#精品长文创作季#近两年来银行存款的增长既颠覆了人们对银行拉存款的认知, it has also greatly subverted the perception of the bank's internal deposit task. In the past, the deposit competition model of bank deposit task tending, fee tending, relationship and resource tending has been alienated into deposit competition giving way to loan competition, which is a huge challenge to the business model and development mode of the banking industry.
First of all, there is a new understanding of the three major problems of bank deposits: the shift in the competitive landscape of bank deposits will disrupt the business strategy of banks
The increase in mainland residents' savings of 17.8 trillion yuan in 2022 and 14 trillion yuan in 2023 has directly subverted the mainland's perception of deposits, and also subverted the overall pattern of the deposit business, and had a huge impact on the banking industry.
The first question is, is the growth of bank deposits the basis for the growth of banking business?
In the past, banks experienced the era of deposit establishment and the era of heroes based on the size of deposits, but now the sky-high growth of bank deposits will directly impact the re-examination of the growth of deposit scale by banks.
The competition of banks must have the ability to withstand the test of a long cycle, and deposits are only a means of banks and not the goal of bank operations; the traditional thinking and era of "judging heroes by the scale of deposits and the growth rate of deposits" in the past is to regard deposits as the goal of bank operations, thus truly putting the cart before the horse. Banks really need to reshape their business fundamentals and readjust their development goals in order to take advantage of the long-term competition.
The second question is, with such abundant bank deposit resources and easy deposit growth, do banks still need deposits at present?
Do banks really need deposits? This is a question that a lot of people have to face. Some people say that banks don't need to deposit money at the moment, because it's too easy for banks to deposit money now. In fact, this is a misconception, banks do not need deposits, but do not need high-cost deposits, what banks really need is low-cost deposits. As a result, the future battleground for banks' deposit competition will shift to low-cost deposits, rather than what all deposits want.
This means that the new deposit competition pattern in the banking industry will be more fierce, more intense, and more difficult, because the contrast between depositors' thirst for high-interest rate deposits and banks' competition for low-interest rate deposits is too great, and there is an impossible triangle between compatibility and targeting.
The third question is, is the market share of bank deposits really important?
In the past, the competition of banks for deposits was mainly reflected in the size of deposits and the market share of deposits, but now that the era of heroes based on the size of deposits has come to an end, does the market size of bank deposits still matter?
In fact, if we re-examine the scale of deposits, we will find that if the deposit cost is too high, the accumulated deposit scale will squeeze the profitability of the bank's asset side, which may lead to the larger the deposit scale, the higher the market share, the greater the operating pressure and the greater the profit pressure.
Therefore, the market competition for bank deposits in the future will be the market share of low-cost deposits, rather than the size of deposits and the market share of deposits.
The competition for deposits in banks will become more and more rational and recognizable, but not all banks can rationally recognize this, so the competition for deposits in the banking industry will be manifested as a chaotic and irrational era.
Second, the adjustment of the bank's deposit strategy has led to the strategic misalignment of the deposit business between the head office and the branches, which has led to the peculiar scene of the head office rushing out of the bank and the branch pulling deposits inward
In the face of the main development trend of deposits in the banking industry in the future, the head office of banks should face the challenge of the continuous narrowing of the net interest margin of deposits and loans, and rational and strategic considerations require banks to vigorously reduce the cost of liabilities, especially to strictly control high-cost deposit products and quotas; at the same time, banks should do a good job in the management and control of liabilities in different cycles, such as time deposits of more than two years will continue to be controlled, deposits within one year will become a priority option, and optimizing the cost structure of the liability side in order to strive to reduce the deposit cost of the liability side will become the key choice trend of all banks。
Theoretically, the head office of a bank should improve profitability by improving management efficiency and reducing management costs, but the rigid financial management system of banks often makes "reducing costs and increasing efficiency" a joke, resulting in more and more strict cost control of all inputs that should be increased, which weakens the competitiveness of market deposits and the competitiveness of high-profit products. However, through the innovation of banking products, comprehensive services, business models and management, it will take a long time to adjust the differentiated and characteristic development strategy of banks. Therefore, strict control of the amount and products of high-cost deposits has become an inevitable option for most banks.
Zhang Yi, vice president of the state-owned bank of China, made it clear at the meeting that in the future, the Bank of China will increase the pressure on high-cost deposits such as large-value certificates of deposit with a maturity of more than three years, and will appropriately control the proportion of high-cost deposits such as agreement deposits, structured deposits, and large-value certificates of deposit with a maturity of more than three years. In the first half of this year, a number of banks proposed to vigorously increase demand deposits and strictly control high-cost deposits.
