The coal industry has taken another new step. A few days ago, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions on the Establishment of a Coal Capacity Reserve System" (hereinafter referred to as the "Implementation Opinions"), proposing to deepen the structural reform of the coal supply side, innovate the capacity management mechanism, improve the capacity reserve policy, promote the coal production capacity to maintain a reasonable margin and sufficient flexibility, enhance the supply guarantee capacity, and better play the role of coal in energy supply.
As a pillar industry in mainland energy, coal has long played a pivotal role in promoting national economic and social development. A number of relevant experts said that the release of the "Implementation Opinions" marks the official implementation of the mainland's coal capacity reserve system, which is of great significance for ensuring energy security and stable supply.
The reason for the establishment of a coal capacity reserve system
It is understood that the design capacity of the capacity reserve coal mine is composed of two parts: conventional capacity and reserve capacity. Conventional production capacity refers to the normal production capacity of coal mines under non-emergency conditions, which is independently organized by enterprises according to market conditions and is not included in the scope of unified national dispatch. Reserve capacity refers to the production capacity reserved on the basis of conventional production capacity of moderate scale for peak shaving, which is released synchronously according to the unified dispatch of the state and the conventional production capacity under emergency conditions, so as to realize the "upward elastic production" of coal mines. The sum of the conventional production capacity and the reserve capacity of the capacity reserve coal mine is the design capacity.
The "Implementation Opinions" proposes that by 2027, a coal capacity reserve system will be initially established, and a number of coal mine projects with capacity reserves will be approved in an orderly manner to form a dispatchable capacity reserve of a certain scale. By 2030, the capacity reserve system will be more sound, the capacity management system will be more perfect, and strive to form a dispatchable capacity reserve of about 300 million tons/year, the national coal supply guarantee capacity will be significantly enhanced, and the supply elasticity and resilience will continue to improve.
The relevant person in charge of the National Energy Administration said that the coal capacity reserve system is an innovative measure to strengthen the management of the supply side, the purpose is mainly to improve the elasticity of coal supply, and the capacity reserve target proposed in the "Implementation Opinions" is a concept of production capacity, and the capacity reserve is only a reserve measure to deal with extreme situations, and it is not enabled under daily circumstances.
Recently, the "2023 Annual Report on the Development of the Coal Industry" released by the China Coal Industry Association shows that since the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the country's new coal production capacity has been about 600 million tons/year. The country's raw coal output jumped to 4.1 billion tons and 4.5 billion tons in 2021 and 2022, respectively, and reached 4.71 billion tons in 2023, with an average annual growth rate of 4.5%. According to a comprehensive judgment, in 2024, the quality of the national coal supply system will be improved, the emergency supply capacity will be enhanced, the supply and demand of the coal market will maintain a basic balance, and the medium and long-term contract system will effectively play the role of "ballast" and "stabilizer" for the smooth operation of the coal market.
Guo Zhonghua, director of the Policy Research Department of the China Coal Industry Association, said at the 2023 annual press conference of the coal industry that the total coal supply in the country has reached a new high, and the foundation for energy security is more solid. It is necessary to do a good job in increasing coal production and ensuring supply, and make important contributions to the national energy security and stable supply with the "stability" and "increase" of coal.
In this context, why is there a need to establish a coal capacity reserve system?
The relevant person in charge of the National Energy Administration said that in recent years, the high-quality development of the mainland economy has been solidly promoted, energy consumption has maintained rapid growth, and the impact of uncertain factors such as extreme weather has been superimposed, and there is a tight supply of coal in some areas at some times. The establishment of a certain scale of coal reserve capacity can "upward elastic production" under extreme circumstances such as severe fluctuations in the international energy market, frequent occurrence of bad weather, and rapid changes in the supply and demand situation, quickly release reserve capacity, effectively improve the emergency support capacity of coal, and better play the role of coal in energy supply.
"Through the establishment of a coal capacity reserve system, a certain scale of dispatchable capacity reserves can be formed to ensure that the reserve capacity can be quickly released at critical moments, increase coal supply, meet market demand, and effectively respond to various emergencies. This is not only conducive to ensuring national energy security, but also conducive to maintaining social stability and economic development. Yuan Shuai, deputy secretary-general of the Zhongguancun Internet of Things Industry Alliance, said.
Ensure that coal-fired power can better play a supporting and regulating role
In fact, in 2011, the mainland began to build a coal industry reserve system. In May 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the Interim Measures for the Management of National Coal Emergency Reserves, which clarified that the central government entrusted coal, power and other enterprises to establish national coal emergency reserves in important coal distribution centers, consumption areas, key transportation hubs and other places, to deal with major natural disasters, emergencies and other situations that lead to coal supply interruption or serious shortage, which will be uniformly mobilized by the central government.
In March 2022, Lian Weiliang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a press conference of the State Council Information Office that the mainland would accelerate the construction of more than 200 million tons of government-dispatchable coal reserves. In December 2023, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued the Implementation Opinions on the Establishment of a Coal Mine Energy Reserve System (Draft for Comments), proposing the establishment of a coal capacity reserve system for the first time.
