This number is the only official account of the WeChat public account "Shi Kelang", the author of this article: Uncle S.
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This world is becoming more and more treacherous and changeable!
Another thrilling battle has begun!
Recently, in another battlefield, the United States gritted its teeth and directly pressed its national fortunes!
Look at these four people, all of a sudden, they have a big change of face!
The first is our old acquaintance, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, on April 17, he said that although our US economy "remains strong on the whole", the inflation rate has not returned to the "target level"!
After that, he unequivocally came to a conclusion: in the short term, it is unlikely that interest rates will be cut!
The second person is Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson, who also followed Powell's tone and said that if inflation slows down as expected, we are prepared to continue with "tight monetary policy."
This guy I've introduced before:
He is a 62-year-old economist who previously served as president of the Davidson College in North Carolina.
Just the year before last, under the nomination of Biden, he became a member of the Federal Reserve after a Senate vote.
Unexpectedly, only 1 year later, he was promoted by Biden again last year and became the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve!
Become the second person in the Federal Reserve!
Whose hardcore little brother is he?
It's clear here!
The third person is New York Fed President Williams, who we have here yesterday and he publicly said: If the data shows that the Fed needs to raise interest rates in order to achieve its goals, then the Fed will raise interest rates!
The first two are just saying: we need to keep interest rates high as we are now.
Williams went one step further, and even said that he was going to raise interest rates!
Why is the speech of these three people quite noteworthy?
Because they are the first, second, and third in command of the Federal Reserve!
The chairman of the Federal Reserve is the number one;
Although Jefferson is the second-in-command, his qualifications are too shallow, and his speech is not particularly concerned by the outside world;
Although Williams is titled as chairman of the New York Fed, he seems to be a "local prince", but New York is the financial center of the United States, so he is the de facto "third-in-command" of the Federal Reserve!
At this point, there is already a feeling that the mountain rain is coming!
Let's talk about the fourth person: JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon!
Absolute Wall Street bigwigs!
More than 10 days ago, on April 8, Dimon said in his annual letter to shareholders: Because government spending is too high, US inflation and interest rates may continue to be higher than market expectations, and he is ready for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to a maximum of 8%.
What does it mean?
The current benchmark interest rate for the US dollar is 5.25-5.5%!
This means: the Fed will not only not cut interest rates in the future, but may raise them!
At that time, many people on Wall Street in the United States thought that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates!
So as soon as his words came out, the financial community was shocked, and even caused a lot of discussions. But now it turns out: the Fed has followed up on his claims!
Seeing this, many people may have to say: From the middle of last year to the beginning of this year, haven't Americans been clamoring that interest rates will be cut soon? Why did they suddenly change their faces?
This has to start with the financial war suddenly launched by the United States in March 2022, which is definitely full of twists and turns, full of many thrilling points!
Broadly speaking, it can be divided into five phases.
The first stage is: the United States has been camouflaging for a long time, and suddenly it has launched a financial war with lightning speed and unconcealed momentum!
Before the Russian-Ukrainian war appeared, when people asked, what should we do in the past few years, but we started the nuclear-powered money printing machine and put a lot of water?
At that time, whether it was Powell or Yellen, they were all lazy, what did they say?
There will be no inflation!
Later, inflation went up, and it was quite fierce, what did they say?
Inflation is transitory!
After waiting for the war between Russia and Ukraine, these two people wiped their faces, put the previous pretense and previous statements behind, and immediately started a violent interest rate hike, and at the same time imposed crazy sanctions on Russia!
What do they want to do with this pretence?
Roughly speaking, it is such a wishful thinking: the consequences of interest rate hikes on the real economy often have a delay period, about 9 to 12 months, if the United States is clever enough this time, it may be able to raise interest rates violently, the fastest speed from the world to return enough blood, and when the adverse reaction of interest rate hikes appears, it will release water to save itself.
To put it simply, it's a quick fix!
But where to put your mouth down?
The Americans quickly picked the target: Russia!
Its wishful thinking is: through crazy and violent sanctions, first knock down the Russian ruble in one fell swoop, and then, as in the 1990s, pounce on the corpses of Russia, feast, first have a pre-dinner snack, and then eat the main course, that is, us!
