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一、PMI
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in April, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and was in the expansion range for two consecutive months, and the manufacturing industry continued to maintain a recovery and development trend.
二、BCI
In April 2024, the Commodity Supply and Demand Index (BCI) of the business community was 0.24, with an average increase of 1.88%, reflecting the expansion of the manufacturing economy.
3. BPI
On April 30, the commodity price index BPI was 949 points, an increase of 17 points from the beginning of the month, a decrease of 29.34% from the highest point in the cycle of 1343 points (2021-10-19), and an increase of 43.79% from the lowest point of 660 points on February 3, 2016. (Note: The period refers to 2011-12-01 to the present)
Fourth, the rise and fall of the eight major industry indexes
The top three gainers were the non-ferrous industry, up 7.86%, the building materials industry, up 3.12%, the iron and steel industry, up 2.42%, the agricultural and sideline industry, down -1.77%, and the textile industry, down -0.59%.
| industry | March End Index | End of April Index | Month-on-month gains |
| colored | 1120 | 1208 | 7.86% |
| building material | 962 | 992 | 3.12% |
| steel | 950 | 973 | 2.42% |
| energy | 977 | 998 | 2.15% |
| chemical industry | 850 | 866 | 1.88% |
| Rubber and plastic | 691 | 694 | 0.43% |
| textile | 1018 | 1012 | -0.59% |
| Agricultural and sideline | 1072 | 1053 | -1.77% |
The monthly changes are as follows:
5. Analysis of hot commodities
According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price rise and fall of bulk commodities in April 2024 is shown in the following table, which specifically looks at the commodity analysis of wheat winter, tin, iron ore, forsythia, sulfuric acid, and polysilicon:
| commodity | Prices at the beginning of the month | Month-end price | Monthly ups and downs |
| Wheat Dong | 109.00 | 135.75 | +24.54% |
| tin | 224960.00 | 262910.00 | +16.87% |
| acetone | 7295.00 | 8487.50 | +16.35% |
| Iron Ore (Australia) | 768.89 | 892.11 | +16.03% |
| 镨钕alloy | 437500.00 | 505000.00 | +15.43% |
| Methyl methacrylate | 11750.00 | 13450.00 | +14.47% |
| Praseodymium oxide | 357500.00 | 407500.00 | +13.99% |
| Praseodymium neodymium oxide | 355000.00 | 402500.00 | +13.38% |
| Metal Porridge | 460000.00 | 520000.00 | +13.04% |
| liquefied natural gas | 3870.00 | 4356.00 | +12.56% |
| Monoammonium phosphate | 3096.67 | 2853.33 | -7.86% |
| White cardboard | 5006.67 | 4606.67 | -7.99% |
| dichloromethane | 2525.00 | 2310.00 | -8.51% |
| honeysuckle | 148.33 | 135.00 | -8.99% |
| Petroleum coke | 1655.00 | 1497.50 | -9.52% |
| Silicone DMC | 15260.00 | 13500.00 | -11.53% |
| ammonium chloride | 592.50 | 515.00 | -13.08% |
| Polysilicon | 60333.33 | 52000.00 | -13.81% |
| sulphuric acid | 328.75 | 272.50 | -17.11% |
| forsythia | 151.25 | 115.00 | -23.97% |
1. Mai Dong
The supply of goods traded smoothly and the market rose sharply
In April, the new production in various producing areas of wheat and winter is nearing the end, the heat is still high, the supply transaction is smooth, the holders are reluctant to sell, and the market performance is strong. However, Mai Dong has experienced three years of high prices, the planting area has expanded significantly, and at the same time, this year's growth is good, and the yield per mu is normal, so the output of Mai Dong has increased significantly this year.
2. Tin
Positive support Prices fluctuated and rose
Tin prices fluctuated and rose in April. On the supply side, the supply of tin raw materials is expected to shrink, and the LME tin inventory will continue to decline in 2024, which also provides support for the rise in tin prices. On the demand side, the electronics industry will recover in the first quarter of 2024, and the photovoltaic, artificial intelligence and other industries will develop well, which will greatly promote the growth of the tin terminal consumption field. However, with the recent upward trend in market prices, the spot market is deserted, and the downstream receiving power is insufficient. In the short term, tin will still follow the fluctuations of the broader market and maintain a wide range of fluctuations. In the long run, LME tin inventories will continue to decline, and there is still room for upside in overseas markets.
3. Iron ore
Supply and demand increase, and the market is on the upswing
In April, the iron ore market rose. On the demand side, the profits of steel mills recovered in April, the enthusiasm for starting work improved, and the output of hot metal increased again, which was good for the release of iron ore demand, and the demand in May will still maintain a gradual release trend, but the specific magnitude is unpredictable; On the whole, the iron ore port inventory remains tired, and the demand for replenishment will still be slightly released after the recovery of steel mill profits.
4. Forsythia
Lack of support, the market is sluggish and downward
Forsythia is in the flowering period, this year's weather is normal, as the temperature rises, the production areas have not occurred the phenomenon of spring cold, forsythia from the flowering period to the present growth situation is better, coupled with the actual demand for forsythia is not strong, there are not many concerned businesses, and the production area and market inventory are in quantity, the holder of goods is actively selling, the market is declining. At present, the forsythia market has entered the lowest point in the past 2 years, and the new production is approaching, the business community analysts expect that the short-term forsythia may be in the trough operation, if there is no good weather this year, the market outlook is not optimistic.
5. Sulfuric acid
The bearish pressure on the market is weak and falling
In April, the sulfuric acid market fluctuated in the early stage and fell sharply in the later stage. On the one hand, the raw material sulfur market fell in the second half of the year, and the cost support declined; on the other hand, the terminal demand was poor, the downstream fertilizer industry fertilizer preparation ended, the factory started to decline, and the demand for raw material sulfuric acid declined. Analysts of the business community expect that the short-term sulfuric acid market is difficult to fluctuate greatly or operate weakly, and the market price is between 230-280 yuan/ton.
6. Polysilicon
The game of supply and demand has worsened the decline in the market
In April, the domestic polysilicon market continued its previous decline, and the decline intensified. On the supply side, polysilicon maintains a high operating rate, which is about 8% or more. The output of mainstream large factories is stable, and the superposition of new production capacity has brought increments to the market, and the problem of oversupply is prominent. On the demand side, the downstream demand of PV was weak, and the operation of the crystal pulling end was slightly loosened, mainly due to the increase in wafer inventory and the decline in downstream cell purchases. Analysts from the business community believe that the upstream supply pressure of the photovoltaic industry chain is gradually increasing, but the performance of installed demand is still sluggish, and the upstream and downstream game may become more severe in the later stage, and it is expected that polysilicon will maintain a consolidation trend in the near future.