Forest and grassland fire risk trend analysis report
(May 1–May 5, 2024)
First, the overall trend
During the May Day period, there was significantly more rainfall in the south of the Yangtze River and South China, and strong convective weather was frequent, and the temperature in North China, Northeast China and other regions was higher than that of the same period in normal years. The areas with high forest and grassland fire danger levels are mainly concentrated in the eastern and southern parts of North China, the southeastern and southwestern parts of Northeast China, the northeastern part of East China, the southern part of South China, and the eastern part of Southwest China.
It is estimated that the fire danger level of forest and grassland in northern and western Beijing, northeast and western Hebei, eastern Shanxi, eastern Inner Mongolia, eastern Jilin, eastern and southwestern Liaoning, central Shandong, western Hainan, southern Sichuan, and most of Yunnan is expected to be relatively high (level 3). Among them, the forest and grassland fire danger level in the northeastern border of Inner Mongolia, southern Sichuan, eastern and central Yunnan and southern Yunnan is high fire danger (level 4). The forest and grassland fire danger level of Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park is relatively high (level 3), while the fire danger level of forest and grassland in other national parks is low.
Recently, the temperature in the northern region has continued to rise, the windy weather in North China, the Liaodong Peninsula and the Shandong Peninsula is frequent, the precipitation in the southwest and eastern regions is low, the drought continues, the combustibles are very dry and flammable, and the fire danger situation is becoming more and more severe. The competent departments of forest and grass fire prevention should pay close attention to personnel activities and weather changes, especially the extreme weather such as continuous high temperature, drought and strong wind is very easy to cause fires. Recently, lightning activities have been monitored in South China (Wuyishan National Park Monitoring Station), Southwest China (Liangshan Monitoring Station in Sichuan) and Daxinganling area, and the possibility of lightning fires is gradually increasing, so it is necessary to strengthen the early warning and prevention and control of lightning fires. In addition, there is a significant increase in agricultural fire use in spring, so it is necessary to control the dynamics of fire use at all times, put an end to the phenomenon of fire running and accidents, and at the same time strengthen the inspection and prevention of border fires, especially to prevent the burning of agricultural fires outside the border areas of China and Mongolia (grassland fires), China and Vietnam, China and Myanmar, and China and Laos.
National forest and grassland fire risk prediction map from May 1 to May 5
Second, the fire situation in the same period of history
During the May Day period (May 1-5), the number of historical satellite monitoring hotspots in the past 10 years was 619, mainly distributed in Yunnan (153), Inner Mongolia (124), Heilongjiang (96), Guangxi (67), Liaoning (35), Jilin (21) and other provinces and regions. There are many satellite monitoring hotspots in Yunnan, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Jilin, Sichuan and other provinces. Among all satellite monitoring hotspots, forest (grass) fires accounted for 21%, agricultural fires accounted for 42% and 8%, respectively. In the past five years, forest fires are mainly distributed in Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Jilin and other provinces and regions, and the fires caused by agricultural fire account for 25%, the field fire accounts for 17%, the sacrificial fire accounts for 11%, and the lightning fire accounts for 12%.
3. Weather conditions across the country
In the early stage of May Day (before May 3), it is expected that the average temperature in North China, Northeast China, Huanghuai, western Jiangnan, western South China, Shaanxi, eastern and southern Yunnan and other places is 1~4 °C higher than that of the same period in normal years, and the temperature in southern Xinjiang, western Tibet, western Sichuan and other places is 1~3 °C lower than that in the same period of normal years, and the temperature in most of the rest of the mainland is basically close to normal; the cumulative precipitation in Jiangnan, South China, Sichuan Basin, Guizhou, and southeastern Tibet is 50~120 mm, of which the northeast of Guangxi, most of Guangdong, Some areas in western Fujian, central and southern Jiangxi, southeastern Hunan and other places have 150~250 mm, and locally exceed 300 mm; the cumulative precipitation in western Xinjiang, southeastern Northwest China, northern North China, eastern Heilongjiang and eastern Jilin is 10~30 mm, and more than 40 mm locally; the cumulative precipitation in most of the above areas is 5~8 percent more than the same period in normal years, and some areas are more than 1 times more.
In the late May Day period (after May 3), it is expected that the average temperature in most parts of the country will be 1~2 °C higher than that of the same period in normal years, of which the eastern part of Inner Mongolia, Northeast China and Yunnan will be 3~4 °C higher, and the cumulative rainfall in Jiangnan, South China and Guizhou in the mainland will be 20~40 mm, of which 50~80 mm will be in the northern part of Guangxi and the northwestern part of Guangxi.
Early warning tips for counties (districts and cities) with high fire risk across the country
This week, the forest and grassland fire danger level in northern and western Beijing, northeastern and western Hebei, eastern Shanxi, eastern Inner Mongolia, eastern Jilin, eastern and southwestern Liaoning, central Shandong, western Hainan, southern Sichuan, and most of Yunnan is expected to be at a high fire danger level (level 3). Among them, 71 county-level administrative units in the northeastern border of Inner Mongolia, southern Sichuan, eastern and central Yunnan and some parts of southern Yunnan have a high fire danger level (level 4). The details are as follows:
1. Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (3)
Hulunbuir City, New Balhu Left Banner, New Balhu Right Banner, Xing'an League, Arshan City.
2. Sichuan Province (8)
East District, West District, Renhe District, Miyi County, Yanbian County of Panzhihua City, Huili City, Dechang County and Huidong County of Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture.
3. Yunnan Province (60)
Wuhua District, Panlong District, Guandu District, Xishan District, Dongchuan District, Chenggong District, Jinning District, Fumin County, Yiliang County, Shilin Yi Autonomous County, Songming County, Luquan Yi and Miao Autonomous County, Xundian Hui Yi Autonomous County, Anning City, Qilin District, Malong District, Luliang County, Shizong County of Qujing City, Hongta District, Jiangchuan District, Tonghai County, Huaning County, Yimen County, Eshan Yi Autonomous County, Xinping Yi Dai Autonomous County, Yuanjiang Hani Yi Dai Autonomous County, Chengjiang City, Yongsheng County, Lijiang City, Huaping County, Simao District, Pu'er City, Ning'er Hani Yi Autonomous County, Mojiang Hani Autonomous County, Jingdong Yi Autonomous County, Jinggu Dai Yi Autonomous County, Zhenyuan Yi Hani Lahu Autonomous County, Linxiang District, Lincang City, Shuangjiang Lahu Wa Brown Dai Autonomous County, Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Chuxiong City, Lufeng City, Shuangbai County, Muding County, Nanhua County, Yao'an County, Dayao County, Yongren County, Yuanmou County, Wuding County, Honghe Hani Yi Autonomous Prefecture Kaiyuan City, Mile City, Jianshui County, Shiping County, Luxi County, Honghe County, Dali City, Xiangyun County, Binchuan County, Midu County, Nanjian Yi Autonomous County, Weishan Yi Hui Autonomous County, Heqing County, Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture.
The above trend analysis is for internal use of the Forestry and Grassland Fire Prevention Department only
Fire Prevention Center, Department of Fire Prevention, National Forestry and Grassland Administration
Executive Editor-in-Chief|Liu Siwen Email|[email protected]