The chip industry chain is very large and complex, involving chip design, chip foundry manufacturing and chip packaging and testing, among which the technical threshold for chip manufacturing is very high, especially advanced chips, which not only need the support of high-end lithography machines, but also need advanced process technology.
It is precisely for this reason that TSMC and Samsung, which have mastered advanced process technology, have always had a lot of influence in the semiconductor field.
Just recently, Samsung and TSMC have announced that they will reduce production capacity, and this news has also caused speculation from the outside world, what caused Samsung and TSMC to start reducing production together, is this an appointment in advance?
From the perspective of the demand in the global chip market, TSMC recently announced that it had lowered the output value growth of global chip semiconductors in 2024, from the previous expectation of 20% to about 14%-19%. Although this reduction is not large, it also shows that TSMC is not so optimistic about the recovery of chip demand in 2024.
You must know that from the end of 2022, the global chip market demand has begun to decline gradually. The fluctuation of chip market demand was normal, but this time it was extraordinary.
First of all, the shipment of electronic devices with high demand such as smartphones and PCs has decreased, which naturally affects the demand for chips.
Secondly, due to the global core shortage market environment before 2022, many chip foundries, including Samsung, TSMC, and Intel, are expanding their production capacity, which has led to changes in the relationship between supply and demand after the expansion of production capacity. The demand for chips is smaller than the chip supply chain, which has caused a series of impacts on the chip market.
Then, the United States repeatedly revised the chip ban, restricted the shipment of advanced chips, and took out a $52 billion subsidy to attract foreign manufacturers to build factories in the United States. This has led to changes in the global chip market environment again, and many countries have begun to accelerate the localization of chips, including Japan, Europe, and South Korea, many countries have carried out a series of chip subsidies, which has led to further intensification of competition in the chip industry chain, and the normal development of the global chip industry chain has been greatly affected.
Finally, under the influence of the US chip ban, China began to accelerate the substitution of domestic chips, not only setting the goal of completing 70% of the localization of chips by 2027, but also further accelerating the pace of breakthroughs in advanced process chip technology breakthroughs and mature process chip production capacity expansion.
Today, China continues to reduce the number of chips imported, and even reduced the import of hundreds of billions of chips in 2023. At present, China Chip has 42 wafer fabs, and will add 18 wafer fabs this year, with 37 wafer fabs under construction. This also means that TSMC, Samsung and other manufacturers have further lost the Chinese market.
Many Chinese semiconductor manufacturers, including SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and North Huachuang, have begun to accelerate breakthroughs in the field of semiconductor equipment such as chip foundry manufacturing, chip packaging and testing, and lithography machines. It can even be said that in the fields of chip manufacturing, chip packaging and testing, semiconductor equipment, etc., there are more or less Chinese enterprises that have entered the ranks of the top ten in the world.
There is no doubt that the United States wanted to restrict the development of Chinese chips through a chip ban, but it did not realize that it affected itself and even broke the changes in the global chip pattern. Whether it is for the sake of reducing market demand or for adjusting strategic development, the production reduction that TSMC and Samsung have chosen to reduce is enough to show that the chip market is undergoing great changes.
In this case, China's chip should also be further developed and breakthrough, after all, only by mastering the core technology and completing the localization of chips, we don't need to worry about the problem of chips being stuck.
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