Yu Shuaiqing/from Beijing
The land market is showing a trend of hot and cold unevenness.
On April 25, the Shanghai land exchange market issued two announcements on the transfer of state-owned construction land use rights, transferring a total of 4 state-owned construction land use rights in Yangpu District, Minhang District, Songjiang District and Pudong New Area, with a total starting price of 9.352 billion yuan and a total transfer area of 156,800 square meters.
"The overall supply of land is relatively high-quality, which will continue the previous land auction heat, but there is still a certain differentiation between land plots, and the competition for core land plots such as Yangpu District and Pudong New Area will remain fierce. Gao Yuansheng, executive deputy general manager of the East China Region of the China Index Research Institute, said that state-owned enterprises and central enterprises will still be the mainstream of land acquisition.
On April 16, 6 residential plots were transacted in Shanghai, with a transaction area of 195,000 square meters and a transaction value of 11.886 billion yuan. Judging from the transaction results, among the 6 plots, in addition to the Putuo Taopu Science and Technology Smart City plot and the Jiading New Town Juyuan plot at the reserve price, the Pudong Caolu plot was won by Xiangyu Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Lianhong Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. at a premium of 6.49%, Longfor won the Fengxian New Town plot at the top, the Jing'an Zhongxing plot was won by Hangzhou Yile Industrial Investment Co., Ltd. (Yuexiu) by the lottery, and the Dahua lottery won the Minhang Pujin plot.
"Shanghai still has a certain premium rate, and some plots still need to be carried out through the lottery, indicating that Shanghai's land investment market is still optimistic. Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, said.
It is worth noting that on the same day, a land auction was also held in Hangzhou. This time, 8 residential plots were traded in Hangzhou, with a transaction area of 372,300 square meters and a transaction value of 16.72 billion yuan. The 8 parcels are located in Shangcheng District, Gongshu District, Xihu District (2 cases), Yuhang District, Xiaoshan District (2 cases) and Qiantang District. Judging from the transaction results, except for the Xinjie unit XSCQ150101-08 plot that was traded at a premium of 1.8%, the rest of the plots were traded at the reserve price.
Hangzhou has seen two land auctions drop in popularity.
Previously, in the second batch of land auctions in Hangzhou in 2024 held on March 29, among the 5 residential plots listed, 2 were sold at the reserve price, 2 were unsold, and only 1 was sold at a premium, with a premium rate of 23.6%.
Compared with the first land auction held in Hangzhou this year, the popularity of the above two land auctions has dropped significantly. On February 27, in the first land auction in Hangzhou, all 7 residential plots were sold at a premium, with a total transfer amount of 11.16 billion yuan and an average premium rate of 19.1%, which was quite popular.
In the case of the emergence of "land kings" in many places across the country, the land auction market in Hangzhou, which has always been independent, is sluggish. A person in charge of real estate investment in Hangzhou said, "This may be related to the lack of confidence of enterprises and the unsatisfactory quality of land supply in Hangzhou in recent times." ”
According to data from the Qianbao Institute of Good Life, in the first quarter of this year, 10,153 houses entered the market in Hangzhou, down 45.2% year-on-year, and 14,845 new commercial houses were sold, down 46.8% year-on-year.
Some developers said frankly, "Hangzhou has indeed launched some plots with bad texture, and under the current market situation, everyone is still optimistic about the core area, and the first and second houses have upside-down plots." ”
"In terms of overall trends, the land auction market in Hangzhou and Shanghai has shown a certain cooling trend compared to last year, but the land auction in Shanghai has shown better resilience compared to Hangzhou. The high school student said.
The land market is further fragmented
The national land market is uneven, and the differences between different cities and different land plots are gradually widening.
According to the monitoring data of Zhuge Data Research Center, in March this year, the planned construction area of land supplied by major prefecture-level cities across the country was 28.006 million square meters, down 35.5% year-on-year and up 55.5% month-on-month, and the planned construction area of transacted land was 18.197 million square meters, down 38.2% year-on-year and up 52.5% month-on-month.
In the first quarter of this year, the land supply and transaction scale of major prefecture-level cities across the country also showed a year-on-year downward trend. Among them, the planned construction area of the supplied land was 65.343 million square meters, down 26.5% year-on-year, and the planned construction area of transactions was 59.125 million square meters, down 14% year-on-year.
In terms of data, although there was an increase month-on-month, there was a significant year-on-year decline. It can be seen that the market is gradually recovering, but the overall situation has not yet recovered to the level of the same period last year.
It is worth noting that although the overall market is slightly weak, some core cities have seen high-priced land plots. In March, many cities such as Suzhou, Xiamen and Ningbo saw real estate companies "scrambling" for high-quality land plots, and after the land auction in some cities "canceled the price limit", the floor price also returned to a new high in the region.