So this financial war soon entered the second stage: Yellen vs. Nabiullina, the head of the Central Bank of Russia!
Before the start of the fight, Biden was full of confidence, and he shouted in public in Poland: the Russian economy will collapse, and the ruble will turn into wallpaper.
It's worthless, you can only use it to paste the wall!
Why is he so confident?
Because in 2021, Russia's GDP will only be 1.84 trillion US dollars in US dollars, which is not as good as Guangdong Province!
And the forces that Biden has gathered are the United States and all its allies, and the total amount is more than 30 times that of Russia!
As a result, I never dreamed that Yellen and Nabiullina fought for 3 rounds and lost all of them!
The first round was: Yellen kicked Russia out of the SWIFT system, and Nabiullina immediately launched a ruble settlement order.
The United States was hit by seven inches, and the world started the process of "de-dollarization"!
It's a big loss!
The second round is: Yellen ordered the West to collectively freeze Russian property; Nabiullina returned a set of combination punches, the basic effect is that whoever eats me will spit it out for me; whoever takes me, obediently I will send it back!
In this round, the United States lost again: all countries in the world feel that it is not safe to put their property in the West!
Yellen's third leg was a Wall Street shot and dried the ruble into waste paper, and Nabiullina immediately announced that the official exchange rate would be calculated based on the average weighted data of the exchange rate of the Russian stock exchange from 10 a.m. to 3:30 p.m.!
At 3:30 p.m. Moscow time, it was 8:30 a.m. in New York, and the foreign exchange market in New York opened at 9 o'clock.
Nabiullina
How so?
Nabiullina is really a genius, obviously at an absolute disadvantage, but she has come up with strange tricks, beating the Americans on the financial battlefield and spitting out several mouthfuls of old blood!
The result: the Americans want a quick fix, but by November 2022, the situation is so clear that it can't do it!
For the Americans, things suddenly became embarrassing: the interest was increased, and the sanctions were also imposed, but nothing worked, what should I do?
On November 12, 2022, I made an analysis of the embarrassment of the United States: (See: Just now, a sudden collapse, a heavy signal is coming)
However, the United States is engaged in raising interest rates and playing the dollar tide, which is a bit like a "seven wounded fist", in addition to hurting the enemy, it will also be injured itself, which is a typical killing of 1,000 enemies and self-damage of at least 400!
As a result, in March last year, the effect of killing the enemy was basically non-existent, and the self-loss of 400 was revealed: Bank of America began to explode one after another because it could not stand it, first Silicon Valley Bank, and then Signature Bank or something.
According to the convention, at this time, this kind of interest should not be increased again, but should be stopped, and even consider lowering the interest rate and releasing the water, so as to save yourself first!
But if you do this, then the United States will suffer a super defeat in the financial battlefield, and a discerning person can see it at a glance!
Whether it is Yellen or Powell's incompetence, it will be shown, and it will even go up and lead Biden!
How can this kind of thing be known to the outside world?
At this point, the financial war has entered the third stage: Yellen and Powell have decided to grit their teeth again, add this interest, and press it again!
At this time, because of the fight with the Russians and the defeat of several battles, this pre-dinner snack was so difficult to chew, the Americans simply let it go and went straight to our "main course" they conceived!
As a result, we can see: in March last year, our foreign trade was good, but in April and May, it came down!
But the constitution of the United States is too weak, and by July last year, after the benchmark interest rate of the dollar was raised to 5.25 to 5.5%, they did not dare to raise it again, because the situation was already obvious, and if it was increased again, maybe something would really happen!
Then Powell and Yellen kept the pressure high, while staring at us intently, ready to do it at any time!
And what about the crumbling banks in the United States?
Get a "directional water release"!
The result is: last year, many people on our side were pressed by this kind of high pressure, and they had a very hard time!
But we survived!
For the Americans, such a result is extremely bad news for them!
As mentioned above: the US economic physique is too poor, according to the original plan, its interest rate hike should be a "quick solution", and within 9 to 12 months, it will complete the harvest of us and Russia, that is to say, from the end of 2022 to March 2023, it should consider cutting interest rates and releasing water!
As a result, the first is that it was not harvested, and the second is that in March 2023, there was also a bank explosion, and Yellen and Powell were afraid of taking the responsibility for the defeat and wanted to delay the interest rate hike.