In addition, this year's "Government Work Report" emphasizes that the construction of a large country reserve system should be accelerated and the construction of key reserve facilities should be strengthened. In March this year, the National Energy Administration issued the "2024 Energy Work Guidance", which also pointed out that the establishment of a coal capacity reserve system, strengthen the construction of coal transportation channels and product reserves, and improve the flexibility of the coal supply system. The policy of coal reserve system has been gradually implemented.
According to relevant data from the National Energy Administration, by the end of 2023, the proportion of renewable energy installed capacity in the country will exceed 50%, historically surpassing the installed capacity of thermal power, and the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power will exceed 1 billion kilowatts. Renewable energy generation accounts for about one-third of the total electricity consumption of the whole society, and wind power and photovoltaic power generation maintain double-digit growth.
The importance of renewable energy is becoming more and more significant, is the establishment of a coal capacity reserve system in line with the development direction of green and low-carbon energy?
The relevant person in charge of the National Energy Administration said that coal capacity reserves can effectively improve the flexibility of coal supply, ensure that coal power can better play a supporting and regulating role, promote the high-quality development of new energy, and promote the green and low-carbon transformation of energy.
"Although the proportion of new energy power generation has been increasing in recent years, new energy power generation has the characteristics of instability and is easily affected by meteorological factors. Wu Wei, an assistant professor at the China Energy Policy Research Institute of the School of Management of Xiamen University, told reporters that when there is a rapid growth in energy and power demand, or a decline in new energy output, there will be a shortage of energy and power supply. By building up coal capacity reserves, resources can be quickly mobilized in the event of a surge in energy demand or supply disruptions, ensuring the continuity and stability of domestic coal and power supply. In addition, by establishing a capacity reserve release mechanism, production capacity can be quickly released during the period of rising coal prices, and the fluctuation of coal prices can be stabilized.
Priority will be given to supporting the five major coal supply guarantee bases
Ji Shaoqing, deputy director of the operation department of the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, said in an interview with a reporter from China City Daily that through the construction of a moderately sized reserve capacity, maintaining reasonable and sufficient coal production capacity, and ensuring that the rapid increase in production and supply according to the unified national dispatch under emergency conditions can enhance the elasticity and flexibility of coal supply and effectively cope with cyclical and seasonal fluctuations in coal supply.
"The coal capacity reserve system can give full play to the decisive role of the market in the allocation of resources, better play the role of the government, take the initiative to adapt to the changes in the coal supply and demand situation, form a stable capacity reserve to support policy expectations, and actively guide qualified enterprises to build coal reserve capacity in accordance with the principles of marketization and rule of law. Ji Shaoqing further explained.
The "Implementation Opinions" also mentioned that priority should be given to supporting large-scale modern open-pit coal mines or underground coal mines with a high degree of safety in the five major coal supply guarantee bases in Shanxi, Mengxi, Mengdong, northern Shaanxi and Xinjiang. According to the 2023 Annual Report on the Development of the Coal Industry, the output of raw coal in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shanxi reached new highs of 700 million tons, 1.2 billion tons and 1.3 billion tons respectively, and Xinjiang accelerated the release of advanced coal production capacity, with coal output increasing by nearly 200 million tons compared with 2020.
Wu Wei told reporters that the mainland's coal resources are mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Xinjiang and other central and western provinces and regions, and the establishment of a coal capacity reserve system will drive investment in cities where coal production capacity is located, and economic growth will be boosted in the short term. In the long run, China's economy will continue to grow at a medium to high speed, and coal demand will still grow rapidly in the future, and cities that have established capacity reserves will also benefit from the release of capacity in the future.
Yuan Shuai also held a similar view, saying that from a city perspective, the implementation of the coal capacity reserve system will have a multifaceted impact on the long-term development of the city. First of all, this system helps to stabilize energy prices, reduce urban energy costs, and promote sustainable economic development. Secondly, the establishment of a coal capacity reserve system may promote the optimization and upgrading of the urban industrial structure. With the improvement of the stability and reliability of coal supply, cities can adjust their industrial structure more flexibly and develop industries with low energy consumption and high added value. In addition, the coal capacity reserve system may also bring new investment opportunities to cities. For example, in the construction and operation and management of coal reserve facilities, it can attract the participation of private capital and promote the development of related industries.
Of course, in the process of implementing the coal capacity reserve system, there will be many challenges. Wu Wei believes that on the one hand, new coal production capacity requires a lot of investment, and the main body of investment needs to be clarified. At the same time, the capacity reserve is mainly to prevent the risk of future supply shortage, and it may not be possible to obtain benefits through the release of production capacity in the short term, so it is necessary to clarify the mechanism of subsidies or policy support. On the other hand, the implementation of the coal capacity reserve system needs corresponding policy and legal support, and it is necessary to make specific provisions on the release conditions of the reserve capacity to stabilize investment expectations.
■China City Daily reporter Zhu Lina