In January and April, the parity of land transaction volume fell, and the heat of core cities was differentiated
2. The total amount of TOP100 fell by 19% year-on-year, and the value threshold fell by 32% year-on-year
4. The absence of "Golden Three, Silver and Four" superimposed on the slowdown in supply, and corporate investment continued to remain prudent
Interpretation of the list
Foreword: In April, the land market showed a trend of volume parity and price decline, and the overall situation was still running at the bottom, and the popularity of land auctions was further lower than that of the previous month, and even the heat of core cities was significantly differentiated, reflecting the "desertion" of current land investment.
From January to April, the total value of new goods, total price and top 100 construction area were 672 billion yuan, 302.7 billion yuan and 37.93 million square meters, down 19%, 23% and 8% year-on-year respectively, and the year-on-year indicators turned from positive to negative, and enterprise investment continued to contract.
In the first four months, nearly seventy percent of real estate companies have not yet acquired land, and the sales ratio of the top 100 real estate companies is only 0.16, and the land acquisition is still gathered in the head of the central state-owned enterprises, of which the sales TOP10 land acquisition amount accounts for nearly 60% of the top 100.
Before the market bottoms out significantly and shows a warming trend, real estate companies will maintain a cautious and wait-and-see attitude, and the dynamics of the land market will focus on state-owned enterprises and high-quality core plots.
1
In April, the parity of land transaction volume fell
The heat of the core cities is differentiated
As of April 25, 41.89 million square meters of operating land were traded in 300 cities across the country, unchanged from the same period last year. The average floor price was 2,638 yuan / square meter, which fell significantly from the same period last year. In terms of market heat, the average premium rate in April was 3.5%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month. During the month, only Shanghai, Chengdu and Haikou had an average premium rate of more than 5%, while the other first- and second-tier cities had a premium rate of less than 1%. There was a significant differentiation in market heat among key cities: 12 of the 13 land parcels transacted in Hangzhou during the month, and all land auctions in Xi'an, Nanjing, Changsha and other places were transacted at the reserve price, while the premium rate of residential land in Jinjiang District in Chengdu was as high as 48.5% at the end of the month, setting a new high for the floor price of residential land in Chengdu.
2
The total amount of TOP100 fell by 19% year-on-year
The value threshold fell by 32% year-on-year
From January to April, the threshold value of the top 100 new land reserves was 1.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32%, and the decline remained unchanged, and the threshold value of the top 100 new land reserves and construction area was 640 million yuan and 184,000 square meters respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 29% and 10% respectively, but the decline continued to narrow.
China Resources, C&D and Binjiang ranked among the top 3 seats in terms of new value, with China Resources adding more than 45 billion yuan in value during the year, and C&D and Binjiang participating in Hangzhou's land auction in April to acquire more new land, and the value of new goods during the year also exceeded 30 billion yuan.
From January to April, the total value of new goods, the total price and the top 100 construction areas were 672 billion yuan, 302.7 billion yuan and 37.93 million square meters, respectively, the three indicators decreased by 19%, 23% and 8% year-on-year respectively, and the year-on-year indicators turned from positive to negative, mainly due to the fact that the scale of investment in real estate enterprises in April was not as large as the same period in previous years.
3
The concentration of the sales TOP10 land acquisition amount is nearly 60%.
The land-to-sales ratio of C&D and Greentown is higher than the industry average
In April, the investment of 30 real estate enterprises continued to pick up since February, with an investment amount of 45 billion yuan in April, 17% month-on-month, but due to the high base last year, it fell by 61% year-on-year. In a single month, C&D, Binjiang and Longfor acquired land amounted to 16.3 billion yuan, 7.4 billion yuan and 6.4 billion yuan respectively, ranking among the top three, of which C&D has won in core cities such as Xiamen, Shanghai, Wuhan and Hangzhou, while Binjiang continues to hold heavy positions in Hangzhou. It can be seen that high-quality land plots in core cities are still the first choice for real estate companies.
Overall, the trend of cautious investment has not changed. On the one hand, nearly 70% of the top 100 real estate companies did not acquire land in the first four months, and on the other hand, the land-to-sales ratio of the top 100 real estate companies was only 0.16.
Focusing on the top 10 sales enterprises: first, the sales of the top 10 land acquisition from January to April accounted for 57% of the top 100, and the investment was highly concentrated in the head enterprises; second, Greentown, Yuexiu, Longfor, Binjiang, and C&D ranked similar to the sales ranking, and the land acquisition sales were higher than the industry average, of which the C&D and Greentown land acquisition sales ratio exceeded 0.5; third, the amount of land acquired in the first four months was only Greentown, Longhu, and Binjiang increased compared with last year, while Poly, Investment in China Shipping and other countries has slowed down slightly this year, with the amount of investment in the first four months falling by 62% and 74% year-on-year.
4
The absence of "gold, silver, and four" superimposed on the slowdown in supply
Corporate investment continued to be prudent
At present, from the perspective of the scale of supply and demand, the rhythm of land supply is comparable to the same period last year, the scale of transactions is basically the same as that of the same period last year, the balance of supply and demand in the industry is still being adjusted, since the first quarter of Shanghai, Hangzhou, Hefei and other hot cities have significantly slowed down the pace of land supply, such as Hefei in the past two pre-supply announcements have only released 4 residential land.
Before the relationship between supply and demand and market expectations return to health, the scale of the land market will remain in excess of the decline for a period of time, and the reduction in supply will affect the choice and judgment of enterprise investment to a certain extent.
From the perspective of enterprises, the absence of the "golden three, silver and four" in the property market and the sales below expectations are still the most important factors leading to the continuous prudent investment of enterprises. At the end of the month, the Central Economic Bureau proposed to "study and digest the stock of real estate and optimize the policy measures for incremental housing", and all major cities have more or less relaxed the purchase restriction policy, and it is expected that the market will usher in more policy details in the future. Real estate companies and buyers have a strong wait-and-see mood, before the market significantly bottoms out and shows a warming trend, real estate companies will maintain a cautious and wait-and-see attitude, and the dynamics of the land market will be concentrated in state-owned enterprises and high-quality core plots. (Source: CRIC Real Estate Research)