At the beginning of May, in the domestic pig and soybean meal market, during the festival, the focus of pig market purchase and sales shifted to the middle and second half of the year, by the catering and tourism consumption demand rebounded, the mainstream head slaughtering enterprises closed for holidays, some small and medium-sized slaughtering enterprises orders increased, superimposed, breeding end slaughter shrinkage, pig prices or will be stable in the strong!
Pig market: Before the holiday, pig prices ended weakly and steadily, which was obviously not as good as market expectations!
On the one hand, consumer demand continues to be sluggish, the rise in temperature has inhibited the enthusiasm of consumption, and the price of poultry and eggs is low, the price of improved meat such as beef and mutton is also relatively low, and the lack of obvious benefits for pork consumption is low.
On the other hand, the breeding end of the slaughter pressure bar increased sharply, in particular, the market is generally bearish on the prospect of large pigs in May, the bullish sentiment at the breeding end is loosened, the enthusiasm for subscription is high, the procurement of slaughtering enterprises in the north and south is smooth, and the continuous precipitation in many places in the south further inhibits consumption and also causes the breeding end to be blocked from slaughter!
Under the pressure of many parties, pig prices rose under pressure, and now, into the middle of the holiday, at the beginning of the month, the group pig slaughter plan is less, the supply of live pigs is slightly stronger, and boosted by consumer demand, some slaughtering orders have increased, pig prices in the short term or will show a stable and strong trend!
According to the analysis of institutional data, the slaughterhouse price adjustment pigs, it is expected that on May 2, the pig price will remain at 14.84 yuan / kg, and the price of the slaughterhouse will rise by 0.1 yuan / kg, the market will continue to be strong for a short time, but be wary of the risk of poor consumer demand and downward pig prices after the holiday!
Soybean meal market: At present, the domestic soybean meal spot presents a low-level pull situation, from the market feedback, Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Tianjin, coastal oil mills soybean meal spot price in 3250 ~ 3340 yuan / ton, the price is mainly stable and small!
At present, the bottom of the soybean meal market support is slightly stronger, which is mainly due to the high cost of domestic imported soybeans, according to the analysis of the agency, at present, Brazil's soybean discount in recent months remains high, CNF June shipping discount quotation 140 cents/bu, July shipping quotation 158 cents/bu!
However, in terms of domestic soybean meal supply and demand, in May, according to the sample of 125 oil mills, soybean imports are estimated to be 138.5 ships, and the import of soybeans into the port this month may exceed 9 million tons, and the operating rate of oil mills may increase significantly, and the average monthly crushing level may exceed 8.5 million tons, and the domestic soybean meal spot inventory level will also increase significantly!
However, the demand follow-up is relatively limited, in May, the breeding industry is in the seasonal off-season, the feed consumption level is low, downstream traders and feed enterprises to replenish the soybean meal mentality or will be cautious, therefore, under many factors, soybean meal spot or will maintain the situation of shock lower, however, supported by import costs, the price decline space is limited!
Refined oil market: At the end of April, the 9th oil price adjustment of the year ended with a fall, and the domestic gasoline and diesel prices fell by 70 yuan/ton, equivalent to 92/95 gasoline and 0 diesel fell by about 0.05~0.07 yuan/liter!
According to institutional analysis, since 2024, domestic refined oil has shown a level of "5 up, 2 down and 2 stranded", due to the general narrowness of the decline, the price of gasoline and diesel during the year rose by 805 yuan and 775 yuan / ton respectively, among them, in Shandong, the price of No. 92 gasoline fell to 8.15 yuan / liter, however, compared with 7.51 yuan / liter at the beginning of the year, No. 92 gasoline rose by 0.64 yuan / liter during the year, according to the volume of 50 liters of private cars, in Shandong, it cost 32 yuan more to fill up a tank of 92 gasoline than at the beginning of the year!
According to the domestic oil price adjustment mechanism, at present, a new round of pricing cycle started, however, affected by the May Day holiday, the price adjustment time appeared at 24 o'clock on May 15, the first working day of the end of this round of pricing cycle, the crude oil change rate was -0.22%, gasoline and diesel prices fell by 15 yuan / ton, and there was still a gap of 35 yuan / ton from the decline in oil prices!
However, in the international crude oil market, oil prices "keep falling", according to market feedback, as of 10:45 on May 1, WTI crude oil fell by $0.82 to $81.11 / barrel, and Brent crude oil fell by $0.74 to $85.59 / barrel!
International oil prices show a continuous downward trend, on the one hand, the risk of spillover from the conflict between Iran and Israel has evaporated, and the market's anxiety about geopolitical tensions has weakened; on the other hand, the inflationary pressure in the United States has not decreased, and the Federal Reserve may be difficult to fulfill the expectation of interest rate cuts in the short term.
Therefore, under many factors, international oil prices show a downward trend, which will also ease the pressure on domestic oil prices, if the international oil prices continue to fall, in this round of pricing cycle, the rate of change of crude oil or will run negatively, gasoline and diesel prices or have "2 consecutive declines" expectations!
However, due to the interweaving of long and short markets in the international market, the market outlook is facing severe uncertainty, and it still takes time to test whether the drop in oil prices can be realized.
Attached to the 92/95 gasoline price in all provinces and cities across the country on May 2!
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