Since the second decline in wheat, the market has basically fallen out of the bold, and the pessimism has also risen again and again.
No matter how battle-hardened people are, it is not surprising that just last year, wheat staged exactly the same market, so it is not surprising.
Later, as May Day approached, the market sentiment improved slightly, and wheat showed signs of stabilization. But everyone is still very worried, afraid that this kind of stabilization is an "illusion", that is, just after stabilization, they will kill back a "return gun", who can stand this?
However, according to our previous analysis, although wheat is still unstable, the space for further downward decline has become smaller, and the new wheat harvest is getting closer and closer, and the handover of new and old has also begun to be put on the agenda, so the downside space of wheat is shrinking.
And as soon as the words landed, the wheat rose.
Why did wheat suddenly go up?
Mainly from "one and a half messages".
Why is it "one and a half"?
That's the case, let's talk about this news first that the temporary storage of wheat has stopped shooting.
According to the relevant notice, since the beginning of May, the temporary storage of wheat trading in Xinjiang has been suspended.
In fact, strictly speaking, this news has little impact, because as we all know, it is not the temporary storage auction that caused the wheat to plummet, but the reserve wheat, and the amount of the temporary storage auction will not have a big impact on the wheat market.
However, this news triggered a big reaction in the wheat market, because it means that the policy level has begun to express its stance and begin to ease the pressure on the wheat market.
The other half of the news is that the central wheat reserve will also suspend the sale of rotation from May, which is the culprit of the surge in wheat supply in the wheat market.
But why is it "half news"?
Because this news is only a rumor and not exact, it can only be regarded as half news.
But don't look at this only "one and a half" news, it also has a lot of impact. Because everyone saw the meaning of the policy, and the response of the flour enterprises was extremely fast, and they immediately began to raise prices and collect grain.
As a result, wheat entered the stage of restorative growth.
As soon as wheat rose and gold was 10,000 taels, the market suddenly became excited again.
But the question is, how long will this wave of rise rise? Is wheat going to start a big counteroffensive?
It may be too early to talk about a major counteroffensive, because there are two things that cannot be ignored:
One is that demand remains weak.
At present, it is the off-season for flour consumption, and even if companies want to boost flour prices, they can't stand the high willingness of dealers to maintain low inventories, and they don't pick up stubble at all.
Even if the price of wheat starts to rise, it will not be enough to pull downstream traders to take the goods in an all-round way.
On the other hand, the aquaculture industry is confusing, the demand for bran is not high, and the demand for flour and by-products is "weak", and it is difficult for wheat to have a significant boost.
How long can the emotional rally last alone?
It's really hard to say.
Second, the rise in wheat also has the factors boosted by May Day.
In addition to the previous "one and a half" news, pre-holiday stocking is also one of the factors that promote the rise of wheat, but it is not known what will be like after the holiday.
Moreover, the key factors in the current wheat market are no longer auctions and demand, but have begun to shift to the production of new wheat.
At present, the new wheat harvest is expected to be higher, if the bumper yield lands, it means that the wheat supply is successful, in addition to the old wheat affected by the new wheat late maturity will have a phased market, the overall loss of feed replacement wheat has been a highlight.
Therefore, before the new wheat production is determined, the rise and fall of wheat may be limited, and the shock mode is basically maintained.
However, no one can analyze the weather, as the so-called providence is unpredictable, and any situation is possible before the moment it really lands.
At the end of this article, thank you for reading!