This will form a new business development pattern: the previous scenario of banks desperately pulling deposits inward will be alienated into the head office of the bank is committed to driving out the high-cost deposits of customers, so as to fully adjust the bank's liability structure and cost structure, so as to strictly control the cost of deposits. However, as the undertaker of the business and the provincial and municipal managers, the bank branches still continue to focus on the market competition pattern of deposit scale and deposit market share, so they often play games with the head office of the bank on the high-cost deposit quota and high-cost deposit products, and the branch hopes to achieve the growth of deposits and complete the deposit indicators through high-cost deposits and long-term deposit business, and only on this basis can the cost structure of deposits and the interest rate structure of deposits be considered.
As a result, a peculiar phenomenon of deposits will emerge: The head offices of banks are desperately trying to catch up with some of their deposits, and most of the branches of banks are still desperately pulling deposits inward, and this phenomenon will seriously hedge against the restructuring of banks' liabilities and the chaotic behavior of the deposit market.
Third, there is a serious contrast between the overall deposit strategy of the bank and the business development of the bank's relationship managers, and the deposit indicators challenge the bottom-line thinking and business logic of the bank's relationship managers
As mentioned earlier, there will be a subversive change in the deposit strategy and business development model of the bank, and there will be a hedging of the deposit policy and the chaos of competition in the head office and branches of the bank. More importantly, the deposit strategy of the head office will face the challenges of the bottom line and business logic of the bank's relationship manager.
Although the deposit strategy of the head office of the bank should be adjusted, the bank has never heard of the grassroots branches and account managers can not do deposit indicators, even the competition of large state-owned banks for deposits is still one bloody battle after another, the size of bank deposits directly frame the upper limit of the bank can issue loans, thus determining the level of bank profitability, and determining the interests of shareholders and the performance of employees. Even if the competition for deposits is not so fierce now, the competition of banks for deposits is in fact still deposits, and the head office of the bank will still issue deposit tasks and indicators to the branches, sub-branches and account managers, which will not change fundamentally, if the bank abandons the assessment of deposit indicators, it will subvert the future development model of the bank, and it is difficult for any bank to bear the uncertain consequences brought about by this change in the short term.
For the relationship manager, from the day the first bank was established and the account manager joined the work, it has become the unshirkable mission of these account managers, even if all the banks have stopped withdrawing deposits is the foundation of the bank, we can not simply think that the bank no longer needs to make deposits, let alone simply understand that the account manager can not pull deposits.
In the previous performance appraisal program of bank relationship managers, various deposit indicators were important indicators, although the grassroots employees, especially the relationship managers, complained about the deposit task indicators, but do you think they can accept that there are no deposit indicators? They still regard deposits as the basis for their life in the bank, and have been working hard for the growth of deposits and hoping to get the performance, rank and promotion they want.
The double standard of the deposit strategy of the head office and branch of the bank has led to the confusion and distortion of the behavior of the account manager, who wonders whether the deposit is still meaningful to the bank at this stage? The distortion is that the bank does not want high-cost deposits and is desperately trying to catch up, and the account manager hopes that no matter what kind of deposit customers can desperately retain and become their own stable customer group.
Deposit customers and loan customers are the customer base of the customer manager, the deposit customer base is more important to the customer manager in the past, and now the loan customer and the deposit customer are equally important, but it does not mean that the deposit customer is not important, the bank can hope to adjust the deposit structure and rush out of the deposit, especially the high-cost deposit, but the customer manager hopes to retain some high-cost deposit customers, the bank continues to reduce the deposit interest rate to suspend the new long-term large deposit and loan quota, although it is more difficult to attract new deposit customers, but it is more difficult for the original deposit customers and loan customers, after all, for long-term cooperative customers to catch up with high-cost deposits will lose the trust of customers, which may cause the account manager to lose some high-quality customers, which is difficult for the account manager to accept.
Although the deposit market has abundant liquidity, customers' willingness to deposit is relatively strong, and medium and long-term time deposits with higher pressure costs can better manage net interest margins, we cannot ignore a basic fact: the growth of bank deposits is almost all completed by time deposits, and the strong willingness to deposit is based on the desire and demand for high-cost deposits and long-term deposits. Reduce the amount of high-cost deposits, and customers and relationship managers want to get more high-cost deposits and high-cost deposits, and the relationship managers hope that banks will provide more high-cost deposit products and high-interest rate deposits to expand more new customers and retain more old customers, otherwise once they lose old customers or are robbed by other banks, it will be really difficult to get back the deposit customers.
Another challenge that cannot be ignored is that it is becoming more and more difficult for high-interest loan customers who can provide high-quality assets, and if they cannot provide the necessary high-interest deposit products to these high-quality loan customers, the loss of these loan customers will lead to the loss of relationship managers, thus creating a vicious environment for the future of the bank.
Do banks still need deposits? Will banks rush out to make deposits? The strategic differences between the head office and the branches, as well as the bottom-line logic of the head office and the relationship manager, will all reflect a certain amount of confusion in the future, do you know what the future of bank deposits will look like?