Before reading this article, I sincerely invite you to click the "Follow" button, so that you can continue to push such articles in the future, and it is also convenient for you to discuss and share, your support is the driving force for us to insist on creating~
Text: Zhang Runchen
Edit|t
introduction
On December 4, 2019, during his visit to Russia, Vučić attended a press conference with Putin, at which Vučić said: "We believe that if Putin had been president in 1999, there would have been no bombing of Yugoslavia!"
(Vučić)
1. Codename "Alliance Force"
The Kosovo region, the starting point of the bombing of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, is also the source of all tragedies. As early as the fourteenth century, Albanians and Serbs in Kosovo lived in a mixed manner, living together peacefully for hundreds of years. However, after the Ottoman Turks conquered Kosovo in the 14th century, their policy of ethnic antagonism led to a bitter feud between the two communities.
After World War I, Serbia established the Kingdom of Yugoslavia, and its Greater Serbian doctrine made national contradictions even more serious. After World War II, Tito, who had a strong personal charm, became the leader of Yugoslavia, and national contradictions were temporarily suppressed. But almost immediately after Tito's death in 1980, ethnic tensions in Kosovo erupted.
In February 1998, Kosovo separatist armed forces "KSL" terrorized the police of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and on 28 February, the army of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia began to attack the base areas of "KSLM", and 80 people, including 25 women and children, were killed by the army. This event is known in history as the "Drenica massacre", and soon after the Kosovo crisis erupted.
(Kosovo crisis)
In 1992, the elder Bush of the United States issued a so-called "Christmas warning" to the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, warning Milosevic of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia that if he took action against Kosovo, then the United States would unilaterally use force to sanction the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. After the "Drenica massacre," the United States pushed the United Nations to adopt Resolution 1160 condemning the massacre of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.
In June 1998, NATO began to hold exercises in Albanian airspace to flex its might against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. After receiving the support of Europe and the United States, the "Kosovo solution" began to carry out all kinds of terrorist attacks in Kosovo with increasing arrogance, and even controlled 40 percent of Kosovo's territory for a time. In late July, the troops of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia began to enter Kosovo to eliminate the "Kosovo solution".
On September 23, the United Nations adopted Resolution 1199, calling for a ceasefire. The United States has also begun to threaten the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and will launch air strikes against it. The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia agreed to implement Resolution 1199, and the clouds of the first war began to dissipate. However, at this very moment, the "KLA" refused to implement the UN resolution and attacked the Yugoslav police by force.
(Bombing of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia)
The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia army fought back again, killing 45 ethnic Albanian civilians in the village of Rachak, an incident known as the "Raczak Massacre", which was also a turning point in the Kosovo crisis. In January 1999, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia agreed to allow a high degree of autonomy in the region, but refused to allow NATO to send troops into the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and Kosovo, and war between the two sides was on the verge of breaking out.
On 23 March 1999, NATO Secretary General issued an order to General Clark to conduct air strikes against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. At 8 p.m. local time on March 24, NATO began to carry out air strikes codenamed "Alliance Forces". On the first day of the air raid, eight countries participated: the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, the Netherlands, and Spain.
At the beginning, the air raids were fairly restrained, and NATO only bombed military facilities and air defense facilities of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. However, on the first day of the air raid, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia shot down an F-117A stealth fighter of the US military, which also forced NATO to raise the risk rating of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.
(War)
Subsequently, NATO began to focus on bombing the ground forces of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in retaliation, but the results of the bombing were relatively limited due to the large number of Yugoslav troops hiding. Eventually, NATO forces began a full-scale bombardment, including the bombardment of ground forces, air defense facilities, military facilities, and even civilian facilities such as roads, railways, and power stations.
In the end, NATO launched a massive bombing campaign against Belgrade, including but not limited to residential buildings, schools, bridges, industrial areas and office buildings. The mainland's embassy in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia was also bombed by NATO at this stage. On 15 April, NATO warplanes began spraying crops with chemicals that destroy crops and began using highly polluting depleted uranium shells.
The 31,000 rounds of depleted uranium munitions used by NATO have had a devastating impact on Serbia, which still has the highest cancer mortality rate in the world. A total of 2,000 civilians were killed, more than 6,000 injured and a million displaced by the 78-day bombing...
(Bombing of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia)
And in the process, in addition to China's fierce condemnation of NATO's actions, Russia's attitude has also begun to quietly change...
Second, what is Russia doing?
Russia's attitude toward the United States can basically be based on the Kosovo War as a dividing line. Before the Kosovo War, Russia's attitude toward the United States was always gradually moving closer to the United States and the West, and after the Kosovo War, Russia began to think about the feasibility of this diplomatic attitude, but the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, as the demarcation point itself, was very sad.
Although Russian-US relations have fallen into a very unstable state since the mid-90s, the Yeltsin government has maintained relative calmness and restraint toward the United States in the Bosnia-Herzegovina crisis, the Chechen crisis, and the Kosovo crisis, although it has great differences with the United States, and has tried to overcome all kinds of difficulties and seek cooperation at other levels.
