Recently, the Philippine authorities went so far as to claim:
They are completely ignorant of the "gentlemen's agreement" that was once reached with China, and they are ashamed to say that even if there is, it is a matter of the previous government, and they do not recognize it!
This remark is undoubtedly an attempt to make things happen in the South China Sea, and it seems that the Philippines and the mainland must have a break.
The information in this article comes from (Qiangwutang) 2024/4/29, in order to improve the readability of the article, the details may be edited, please read sensibly, for reference only!
Kimiko Ding
China and the Philippines have been in constant friction on the island of Ren'ai Jiao in the South China Sea.
On May 9, 1995, the Philippine ship maliciously ran aground, but as a result, it refused to leave, and even had to build fortifications on Second Thomas Shoal.
How can we put up with this, you must know that Ren'ai Jiao has always been a part of China's Nansha Islands.
We quickly sanctioned the Philippines and surrounded the ship to prevent them from resupplying.
After a long siege, the Philippines also began to bow its head, and we did not embarrass them, so we reached a "gentlemen's agreement" with the Duterte administration at that time. The agreement reads:
The Philippines pledged not to continue to reinforce the wrecked ships at Ren'ai Jiao or to build facilities on the reef, and informed the Chinese side of their plans in advance. In exchange, we agreed that the Philippines would deliver daily necessities to the "beached" ship.
The Gentlemen's Agreement is not an informal written treaty, but for quite some time it did play an active role in managing the South China Sea.
With the agreement, we have saved a lot of trouble, and the situation in the South China Sea has stabilized.
Who would have thought that on the 27th a few days ago, the Philippine National Security Adviser actually began to hype up the "gentlemen's agreement".
He said that the current government did not know anything about this agreement, and if the previous government reached an agreement with the Chinese side, it would now have no effect and no binding force on the current government.
The Philippine defense secretary also claimed that he had never heard of any "gentlemen's agreement" with China, and accused this of being just a propaganda strategy by the Chinese side.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos also joined in the criticism and denial of the "gentlemen's agreement".
He said that if it does, it is undoubtedly a compromise on the Philippines' "territorial sovereignty" in the South China Sea.
This kind of shameless words undoubtedly shocked us very much.
Through this concentrated attack by the top level of the Philippine government, we can also see that they are trying to deny the existence and effectiveness of the "gentlemen's agreement".
The purpose of this is also obvious: to seek a legal basis for the actions they have provoked in the South China Sea.
The intentions are sinister
The Philippines naturally knows the strength of the mainland, and if he dares to pretend to be crazy and stupid, he must have found a backer.
Don't think about it, this is naturally the United States.
On the South China Sea issue, the Philippine government has long been fully prepared to use the support of the United States to deal with China.
The Philippines is confident that it can take advantage of the United States, and of course it has its roots.
On the one hand, the Philippine side believes that the United States will naturally intervene in the confrontation with China in the South China Sea, and on the other hand, there is a mutual defense treaty between the Philippines and the United States, and the Philippine side believes that this treaty can be used to force the United States to come forward and support the Philippine side's actions against China in the South China Sea.
In order to attract the United States to intervene, the Philippine side has even publicly signaled that in the event of an exchange of fire between Chinese and Philippine forces in the South China Sea, resulting in Philippine casualties, the United States will intervene in the war under the mutual defense treaty between the two countries to assist the Philippine military in fighting against China.
In addition to this, the Philippine side also hinted that the South China Sea issue could turn into a large-scale military conflict, which could involve the United States as well.
The Philippines has an incomprehensible assertiveness in the U.S. intervention, but the reality is likely to disappoint them.
Although the United States has been exerting pressure on China over the South China Sea, it may not really be willing to engage in a military conflict with China over this issue. This is completely not in the interest of the United States.
In contrast, the United States is more likely to take advantage of the situation to make profits on the basis of the military confrontation between China and the Philippines, sell a large amount of weapons and ammunition to the Philippines, and earn war profits.
Of course, how will we respond if the Philippine government insists on a military conflict with China in the South China Sea?
Severe punishment will not be granted
First, China will definitely cut off the Philippine supply lines on the Spratly Islands.
At present, the Philippines has small troops "beached" on Second Thomas Shoal and several other islands and reefs, and they rely on constant supply ships to transport food and daily necessities to survive.
Once the Chinese coast guard and navy cut off this supply line, the Philippine military will be in an extremely difficult position.
Secondly, it is possible for us to launch a direct attack on the Filipino servicemen who are "sitting on the beach". After cutting off the other side's supply lines, the Chinese side may issue an ultimatum demanding that the Philippine troops withdraw unconditionally.
If the Philippine side refuses to carry out the action, China may send warships to launch a firepower strike on the Philippine warship and sink it. At the same time, the Chinese side may also directly land on the island and take prisoners of the Philippine soldiers guarding the island.
If this happens, the Philippines will be in a desperate situation. Under the Chinese embargo, it will not be possible to transport more supplies and personnel in the future, and the troops defending the island will inevitably be wiped out or captured.
It is difficult for the Philippine side to fight back and can only be beaten passively. In the end, they had no choice but to face the catastrophe on their own, thus killing themselves.
epilogue
In general, the Philippine government hyped up the "gentlemen's agreement" with very sinister intentions.
However, the Philippines is clearly inferior to ours, and it is probably wishful thinking that they are pinning their hopes on the United States to come to their aid.
Once it gets into war with China, the Philippines will bear China's military attack alone, and will inevitably end up in a situation where it will seek its own death.
I also advise the Philippines not to try to provoke trouble, as this will not lead to good results.
References
(Beijing Daily, 2024/4/30)
(Qiangwutang2024/4/29)