The U.S. election will not be voted until November this year, although the Democratic and Republican parties have not yet finalized their "presidential candidate" nominees, but judging from the primaries of the two parties, Biden and Trump have locked in the nomination of the two parties, but they are only waiting for the two parties to announce when the national convention is held. Judging from the actual situation, there is no problem with Biden's health, and although Trump is riddled with lawsuits, judging from the ruling of the US High Court, it will not affect his participation in the election. In this way, it is a high probability that Biden and Trump will become candidates of both parties and enter the final of the US election, and there is no suspense.
So, if Biden and Trump face off again in 2024, what will be the result? Will Biden continue to win, or will Trump take revenge? The latest polling data in the United States has made Biden a little embarrassed. According to the Global Times, the latest CNN poll shows that among registered voters in the United States, Trump's approval rating is stable at 49%, while Biden is only 43, and one of the most critical data is that when asked to choose between these two, 43% of voters chose Trump and only 31% chose Biden.
In other words, the gap between Trump and Biden has exceeded 10 percentage points, and if he votes now, even if many allies support him, Biden will still lose to Trump, because the majority of Americans do not want to choose him. What do you think about this? Let's talk about three topics.
First, in the eyes of American voters, where is Biden "inferior to Trump"?
The first is the handling of hotspot conflicts. Take the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as an example, Biden resolutely insisted on Ukraine and sent a lot of money and weapons, which also disgusted the American people and the media, because now "the landlord's family has no surplus food", and the American media even moved his anger to Ukrainian President Zelensky, saying that "a man in a green military uniform has been extorting cash from the White House, please go away, we don't have any money."
Trump's attitude is very different from that of Biden, saying that "if elected, he will not give Ukraine another penny." Trump also said that "if elected, he will call Putin and Zelensky that night and cease fire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 24 hours." Americans don't want to fight, and they don't want to pay for it, and Trump has gained a lot of impression points after making such a promise.
In the handling of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Biden has the lowest approval rating, only 28%, and the proportion of disapproval is as high as 71%. At this point, Trump can be said to "lie down to win", because now it is not him who is in power, and no one supports Biden to do this, he can say the opposite.
Second, there is the Taiwan issue. Biden has publicly stated that he "wants to protect Taiwan by force", but after all, this is interference in China's internal affairs, which may lead to a conflict with China, which makes Americans very unhappy, asking the Biden administration "Is it necessary for us to die for Taiwan". Trump, on the other hand, was more tactful, saying that "it is too stupid for Biden to make such a statement publicly", and if he is elected, he will not make a clear statement about it. Moreover, the Taiwan region has robbed the US semiconductor industry, and the US side will pursue it. At this point, it is still Trump who scores higher than Biden.
Finally, there is the issue of immigration. Biden hopes that more immigrants will come to the United States to promote the economic construction of the United States. But Trump believes that too many immigrants are not a good thing, on the one hand, criminals and drug addicts may also infiltrate the United States, making the United States more chaotic, and on the other hand, too many immigrants also take American jobs, making the US government face employment problems. At this point, Biden and Trump even fought in the "ring" in Texas, but the American people still chose to support Trump, after all, he protects his own interests.
Second, is it possible for the Democratic Party to use a lawsuit to pull out the "nail" of Trump?
At present, Trump is facing as many as 91 criminal charges alone, as well as many civil charges, and he can be regarded as a "unique landscape" among previous US presidents. Joking aside, Trump's current time, except for holding campaign rallies and going back and forth between courts, may not even have time to play his favorite golf. So, will Trump's ongoing lawsuit be beneficial to Biden? At present, it seems that this possibility is not very large.
On the one hand, Trump's most "dangerous" lawsuit is his alleged involvement in the "Capitol riot case", which was described as an "unprosecuted accomplice" in the case, but in the end, the US High Court ruled in favor of Trump on the "presidential election qualifications". This also shows that trying to block Trump's participation in the election through a lawsuit is basically unworkable. The US media even believes that if Trump is finally elected president, he may use his presidential status to exempt himself or instruct the Justice Department to withdraw the lawsuit after he is officially inaugurated.
On the other hand, Trump's team has a special hand in "critical public relations". They used the U.S. judiciary to constantly "interrogate former presidents" to make Trump a "tragic hero" and an "indomitable" fighter. The end result is that the more Trump is tried, the more his approval ratings rise, making Biden anxious.
Third, none of the allies want Trump to make a comeback.
In the last administration, Trump put forward the so-called "America First" strategy, led the United States to withdraw from many international groups, and even threatened to "withdraw from NATO" without playing with allies. Against this background, the United States must take the benefits first, the allies must pay more "protection money" to the United States, and in the economic and trade areas, the allies must also implement the "America First" policy, otherwise the United States will punish them. Four years later, allies are complaining loudly that "the world has been suffering from Trump for a long time," and because of this, they don't want Trump to enter the White House again.
Europe was the first to take a stand, with ECB President Christine Lagarde saying that "if Trump is elected, he is a threat to Europe". EU Internal Market Commissioner Breton said Trump had privately said that the United States would "never" come to the aid of the EU if it was attacked militarily. It also shows that Europe does not have a good impression of Trump, because Republican presidents are more inclined to "go it alone", while Democratic presidents tend to "pull allies together", especially European allies. Therefore, they prefer Biden to stay in office.
Recently, NATO also put forward a plan to "set up a five-year military aid fund of 100 billion euros" to prevent Trump from "picking on aid" to Ukraine after his election. In other news, Zelensky is currently negotiating with the United States to reach an agreement on providing military and financial support to Kyiv for the next 10 years. This action is mostly to prevent Trump. In this regard, Trump said that if elected, he would "retaliate with a tooth for a tooth" and launch a retaliation against Europe.
It is worth noting that South Korea, the Asian ally of the United States, has also made moves, and they are negotiating with the United States to reach an agreement on "defense spending" for the next decade, and of course, "to prevent Trump from coming to power", because Trump has said that he wants South Korea to increase the "protection fee" by five times the current level. The current trend is that allies support Biden's re-election, but the majority of American voters want Trump to take office. It seems that this year's US election will be very lively.