July, which emphasizes reform and modernization.
With this expectation, it is not excluded that funds will do the expected market, so the next May and June may be relatively better.
Goldman Sachs even spoke out, and the most optimistic rise in A-shares may be as high as 40%.
At the current 3,100 points, wouldn't it rise to more than 4,000 points?
Of course, several directions mentioned at the end of April can still be tracked, such as real estate, Yangtze River Delta integration, new quality productivity, foreign trade, etc.
Real estate: Beijing's purchase restrictions have been adjusted for the first time in 13 years, and the purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road have been relaxed. However, many netizens do not recognize this strength, and see if it will be further liberalized in the future.
Integration of the Yangtze River Delta: Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui. It's hard to say whether the map will be speculated, but the theme superimposed on the Shanghai plate may be a plus.
New quality productivity: the scope is very wide, and there is also a response to modernization, and there is a high probability that there will be repeated hype, but the plate may still rotate to see which subdivision can come out after the holiday.
Foreign trade: Mainly depends on the consumption direction of foreign exports, as well as the hype of the concept of free trade, which is also related to Shanghai; Putin's visit to China in May to see whether the concept of Sino-Russian cooperation is fermenting.
Low-altitude economy: Huawei's Meng Wanzhou talked about low-altitude cooperation for the first time, and during the May Day holiday, central media, Guangming, CCTV, etc., are all calling for low-altitude economy.
AI: OpenAI will release the ChatGPT search engine next week to challenge Google search; The domestic Chinese version of the SORA app is amazing, and the Hong Kong stock SenseTime has risen 1.6 times in seven days.
High-speed rail: Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway, Shanghai-Hangzhou passenger dedicated, Shanghai-Kunming passenger dedicated, Hangzhou-Ningbo passenger dedicated, four high-speed rail fares will open a price increase window in June, with an increase of about 20%; the equipment renewal plan in the transportation field has not yet been announced, and the market has speculated that high-speed rail is the focus;
Disc review
It rose sharply before the holiday, and planned to do it vigorously, but on the last day before the holiday, the market was completely extinguished.
Synthetic biology strengthened, the low-altitude economy was deeply adjusted, finance and real estate were differentiated, and Guosheng Financial Holdings, which had been strong for a day, closed without a main line.
With the help of the holiday overseas surge and the good news, there is a high probability that the general rise will be a big stew first, and then diverge out of the main direction.
Therefore, the opening node after the holiday is to observe which high opening divergences can be weak and strong again, or they cannot be grabbed on the first day, and the next day's strength is strong.
As for the plate, there are too many good plates during the holiday, and I am not afraid of not having them, but I am afraid of too much, and too many are not easy to choose.
But from a macro perspective + quantitative energy, you can still do the hypothetical reasoning you want.
Large-scale look at brokerage + technology to see if it can get out of the main rising wave.
Brokerage restructuring is expected, and there is also the role of the bull market standard-bearer.
Science and technology has previously shared two major parts, domestic independent and controllable (quantum technology, memory chips, etc.), and scientific and technological innovation (low-altitude economy, synthetic biology, innovative drugs, unmanned driving, etc.).
The shrinkage looks at the over-falling rebound of the sector, consumption, real estate, water conservancy, high-speed rail, aircraft carrier concept, etc., and even the rotation between active themes.
It is worth mentioning that Warren Buffett, who has $200 billion in his hands, said at the 2024 shareholder meeting that many people are swinging their bats whenever they want, and we only swing at the right time.
Optimistic about May, but before you get out of the obvious main line, you might as well be patient.