In addition, they always have the illusion that if I hold on any longer, China may not be able to do it, and I can pounce on it and feast on it!
At this point, they went against the original intention of "quick victory" and began to engage in a protracted war against it!
But do they know that this protracted war, if it continues, will be very detrimental to the United States?
Of course you do!
Then around the second half of last year, this financial war entered the fourth stage: the Americans began to think about withdrawing their troops directly and starting to cut interest rates and release water in the event that they failed to win!
And then we see: in July of last year, a wave of visits by U.S. officials began to visit China.
What they didn't get on the battlefield, they actually wanted to get it by coming to us!
After the Cold War, the United States was therefore in a position of hegemony for a long time, and almost all of its officials now have almost forgotten the sense of despair brought to the upper echelons of its ruling by the Korean War and the Vietnam War, and they do not know how the Soviet Union continued to advance during the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, which made its decision-makers at that time worried, but felt that the United States was born with a clear destiny and won the Cold War, and that it was purely fate, so a large number of arrogant, ignorant and incompetent officials emerged.
Before the results came, we first made a bunch of things, such as imposing chip sanctions on us, and pulling in Japan and the Netherlands, and then said that they would restrict US companies' investment in China's high-tech industries, involving semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum computing and other fields.
Blinken also said angrily: We just want to say what China doesn't like to hear, and do things that China doesn't like!
The result?
Our side announced: export restrictions on gallium and germanium!
These two things are so versatile!
Not only the Americans, but also a whole bunch of its little brothers in Japan, South Korea and so on, immediately jumped to their feet!
Its Secretary of Commerce, Raimondo, came to us just in time for the launch of the Huawei Mate60 Pro!
After going back, Raimondo was questioned by the same arrogant congressman, and he really became "thunderous"!
How so?
I thought it was the limit of pressure, but I didn't expect that our side could not only defuse it, but also fight back!
I wanted to eat, but I didn't eat it, so Mingjin withdrew his troops, fled, and the defeat was even more ugly!
What to do?
I can only continue to stand up!
After that, we saw a miraculous phenomenon: since about August last year, the stock markets of Japan and India have all risen sharply, but our side just doesn't rise!
It didn't take long for a new term to come out in the United States: ABC!
Anywhere but China！
You can vote anywhere, but you can't vote for us!
In the second half of last year, Biden personally took the lead, and a large number of Western media behind him almost rushed up, saying that we can't do it every day!
But never dreamed that they were wrong!
Since about December last year, the world has entered the replenishment cycle, and foreign trade has begun to warm!
At the same time, our new three things began to exert force: batteries, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics!
In the first quarter of this year, GDP grew by 5.3%, and the world's major institutions have raised our growth figures for this year!
The United States is even more embarrassed!
At this time, it found that it had not only missed the opportunity to cut interest rates and release water, but even had no way out!
One thing is: the burden of its national debt is so serious that almost 10 years ago, the size of its national debt was still increasing by about $1 trillion a year, and now it has to increase by 1 trillion every 100 days!
Moreover, the interest rate hike has been too long, and in the process, it has continued to borrow new to pay off the old, resulting in a large increase in the interest to be paid!
The Congressional Budget Office recently released data that it will pay $870 billion in interest on the national debt this year!
After that, it will increase year by year:
In 2025, that is, next year, it will reach $951 billion, more than its military spending;
It will reach $1.6 trillion in 2034!
In the next 10 years, the net interest paid on the national debt alone will be $12.4 trillion, or $37,100 per capita!
Before: borrowing money is cool for a while, and paying off debts in the crematorium!
Now it's time to borrow money and pay interest for the crematorium!
It dragged on and on, and as a result, it put itself on the road of no return, basically dead and dead!
The second thing is: the Americans suddenly found that even if the interest rate is cut and released at this time, the dollar has nothing to invest in, and it is very likely that what will run to is the new three things that Yellen scolded us for "overcapacity" some time ago: batteries, new energy vehicles and photovoltaics!
The result will be more deindustrialized in the United States!
Our industry is stronger because of this!
How can the United States tolerate this?
So recently, the United States has put on a posture: we want to carry out the financial war to the fifth stage!
