The Philippines is currently conducting a "shoulder-to-shoulder" joint military exercise with the United States, France and Australia, with more than 16,000 troops participating in the exercise, and 14 countries, including Japan and India, as observers. In the information disclosed by the Philippine side before, it was said that three locations were selected as exercise sites for the three-week military exercise, namely the Luzon Strait, the west side of Luzon Island and Palawan Island. From the map, it is not difficult to find that these three locations correspond to the Taiwan Strait, Huangyan Dao and Nansha Islands. In the second half of the exercise, the Philippine side finally couldn't help it anymore and launched a provocation against Scarborough Shoal.
According to the Observer, on April 30, the China Coast Guard released information that the Chinese Coast Guard had driven away the 4410 coast guard ship and 3004 official ship that the Philippines had invaded the waters near Scarborough Shoal in accordance with the law. Although the number of words is not very large, and I did not make more comments, I am afraid that it is unusual for the Philippine side to make such a move against the background of the current unpleasant Sino-Philippine relations and the fact that the Philippines is holding "the largest military exercise in history". In this regard, we will talk about three topics.
First, the focus of the Philippine provocation has been on Ren'ai Jiao, so why did it shift to Scarborough Shoal this time?
Since the beginning of this year, the Philippines has carried out its first "airdrop of supplies" at Ren'ai Jiao, and it has not been inspected by the Chinese side; the Philippine coast guard has also brought Western reporters to shoot on the spot, and deliberately rammed with a Chinese law enforcement vessel, and maliciously edited it after returning home to produce materials to smear China. Moreover, the Philippine side also said that it would repair the beached ship at Ren'ai Jiao, "firmly weld it to the sea", and even if the beached ship disintegrates, "it will build a landmark building in the water".
What do you want to do? Of course, it is to declare the so-called "sovereignty" and act against the Chinese side. Now the left-behind personnel on the beached ship are not ordinary crew members at all, but members of the Philippine Navy's special combat team, and judging from the supply photos, the Philippine side also raised the national flag on the beached ship. The last time the chief of the Philippine Army's General Staff was "disguised" and mixed up on a beached boat, he not only held a large-scale dinner, but also commended the military personnel left behind. To put it bluntly, the Philippine ship not only deliberately "ran aground" in China's waters, but also deployed military personnel and hoisted the national flag, which was a very vicious violation.
One of the main reasons why the Philippine side has been "exerting force" at Ren'ai Jiao before this is that with the beached ship here, the Philippine side can find a reason for "supply" and keep approaching. It can also be said that the Philippine side made such a choice at that time, which was "a little polite", after all, there are no good "reasons" for other islands and reefs to approach. But now it is completely different, not only the invasion of Scarborough Shoal, but also the arrival of coast guard ships and official ships, which is equivalent to a "military-government joint operation", and it is also a bit of a "test of China's bottom line" in the context of joint military exercises between the Philippines and external forces in the vicinity.
It has been observed that the western side of Luzon Island, where the Philippine side conducted the exercise, is only 200 kilometers away from Scarborough Shoal, and the Philippine side has already deployed the "BrahMos" cruise missiles imported from India in this direction, with a range of 290 kilometers, completely covering Scarborough Shoal. Moreover, the Philippine side is also preparing to test-fire the "BrahMos" for the first time in this exercise, and what will be used as a "target ship" is a large oil tanker that China once aided the Philippines, and was later converted into a support ship by the Philippine side.
Put the three actions together, and everyone will be clear. The exercise was mainly aimed at China, and the target was Scarborough Shoal, which is also the closest Chinese island to the Philippine mainland, and the attitude was to "sink the Chinese ship with a missile". From this point of view, after the United States deploys medium-range missiles in the Philippines and the Philippines introduces "BrahMos" cruise missiles, the target of key provocations may be shifted from Ren'ai Jiao to Scarborough Shoal, because the Philippine military has also made it clear that from this year onwards, the Philippine military will expand the scope of defense, extending from territorial waters to the exclusive economic zone and even the disputed area.
Second, the only external forces that really support the Philippines are the United States and Japan.
Since the beginning of 2024, the Philippines has conducted joint patrols and military exercises with the United States, conducted joint patrols with Australia, and conducted trilateral joint military exercises with the United States and Japan, and for the first time placed the location of the exercises in the so-called "disputed waters". In the "shoulder-to-shoulder" four-nation exercise currently being held with the United States, France, and Australia, only the United States really supports the Philippines, while France and Australia are just here to make their presence felt.
Because after the United States, Japan and the Philippines reached a new security agreement on the South China Sea, the French Pacific Sea Zone also reached an agreement with the Southern Theater of the People's Liberation Army, which will jointly maintain regional peace and stability, that is to say, France does not want to offend both sides, and both sides participate; and the new Australian government is closely linking with China, after the relationship between the two countries breaks the ice and warms up, Australia hopes that its export products can re-enter the Chinese market, which is the most important thing for Australia, and the last Morrison government was ousted by voters because of blindly following the United States and implementing a provocative policy against China。
In addition to reaching a new agreement with the Philippines, the United States has also deployed medium-range missiles in the Philippines, and President Biden also reiterated in the presence of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos that the United States will fulfill the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty." U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Aquilino even said that if the Philippines suffers casualties in the South China Sea, Article 5 of the treaty can be invoked. Marcos also confirmed this and showed the bottom line to China - if the Philippine military is attacked in the South China Sea, the US military will be invited to intervene.
Another country that supports the Philippines is Japan. First, Japan is a follower of the United States, and Japan will do whatever the United States does, and in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, Japan is already deeply involved, so it is naturally not bad to support the Philippines; second, Japan also hopes to contain China's rise, and Japan is participating in any move to contain China. For example, Japan has recently officially joined the AUKUS military alliance of the United States, Britain and Australia, and the most important task of this military alliance is to deal with China, and its mission area is also in the South China Sea, and the Philippines has been set up as a "pioneer in provoking trouble", and Japan naturally wants to support it.
Third, to the Philippines, the Chinese side has already said hello.
Last week, the Chinese side disclosed that the former Philippine government and China had reached a "gentlemen's agreement" on the management of Second Thomas Shoal, and the current Philippine government has also implemented it for seven months. The Marcos administration and the Philippine military have also reached an "understanding" with the Chinese side, but the Philippine side has broken the agreement after only one implementation, which is untrustworthy. In this regard, Marcos and the Philippine military did not even admit it, saying that "no agreement has ever been reached with the Chinese side." Against this backdrop, China will no longer trust the current Philippine government.
China has reminded the Philippines to "pull back from the precipice", immediately stop its violations and provocations, and return to the track of abiding by and implementing the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea as soon as possible, and made it clear that China is firmly determined to safeguard its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests. China has also warned the United States not to stir up trouble in the South China Sea, as creating a "small circle" in the South China Sea will not only fail to solve the problem, but will ultimately undermine its own security. If the United States and the Philippines still insist on provoking China's sovereignty, then China will have no way out, and the rest may only be a showdown.