Vanke's frequent "thunderstorms", the former top real estate students have to admit that they have entered a difficult period, which has caused widespread discussion about real estate.
As one of the main pillar industries in the mainland, the real estate industry has entered a "cold winter period" under the influence of national regulatory policies.
The real estate economy is sluggish, and the fiscal deficit in various places has begun to increase, and there has been news that Sichuan Province will transfer part of the management rights of the Leshan Giant Buddha Scenic Area for 30 years, with a bidding price of 1.7 billion yuan.
The Buddhas have all been "sold", and the financial pressure in various places is really so great?
Some employees of state-owned enterprises broke out, and the unit began to implement the salary reduction system, and the wave of salary cuts in state-owned enterprises has begun.
Will the "iron rice bowl" favored by teachers, doctors and civil servants also need to be streamlined, and how big is the financial pressure and how can it be resolved?
1. Financial pressure
Fiscal pressure is actually an imbalance between the government's fiscal revenues and expenditures.
Finance is an economic behavior with the state as the main body, and through the revenue and expenditure activities to meet public needs, the optimal allocation of resources is achieved and the goal of stable economic development is achieved.
As an economic process, fiscal revenue and fiscal expenditure are included, and fiscal pressure is actually that the government's fiscal revenue is less than fiscal expenditure.
The main sources of fiscal revenue are tax revenues, treasury bond revenues, income from state-owned assets, administrative fees and other non-tax revenues.
Fiscal expenditure can be divided into three main categories: daily expenditure, operating expenditure, and investment expenditure.
Daily expenses include state administrative expenses, public services, social security, etc.
Operating expenditures include the implementation of infrastructure construction projects, state subsidies and policy expenditures, while investment expenditures include appropriation funds, enterprise loans and social investment.
Since the reform and opening up, driven by the real estate economy, the mainland economy has achieved rapid development, and the fiscal revenue has increased from 6.2 billion yuan in 1950 to 216784 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of more than 3,000 times in just 70 years.
However, in recent years, the real estate economy has entered a cold winter period, and the economic growth rate of the mainland has begun to slow down, although the fiscal revenue is also growing steadily every year.
However, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure is much greater than that of fiscal revenue, and the fiscal gap is increasing year by year, resulting in an imbalance between fiscal revenue and expenditure.
The mainland's economy is currently in a period of transition. With the development of information technology, the digital economy has become an inevitable trend of future economic development.
The real estate economy is in a period of transformation, and at the same time, the government has implemented a series of tax and fee reduction policies, coupled with the impact of the new crown epidemic for three years, the mainland's economic development has entered a bottleneck.
In order to promote economic growth, the government continues to implement the reform of state-owned enterprises, but the road to state-owned enterprise reform is still groping in practice, and there are frequent cases of reform failure.
It is even more difficult for private enterprises to survive, and there are not a few enterprises that have gone bankrupt and closed down during the epidemic.
The state-owned enterprises are not big enough, and the private enterprises are not doing well, and the government's tax revenue is affected, and the fiscal revenue will naturally not go up.
The growth rate of fiscal revenue has declined, fiscal expenditure has grown rigidly, and fiscal pressure has increased year by year.
Fiscal revenues have not risen, but at the same time, fiscal expenditures have grown rigidly. First of all, fiscal spending should ensure the necessary needs of the public, infrastructure construction still needs to be continuously spent, and at the same time, in order to stabilize employment, government agencies cannot implement large-scale layoffs.
In addition, basic livelihood needs need to be guaranteed, medical care, education and other fields still need to increase spending, and people's aspirations for a better life are much higher than before.
Second, fiscal expenditures have been reduced
The reduction of fiscal expenditure will inevitably affect the quality of life of the people, so it is even more difficult to reduce fiscal expenditure.
Revenue growth is smaller than expenditure growth, and the fiscal gap is bound to increase year by year.
According to statistics, in 2014, the revenue growth rate was 9.36%, the expenditure growth rate was 8.85%, basically flat, after 2015, the expenditure growth rate of 16.51% exceeded the income growth rate of 8.98%, and the expenditure growth rate has been higher than the income growth rate in 2010.
In 2010, the fiscal revenue and expenditure gap of mainland districts and counties was 798.01 million yuan, and by 2020, the gap between revenue and expenditure has increased to 2860.6 million yuan, an increase of 3.3 times in 10 years, which shows that the government's financial pressure is increasing year by year.
The increase in financial pressure will inevitably affect people's daily lives. Fiscal pressures may cause local governments to look for alternative revenues.
Most of the alternative fiscal revenues are obtained by non-tax means, including non-tax revenues such as administrative fees, fines, and land transfers.
When the government passes on the financial pressure to enterprises through administrative means, enterprises will face tremendous pressure, and there will be business difficulties, salary cuts and layoffs mentioned above.
3. Who will be streamlined?
Will the "iron rice bowl" favored by teachers, doctors and civil servants be streamlined?