How to fight this fifth stage?
Now many economists in the United States have begun to talk about one person: Paul Volcker!
I have said this person before: in the 1970s and early 1980s, when the US economy was crumbling and in a state of stagflation, he was the chairman of the Federal Reserve at that time, and raised interest rates to more than 20% in one breath, so that the US economy could be revitalized!
But during this time, the Americans did not say so, but: because Paul Volcker gritted his teeth and increased the interest rate hike to more than 20% in one go, thus blowing up the Soviet economy and letting it collapse!
At this point, everyone understands what I mean by mentioning these four people at the top, and the recent speech is almost the same: the situation is now more and more unfavorable for the United States, and the long pain is better than the short pain, we should learn from Paul Volcker, direct stud, raise interest rates to 8% in one breath, and fight with the rabbit!
Use the same way you used to deal with the USSR back then, and deal with us!
Is this really effective?
Not necessarily.
Here we have to review what Paul Volcker relied on to raise interest rates to more than 20% in one go.
He became chairman of the Federal Reserve in 1979, just in time for the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
This war frightened many large oil-producing countries in the Middle East, and they were very afraid that they would become the second, so they hurriedly defected to the American camp, and also contributed money and efforts to fight against the Soviet Union.
At that time, these oil-producing countries were really working hard, and Paul Volcker raised interest rates over there, so they cooperated with him to increase oil production and directly knock down the oil.
The Soviet Union suffered: its main foreign exchange earnings depended on the sale of oil and gas!
As soon as the price of oil fell, it blossomed in all directions, and there were wars everywhere, and it was the time to use a lot of money!
fell into an economic crisis.
At that time, Europe and we also felt that the Soviet Union was a threat, and everyone started an international division of labor!
So in fact, at that time the USSR was isolated so that the United States could raise the rate by 20%.
But even so, in the wave of Paul Volcker's interest rate hikes, the traditional industries of the United States have not been able to withstand it, and its manufacturing industry has either closed down or moved to the rest of the world, and deindustrialization has begun.
So the 1980s was also the time when the Southeast Asian and Asian tigers rose.
Does the United States still have these conditions?
None of them are gone!
So why is the United States so confident, and put on a posture that since the time has passed to cut interest rates and release water, I will not only not cut interest rates, but will raise interest rates, and directly fight with us?
Because it thinks that it can pull the two little brothers first, push them to the table, eat the mat first, and continue to fight with us to the end!
Which two little brothers?
One is Japan;
One is South Korea!
At the beginning of April, there was news that American capital has gathered on a large scale and is ready to short the yen and South Korean won, and the number of short orders opened is quite high!
Recently, the US dollar against the yen is also rushing towards 155 yen per dollar!
The Nikkei index also plummeted by more than 10% and entered a technical bear market!
The next one is very likely: the double kill of stocks and foreign exchange will lead to a serious shrinkage of Japanese assets, and when Japan's assets fall to a certain extent, American capital will rush out and make it ankle cut!
Have a good meal, and then fight us to the death!
But will it work?
Not necessarily, because during this time, Japan and South Korea were also frightened by the Yankees' posture, and the two countries joined forces and directly approached Yellen, saying that we will definitely intervene in the foreign exchange market, which means: If you and the United States really want to eat us, we Japan and South Korea will definitely resist!
This matter is complicated, if the United States wants to eat Japan and South Korea, I am afraid it is not so easy, it is not so convenient, and there has to be a turning point in the middle.
At this point, we can re-tell the prediction made at that time in 2022: If the United States fails to achieve a "quick solution" in raising interest rates this time, and it will soon be harvested by us and Russia, then the United States will be very sad in the future. In this case, it is quite possible, on the contrary, to raise interest rates aggressively.
Because there has been a gap of nearly 18 months between then and now, I can add one more sentence here: the United States engaged in a financial war this time, it was wrong at the beginning, and then it was wrong all the way, and now it is found that it is useless to cut interest rates and release water, and even want to simply raise interest rates to the end.
At this point, I can make a summary, two sentences.
The first sentence is: Biden and his group of people, always confident, methodical, and messed everything up.
The second sentence is: This is the last battle, and the process will be very hard, but after this victory, there will be no danger ahead!