According to the Ministry of National Defense, the Chinese and Mongolian armies will carry out their first joint military exercise at the end of this month, during which the Chinese side will send battalion-sized troops, carrying various types of weapons and wheeled equipment, to Mongolia to participate in training, further deepening strategic mutual trust and pragmatic cooperation between the Chinese and Mongolian militaries. The exercise is expected to end in late May. Interestingly, just before this military exercise, Mongolia had just given the United States a solid closed door.
[China and Mongolia held the first joint army exercise]
At the end of March this year, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Campbell, known as the "Tsar of the Indo-Pacific," set his first visit to Mongolia after taking office. Judging from the notice issued by the United States and Mongolia, during the visit, the two sides mainly discussed topics such as the establishment of direct flights, deepening the supply chain of critical minerals, and strengthening economic cooperation. However, a few days ago, Mongolia's ambassador to Russia revealed that Campbell also made a request to Mongolia during his trip, hoping that Mongolia would agree to the establishment of a military base in its territory.
In recent years, the United States has put a lot of effort into wooing Mongolia, not only sending high-ranking officials to visit abroad, but also offering Mongolia a lot of lucrative conditions, especially in the economic aspect, for example, Campbell directly proposed to provide $900,000 in aid to Mongolia during his trip. In addition, U.S. allies have been very courteous towards Mongolia, such as the United Kingdom, with which Foreign Secretary David Cameron recently visited Mongolia and signed a cooperation agreement to improve relations.
The reason why the United States and other Western countries attach so much importance to Mongolia is, on the one hand, because Mongolia is sandwiched between China and Russia, and its strategic significance is very special; on the other hand, because Mongolia's "third neighbor" policy has given these countries hope to draw it into their camp.
[Campbell regards Mongolia as his first visit]
The so-called "third neighbor" is an important foreign policy of Mongolia. As a landlocked country, Mongolia shares only borders with China and Russia, both of which have historically included Mongolia in their spheres of influence. From Mongolia's point of view, maintaining stable and close friendly ties with China and Russia is a top priority, but at the same time, it is necessary to strengthen ties with the outside world and be prepared for possible contingencies. Therefore, the concept of "third neighbor" was proposed, that is, to increase contacts with countries other than China and Russia.
For Mongolia, the United States is the most important option in its "third neighbor" policy. First, the United States is strong enough that cooperating with it can expand its influence on a global scale; second, the United States has a special relationship with China and Russia, which can play a role in balancing China and Russia to a certain extent. Moreover, the United States is geographically far enough away from Mongolia to feel much less oppressive.
One intends to get closer, the other intends to win over, and the United States and Mongolia can be regarded as "hitting it off". But we all know that cooperating with the United States is a very risky thing, just take the fact that the U.S. military wants to set up a military base in Mongolia.
For the U.S. military, establishing a base in Mongolia can help the U.S. military monitor and understand the moves of China and Russia, provide a platform for the U.S. military to quickly deploy troops, equipment and supplies to the Asia-Pacific region, and also facilitate its linkage with allies, such as Japan and South Korea.
[Mongolia rejected the request of the US military to build a military base]
But for Mongolia, if it agrees to the US military's demands, it will be tantamount to ceding part of its sovereignty, and it will also increase tensions in the Asia-Pacific region and make itself a potential target for military conflict. Putting yourself in such a dangerous situation for the sake of some "big pie" that I don't know if it will come to fruition is obviously not a good deal.
Based on this, Mongolia decisively rejected the US demand, and its officials said that Mongolia would not allow the US military to build military bases on its territory, and that it was unrealistic for the West to expect Mongolia to participate in strategic operations against its partners. After decisively rejecting the US military, Mongolia immediately turned its head to conduct joint military exercises with China, in addition to using practical actions to dispel the United States' mind, but also to send a signal to the outside world, especially China.
In order to persuade Mongolia to set up a military base, the United States will inevitably make attractive economic promises, but Mongolia has rejected this "bait" and naturally wants to make up for it on China. Judging from the current situation, Mongolia urgently needs China's help in two things:
【Sino-Russian natural gas pipeline project transiting Mongolia】
First, Mongolia wants China to invest more in it. As a landlocked country, Mongolia's economic development is plagued by geographical location and resource scarcity, for which foreign investment and aid are important. China is not only its neighbor, but also its largest trading partner, and if it can increase investment in infrastructure construction, energy development and agricultural cooperation, it will greatly promote Mongolia's economy.
On the other hand, it is hoped that the gas pipeline between China and Russia passing through Mongolia will be finalized as soon as possible. Once finalized, the pipeline could bring significant benefits to Mongolia, including jobs during construction, skilled jobs needed to operate and maintain the project, and the costs associated with gas transmission. At the same time, the pipeline could help Mongolia improve its energy mix and reduce its dependence on coal.
In fact, although Mongolia is constantly strengthening its ties with the West, the probability of it completely falling to the United States is extremely low in the context of the need for cooperation and interests with China and Russia. However, we should also be vigilant about this, and we should be cautious in our cooperation with Mongolia and be prepared to deal with risks at any time.