(Yeltsin)
At that time, the Russian leadership headed by Yeltsin had a consensus that Russia absolutely could not confront the United States, which also led Russia to pursue a foreign policy of cooperation and tolerance with the United States for ten years. At that time, Russia as a whole was in a period of decline, the domestic political situation was unstable, the military was in poor condition, and the former union republics and Warsaw Pact countries were either neutral or turned to the West.
Russia perceives itself as unable to compete with the United States, and Russia has gained considerable benefits from trade with the European Union, so the Yeltsin government believes that trade with Europe is the only good medicine for Russia's economic recovery, and Yeltsin naturally does not dare to break out any conflict with the United States under such circumstances.
Under these circumstances, although Russia is extremely dissatisfied with the US actions in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, it still does not dare to make any substantive moves. In Yeltsin's view, "compromise is always good." During the Kosovo crisis, the Yeltsin government announced that it had halted the ongoing "Russian-US talks on the second phase of the limitation of offensive strategic arms," recalled its representatives to NATO, and redirected its missiles at NATO countries.
(Yeltsin)
However, Russia is the only one that has not sent troops and has not provided any substantial help to the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. And after the Kosovo crisis, Yeltsin went so far as to say: "Russia is still a trustworthy and predictable partner." "In this way, Russia has been given the opportunity to go to the former Yugoslavia for peacekeeping, thereby keeping Serbia to a certain extent.
If Yeltsin did not take into account the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia at all, then this statement is not objective. However, Yeltsin did sit idly by and watch the demise of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, because he could not make up his mind to directly confront NATO, which made Russia miss the last chance. So what if it was Putin? What would he do if it was Putin?
(NATO)
3. If Putin is president
Yeltsin and Putin are essentially two completely different people, and there are two things that prove the difference in character between Yeltsin and Putin. During the first Chechen war in 1996, the terrorist Basayev infiltrated Russia and abducted more than 1,500 people in a civilian hospital, and Basayev demanded that the Russian army immediately withdraw from Chechnya.
Yeltsin ordered the Russian special forces to storm and rescue most of the hostages, but still caused the death of 30 hostages. The terrorists led by Basayev did nothing, and took 130 hostages to transfer. After this defeat, Yeltsin was directly frightened and did not dare to continue to put pressure on the terrorists, and finally agreed to almost all demands except for the withdrawal of troops.
Basayev also left Russia in an armored car, escorted by Russian special forces, Yeltsin was disgraced, and Basayev received the title of "Caucasian wolf". And in the first Chechen war, Yeltsin also lost the war because of his weakness and indecision, and finally de facto acquiesced to the independence of Chechnya.
(Putin)
On the contrary, when the second Chechen war broke out, Putin, who had become the de facto leader of Russia, directly said in the face of Basayev's attack on Dagestan: "As for the Chechen bandits, if we do not do it today, the losses will only be greater tomorrow! No matter where the Chechen bandits hide, the Russian army will wipe them out!"
Putin directly ordered the Russian army to bomb Chechnya into a flat ground, and finally completely pacified Chechnya. And in the face of terrorists like Basayev, Putin has only one sentence: "Forgive them is God's business, and my task is to send them to God." "It follows from this that Putin is an extremely tough person, not only against terrorists, but also against NATO.
Since the Ukraine crisis, Putin has only two words in the face of NATO, that is, toughness. He once made a sharp assessment of NATO: "I don't think NATO is any longer useful, it has no meaning. There is only one meaning, and that is as an instrument of American foreign policy. ”
(Putin)
In the second Chechen war, the Russian-Georgian war, the Syrian civil war, and the Ukrainian civil war, Putin never succumbed to NATO's coercion, and it seems that Putin's way of dealing with this kind of problem is only two words, that is, sending troops! The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been fought for two years now, and NATO is about to build its own arsenal into it, and Putin still insists on not withdrawing its troops, that is, he wants to fight NATO to the end.
If the president of Russia was Putin when the Kosovo war broke out, then Putin would certainly not joke with NATO, and he would have sent troops to the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. Just like in Syria, the U.S. military bombed the Syrian government forces while the Russian army beat the Syrian opposition on the ground.
The reason why Vučić wants to praise Putin is actually very simple, because Putin is different from Yeltsin, and Putin's position has always been very clear.
(Putin)
Resources:
Serbian President Vučić: If Putin comes to power in the morning, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia will be spared. [OL].2019-12-06
One side is ready to intervene, the other side supports Serbia, and the situation in Kosovo affects NATO Russia. 2022/Aug/2/Edition 002
Wu Xin.The Rekindled Balkan Powder Keg——Kosovo War[J].Military History, 2006(11):7.)
Journal of Hebei University of Economics and Business:Comprehensive Edition, 2019, 19(2):8.)
The 25th anniversary of NATO's bombing of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia: The legacy of war still lingers in the shadow of turmoil. 2024/Mar/26/Edition 008