Salary cuts and layoffs are one of the means for enterprises and institutions to cope with the financial pressure that has been passed on, and private enterprises are already in the big waves, eager that one person can do the work of three people.
State-owned enterprises cannot lay off employees on a large scale, and can only reduce their employees in disguised form by means of small salary cuts.
Will the most popular teachers, doctors, and civil servants also be downsized?
According to statistics, the mainland has 17 million teachers, 9 million doctors and 12 million civil servants, accounting for 55 percent of the total financial supporters.
In the face of tight finances, how to achieve a more effective allocation of limited resources is a problem that we must face.
Teachers, the core resource of education, should strengthen the balance of resource allocation.
Teachers shoulder the important task of cultivating the country's future talents and are the core resources of education, but although there are many teachers and practitioners in the mainland, the allocation of educational resources is uneven.
First of all, there is a gap between the eastern and western regions in terms of educational resources, and the eastern cities are developing faster than the western cities, and the eastern regions are better than the western ones in terms of salary levels and welfare benefits.
Therefore, high-end educational talents are concentrated in the first-tier cities in the east, and it is not only difficult to introduce talents in the west, but also the talents cultivated by themselves will also be lost.
Second, there is a large gap between urban and rural educational resources. In some remote rural areas and economically underdeveloped areas, not only the infrastructure is backward, but also there is a shortage of teachers.
Many children may not be able to go to school, compared with the city, children from better families not only receive school education, but also participate in additional extracurricular training, and the education gap between urban and rural areas reflects the imbalance in the allocation of educational resources.
Therefore, simply streamlining the teaching staff does not seem to solve the problem of resource allocation.
What needs to be streamlined is to let the capable people go to the local area where they are needed, instead of getting together and forgetting why they wanted to be a teacher in the first place.
Doctors, the guarantee of people's happy life, need real medicine to cure the disease.
A doctor is supposed to be a highly respected profession, and through his exquisite medical skills, he rejuvenates, saves lives, and protects people's health.
However, in recent years, the doctor-patient relationship has been much discussed, and there is no shortage of patients in hospitals, but patients lack good doctors who can really help him relieve his pain.
It is difficult, expensive, and chaotic to see a doctor, and it has always been a major medical problem that has been criticized by people.
In 2018, "I Am Not the God of Medicine" was born, which pushed the discussion of doctor-patient relationship to a peak, and the country immediately implemented various medical reform measures, but some medical problems still exist.
There is no shortage of medical problems, some doctors collude with enterprises to make profits, resulting in patients not receiving reasonable treatment, coupled with the benefits of bad money driving out good money, medical problems are exacerbated.
Therefore, the number of doctors does need to be reduced, but simply reducing the number of doctors will not solve the problem. What the people need is to let those experts who really have medical ethics and medical skills stand in the center of the stage, and those who are unethical quacks for the purpose of making profits will be kicked out of the team as soon as possible.
Civil servants, good servants of the people, should tell the truth and do practical things.
Civil servants are the backbone of government operations, and the government's image in the hearts of the people depends entirely on civil servants to maintain it.
However, most people now think that civil servants are "fragrant and sweet", and they are eager to take the position of civil servant, and it is even more serious at the district and county level.
In the face of financial constraints, civil servants who only eat and do not work should indeed be downsized. At present, in many areas, there is a phenomenon of excessive and even redundant civil servants, and financial resources are wasted, which directly affects the efficiency of the government.
With regard to the readjustment of the civil service, it is first necessary to make rational arrangements for the internal structure in light of the strategic objectives of the departments.
Then set up functional departments from the perspective of achieving strategic goals, and finally set up personnel according to the needs of functions, hierarchical management, and put an end to idle posts.
In addition, it is necessary to strengthen the building of the contingent of civil servants, and there is no shortage of high-achieving students from prestigious schools in the contingent of civil servants, so that the effect of talents can be brought into full play.
Downsizing is only a symptom, and the real antidote to financial pressure is to optimize the allocation of resources.
The mainland has a vast land and a large population, and the world powers are eyeing the continent in order to gain a foothold among the great powers.
Nowadays, it is preparing to transform into a scientific and technological power, but the transformation is a long and difficult process, and the development of the economy will also have various shocks in the transformation process, such as the real estate industry, the education and training industry, etc.
If the economy does not develop, it will naturally affect the country's fiscal revenue and expenditure, and when the revenue is facing a bottleneck, it is necessary to control the expenditure.
Therefore, how to optimize the allocation of limited resources is an important issue for the government to resolve the financial pressure.
Education, health care and people's livelihood are closely related to people's lives, so a large proportion of fiscal expenditure is spent on these fields every year, and teachers, doctors and civil servants are the backbone of these fields, and their resource allocation must attract people's attention.
However, personnel reduction is only a symptom in the process of resource allocation, and this "invisible hand" is only to put the right people in the right positions.
We believe that after such a big wave of sand, real gold will emerge, if you are a gold, please accept the test and have the last laugh!