At the end of March, a plot of land in Changping, Beijing, attracted 17 real estate companies to participate in the on-site auction, and finally reached the top of the lottery transaction; after 51 rounds of bidding battles, the No. 02 plot of Shuanghu plate in Suzhou Industrial Park was finally won by Greentown Group with a floor price of 65,022 yuan/square meter and a premium rate of 18.22%, setting a new record for the highest floor price in Jiangsu Province; in the first round of centralized land supply in Shanghai in 2024, 5 parcels of land won 13.41 billion yuan, of which 4 parcels were capped and lottered, 9.07% After more than 1 hour and 153 rounds of bidding for the first land auction in Xiamen, the 2024P01 plot of the General Ancestral Hall in Siming District was won by Guomao Real Estate at a total price of 3.21 billion yuan, equivalent to a floor price of 62,700 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 40.79%, becoming the "new land king" of the floor land price in Xiamen Island.
Behind the continuous emergence of such high-priced land plots is the continuous development of policies at both ends of supply and demand and the boost of confidence in real estate companies. According to the ranking of the top 100 real estate companies in land acquisition released by the China Index Research Institute, in the first three months of this year, the total amount of land acquired by the top 100 enterprises was 221.7 billion yuan, an increase of 14.9% year-on-year. Central enterprises and state-owned enterprises are still the main force in land acquisition, but the enthusiasm of private real estate enterprises and new forces in the industry is also rising.
It is worth noting that not all cities have a hot land auction market, compared with Suzhou, Xiamen and Ningbo, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Foshan, Shaoxing, Weihai, Dezhou, Liaocheng, Yantai and other places land auctions are mostly sold at the reserve price, and the premium rate is relatively low.
"Due to the impact of market expectations in the first quarter, the sales liquidity, especially the speed of the project, has slowed down, resulting in real estate companies being more cautious when acquiring land, and the flow rate and profit requirements of the land have become higher. The high school student said.
On April 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released the basic situation of the national real estate market in the first quarter of 2024, with the national real estate development investment in the first quarter being 2,208.2 billion yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year, and the area of new housing construction being 172.83 million square meters, down 27.8%.
According to the data of CRIC Research Center, in March, the transaction area of commercial residential buildings in Hangzhou was 78.4 square meters, up 280% month-on-month and down 42% year-on-year, and the average transaction price was 33,289 yuan/square meter, up 18% month-on-month and stable year-on-year. Judging from the monitoring of new openings, the comprehensive winning rate of commercial housing in Hangzhou in March was 34%, down 53% month-on-month, and the average de-conversion rate was 55%, up 16% month-on-month.
While the market as a whole is still recovering, most developers remain cautious about the market's expectations.
"Reducing quantity and improving quality" has become the main theme of land supply in various places
"This year's land market is characterized by a decrease in supply but an improvement in quality under the government's strategy of "reducing quantity and improving quality". The high school student said.
The strategy of "quantity reduction and quality improvement" has been clearly reflected in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou and Hefei, where many high-quality land plots have appeared, attracting the active participation of many real estate companies. The continuous rise in transaction floor prices is a strong demand and competitive situation for high-quality land plots in the market.
According to data from CRIC Research Center, in the first quarter of 2024, a total of about 500 cities will release land supply plans, and the number of cities will decrease by 30% compared with the same period in 2023. It was found that the planned supply of residential land in 2024 will only be 18,300 hectares, a decrease of 18% compared with 2023. Among them, Shanghai, Hefei, Xuzhou and other cities have declined in the past three years, combined with the new housing cycle in each city, most cities are actively adjusting the scale of supply and demand, and more than 6 percent of cities have lowered the supply of residential land plans in 2024.
Taking Shanghai as an example, the supply volume will be significantly reduced in 2024, and the first batch of 11 parcels of land will be supplied this year, 8 parcels less than last year, but the quality of supply has been significantly improved, not only high-quality plots in the central urban area of Zhongxing Road in Jing'an, but also hot plate plots such as Minhang Gumei, Pudong Cai, and Yangpu Changhai. Driven by high-quality land plots, the overall premium rate of the first round of land auctions in Shanghai in 2024 hit a new high since the centralized land supply in 2021, reaching 9.07%.
In this context, the land acquisition strategy of real estate companies has also undergone a significant change, no longer blindly pursuing quantity, and paying more attention to the quality of land plots and future profit margins.
At the 2023 Greentown China Results Conference, Guo Jiafeng, Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer of Greentown China, said, "In 2023, the Company actively participated in nearly 200 land auctions in first- and second-tier cities such as Hangzhou, Shanghai, Beijing and Xi'an, and added 38 new projects throughout the year, with an additional value of about 142.5 billion yuan. Among the newly expanded value, the first- and second-tier cities accounted for 84%, and the new expansion value of the three cities in Beijing, Shanghai and Hangzhou accounted for 58%. The continuous concentration of high-energy cities and high-energy sectors has further enhanced the company's ability to resist risks. ”
In an interview with the media, the person in charge of real estate investment said that the funds of each enterprise are limited, and in the case that the overall market is not a bull market, it is an inevitable choice to select the best of the best projects. Many real estate companies are secretly gathering funds and waiting for high-quality land plots to be listed, rather than taking land for the sake of taking land, which is the main reason why the land has been cold recently.
In addition, the local government's control of existing housing prices has also affected the participation strategy of real estate companies to a certain extent. Gao Yuansheng said, "Due to the limited space for housing prices and land price differences, real estate companies will have further requirements for the premium rate when participating in the auction. If the premium rate is too high, the profit margin of the enterprise will be squeezed, and even face the risk of loss. ”