In the competition in the automobile market, the battle between electric cars and gasoline vehicles has always been a hot topic. After all, everyone has their favorite model, and no one can convince the other.
But what is controversial is that it is said that trams are more advanced than oil cars, so why does the state still support trams - isn't it very good? Why do we need external forces to intervene?
yes, that's a problem.
Because we all know that good things don't need support at all, and people will rush to buy them - unless it's not that good!
Is that really the case? I consulted some insiders, and they explained why.
He also said that to understand this problem, it is necessary to start with the current situation of the train.
01 Current train situation
When it comes to the current situation of trains, in a word, it is "fast" and "new".
Fast refers to the growth rate of the market.
Because 5 years ago, let alone challenging the leadership position of fuel vehicles, even whether this "new gadget" can survive is debatable.
After all, at that time, except for Tesla and BYD, there were basically no tram car companies that were very capable of beating them, except for a few new forces with average sales, and there was basically a fault line down there - there was no backbone at all.
But now, the situation is very different, not to mention the tram industry, the surrounding related industries are making a lot of money.
Taking the battery industry as an example, it has directly given birth to giants like CATL, and its market value is almost comparable to "BAT".
Forget it, service providers like Star Charging have even begun to prepare for listing, which is outrageous.
Of course, what is more exaggerated than this should be "new".
To put it bluntly, in terms of technology, Tesla was far ahead of the fault line before, but in 2024, the situation has changed a lot.
The 800V that Tesla does not have, and the current domestic batteries are basically available, and the large batteries that Tesla does not have, and now the domestic batteries are beginning to sprint to the semi-solid state.
Forget about these new gadgets, in terms of three-electric management, the level of independent brands is also close to Tesla.
In terms of energy consumption levels, several cars are starting to compete with Tesla.
It sounds powerful, but why do you need the support of the state?
02 Why support
Actually, it's not surprising.
Because if a new thing does not have enough industrial breadth and depth, even if the advantages are obvious, it will be difficult to develop.
To put it bluntly, in the early days of the founding of the People's Republic of China, the state did not support the development of industry, and the mainland's industrial system could be established.
But the problem is that this natural process must be very slow.
The final result is that, let alone becoming the world's factory, it may not even be as good as Vietnam, at most it is at the level of India.
The development of the tram is also a problem, not because it is very "backward", but to accelerate it, in more time, to maximize its growth.
It is also because of this support that the tram has been able to overtake in corners of Europe and the United States.
At the same time, in the first half of April 2024 alone, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will exceed 50%, 11 years earlier than the original target of 2035.
On the other hand, without the intervention of the state, this "emerging fire" is estimated to have been extinguished before it has even been burned.
Because traditional car companies, or those with vested interests in gasoline vehicles, would they be willing to develop trams?
If there is no tram, they can lie on the technical barriers and eat for a lifetime, set the price high, and cut the leeks fiercely.
But with the tram, the passing of such good days is predictable.
Therefore, if the state does not support it, they can use huge funds and market positions to carry out vicious competition and directly shoot new energy vehicles to death.
Of course, pampering doesn't last forever, and once it matures, it puts an end to it.
03 When will this situation end
In fact, it is nothing more than looking at two indicators, one is the situation of the stock market.
To put it bluntly, although the penetration rate of trams is now very high, it is still not worth mentioning compared to the situation in the stock market.
As of the end of September 2023, the number of new energy vehicles in the country is 18.21 million, accounting for only 5.5% of the number of cars - such data will definitely continue to be supported.
Unless one day, the stock market of oil and tram cars can be half divided or slightly approached, and the end of this policy can be announced.
After all, the tram at that time was also considered an "adult", and the stock users were about the same, so whether they were strong or weak, and whether they could stand alone in the world depended on their own ability.
The other is to look at the process of global competition.
Because the competition in the automobile market is not the competition of several companies, but also the competition between countries.
It is true that we can give up support, but can Europe and the United States give up? Surely not!
After all, they want to stay ahead of the curve on this new track. I want to be able to take my own country's advanced tram and continue to make a lot of profits on the territory of other countries.
In fact, China also has such an idea, because who would be too little for money?
Because foreign exchange purchases, all aspects have to spend money - if there is a "cash cow" such as a car to support, the country's pockets can be much richer.
In general, no matter how advanced things are, they also need time to develop and care.
It's like an adult tiger is fierce, but a newborn tiger cub may not be as good as a wild dog, and if it is not cared for, it may be eaten by other beasts quickly, right?